中国出口集装箱运价指数

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航运衍生品数据日报-20250603
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 09:52
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC market shows a volatile trend with near - term strength and long - term weakness [8]. - Due to the news of Sino - US tariff negotiations and the recovery of demand on the US route, airlines are trying to raise the freight rates on the European route in June. The 6 - month - end quotes from major companies indicate a willingness to increase prices [9]. - Some macro data this week show that the rush - shipping on the US route is less than expected. The change in the long - position logic of the main contract leads to a significant decline in the main - contract price, with the 6 - 8 spread and monthly spread narrowing. The price fluctuates under the influence of news about the US trade court's decision on Trump's trade policy [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) has a current value of 2073, up 30.68% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1118, up 0.92%. Rates on various routes such as SCFI - US West, SCFI - US East, and SCFI - Northwest Europe have also changed significantly [5]. - **EC Contracts**: For EC contracts like EC2506, EC2508, etc., their current values, previous values, and changes are presented. For example, EC2506 has a current value of 1834.8, up 1.48% [5]. - **Contract Positions**: Positions of different EC contracts (e.g., EC2506, EC2508) and their changes are provided. For instance, the EC2506 position is currently 11037, down 1679 from the previous value [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The current values, previous values, and changes of monthly spreads (e.g., 10 - 12, 12 - 2) are given. For example, the 10 - 12 monthly spread is currently 728.9, down 9.7 from the previous value [5]. 3.2 Trade Friction News - **Sino - US Trade**: China will reduce tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% for 90 days, and the US will cut tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 190 days. However, there are signs of a resurgence of Sino - US trade frictions, and the US plans more sanctions on Chinese technology [6]. - **US - EU Trade**: The EU is "strongly regretful" about the US raising steel tariffs to 50% and is preparing "counter - measures" [7]. - **US Court Decision**: The US International Trade Court has stopped most of the tariffs imposed since Trump's second term, except for those on specific industries like automobiles, steel, and aluminum [7]. 3.3 Market Conditions - **Spot Market**: Affected by Sino - US tariff negotiations and demand recovery on the US route, airlines are trying to raise European - route freight rates in June. Quotes for late June also show an upward trend [9]. - **Futures Market**: The main - contract price shows a volatile downward trend due to the change in the long - position logic and the influence of news about the US trade court's decision on Trump's trade policy [9].