投资咨询号: Z0021177 从业资格号: F03101843 2026/1/8 | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 | 中国出口集装箱运价 | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 综合指数SCET | 指数CCFI | | | | | | 景 | 现值 | 1656 | 1147 | 2188 | 1250 | 3033 | 1690 | | | 前值 | 1553 | 1125 | 1992 | 1301 | 2846 | 1533 | | 运 | 涨跌幅 | 6.66% | 1.95% | 9.84% | -3.92% | 6.57% | 10.24% | | # | | | | | | | | | 1日 | | SCFIS-西北欧 | SCFI-地中海 | | | | | | 数 | | | | | | | | | | 现值 | 1795 | 3143 | | | | | | | 前值 | 1742 | 2833 | | | | | | ...

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of A-shares as of December 19, 2025, shows the CSI All Share Index (excluding ST stocks) with a PE of 21.1 times and a PB of 1.8 times, positioned at the 77th and 39th historical percentiles respectively [2][5] - The Shanghai Composite Index has a PE of 11.7 times and a PB of 1.3 times, at the 61st and 40th historical percentiles [2][5] - The CSI 300 Index has a PE of 14 times and a PB of 1.5 times, at the 62nd and 34th historical percentiles [2][5] - The ChiNext Index has a PE of 39.9 times and a PB of 5.4 times, at the 32nd and 61st historical percentiles [2][5] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th historical percentile include Real Estate, Retail, and IT Services (Software Development) [2] - Industries with PB valuations above the 85th historical percentile include Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communications [2] - The Medical Services industry has both PE and PB valuations below the 15th historical percentile [2] Industry Economic Tracking New Energy - The photovoltaic industry chain prices remained stable, with battery cell spot prices rebounding by 8.1% [2] - The price of polysilicon futures increased by 6.4%, while the price of lithium carbonate rose by 7.4% [2] - Concerns about tightening lithium supply emerged due to local mining permit cancellations [2] Real Estate Chain - The average sales area of commercial housing in China from January to November 2025 decreased by 7.8% year-on-year, with a notable decline in real estate investment by 15.9% [3] - The price of rebar increased by 1.2%, while iron ore prices rose by 1.6% [3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs increased by 0.9%, while the wholesale price of pork rose by 0.2% [3] - Retail sales from January to November 2025 grew by 4.0% year-on-year, showing a slight decline in growth rate compared to the previous ten months [3] Midstream Manufacturing - Manufacturing investment from January to November 2025 increased by 1.9% year-on-year, while infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 1.1% [3] - Heavy truck sales in November 2025 surged by 65.4% year-on-year, with new energy heavy trucks seeing a significant increase in sales [3] Technology TMT - The production of integrated circuits and optoelectronic devices in China increased by 10.6% and 9.7% year-on-year respectively [3] Commodities - The price of Brent crude oil futures fell by 1.1% to $60.55 per barrel, amid rising supply pressures [3] - The price of thermal coal decreased by 5.6%, while coking coal prices rose by 0.5% [3]

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of the A-share market as of November 7, 2025, shows the CSI All Share Index (excluding ST stocks) with a PE of 21.5x and a PB of 1.8x, positioned at the 80th and 41st historical percentiles respectively [2][3] - The Shanghai 50 Index has a PE of 11.9x and a PB of 1.3x, at the 64th and 39th historical percentiles [2][3] - The ChiNext Index has a PE of 41.3x and a PB of 5.2x, at the 58th and 60th historical percentiles [2][3] - The valuation of the semiconductor industry is notably high, with a PE of 99.7x, placing it at the 76th historical percentile [7] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th historical percentile include Real Estate, Retail, Chemicals, and IT Services [2][3] - Industries with PB valuations above the 85th historical percentile include Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communications [2][3] - Industries with both PE and PB valuations below the 15th historical percentile include Medical Services and White Goods [2][3] Sector Performance Tracking New Energy - The photovoltaic industry chain saw a price decline, with polysilicon futures down 6.2% and silicon wafer prices down 3.9% [3] - Battery material prices showed mixed trends, with cobalt down 3.2% and lithium hexafluorophosphate up 8.1% [3] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar fell by 1.7%, while iron ore prices decreased by 3.4% [3] - Cement prices increased slightly by 0.1%, but demand remains weak [3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs dropped by 4.6%, while wholesale pork prices rose by 2.4% [3] - The price index for liquor saw a slight decrease of 0.15% [3] Technology Sector - The semiconductor sales in China grew by 15.0% year-on-year in September 2025, indicating a positive trend in the sector [3] Commodity Sector - Brent crude oil prices fell by 2.1% to $63.7 per barrel, while coal prices increased due to stricter safety inspections and winter storage demand [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC market shows a volatile trend with near - term strength and long - term weakness [8]. - Due to the news of Sino - US tariff negotiations and the recovery of demand on the US route, airlines are trying to raise the freight rates on the European route in June. The 6 - month - end quotes from major companies indicate a willingness to increase prices [9]. - Some macro data this week show that the rush - shipping on the US route is less than expected. The change in the long - position logic of the main contract leads to a significant decline in the main - contract price, with the 6 - 8 spread and monthly spread narrowing. The price fluctuates under the influence of news about the US trade court's decision on Trump's trade policy [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) has a current value of 2073, up 30.68% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1118, up 0.92%. Rates on various routes such as SCFI - US West, SCFI - US East, and SCFI - Northwest Europe have also changed significantly [5]. - **EC Contracts**: For EC contracts like EC2506, EC2508, etc., their current values, previous values, and changes are presented. For example, EC2506 has a current value of 1834.8, up 1.48% [5]. - **Contract Positions**: Positions of different EC contracts (e.g., EC2506, EC2508) and their changes are provided. For instance, the EC2506 position is currently 11037, down 1679 from the previous value [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The current values, previous values, and changes of monthly spreads (e.g., 10 - 12, 12 - 2) are given. For example, the 10 - 12 monthly spread is currently 728.9, down 9.7 from the previous value [5]. 3.2 Trade Friction News - **Sino - US Trade**: China will reduce tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% for 90 days, and the US will cut tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 190 days. However, there are signs of a resurgence of Sino - US trade frictions, and the US plans more sanctions on Chinese technology [6]. - **US - EU Trade**: The EU is "strongly regretful" about the US raising steel tariffs to 50% and is preparing "counter - measures" [7]. - **US Court Decision**: The US International Trade Court has stopped most of the tariffs imposed since Trump's second term, except for those on specific industries like automobiles, steel, and aluminum [7]. 3.3 Market Conditions - **Spot Market**: Affected by Sino - US tariff negotiations and demand recovery on the US route, airlines are trying to raise European - route freight rates in June. Quotes for late June also show an upward trend [9]. - **Futures Market**: The main - contract price shows a volatile downward trend due to the change in the long - position logic and the influence of news about the US trade court's decision on Trump's trade policy [9].