Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The EC spot - futures market is in a game situation intertwined with policies and geopolitical factors, showing a differentiation feature of short - term sentiment - driven and long - term fundamental support. The market has not formed a clear trend yet. Short - term trends are dominated by policy news and sentiment, while long - term trends depend on the global foreign trade recovery rhythm, capacity adjustment, and substantial improvement in terminal demand [8] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - The current values of Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, SCFI - Northwest Europe, SCFIS - Northwest Europe, and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1458, 1209, 2084, 1294, 2896, 1595, 1859, and 2756 respectively. The previous values are 1574, 1210, 2194, 1305, 3163, 1676, 1954, and 2983 respectively. The corresponding percentage changes are - 7.39%, - 0.09%, - 5.01%, - 0.84%, - 8.44%, - 4.83%, - 4.86%, and - 7.61% respectively [5] 3.2 Shipping Schedule - For CMA CGM's shipping schedules, on the European line FAL1, the last east - bound return ship passing through the Suez Canal is CMA CGM BENJAMIN FRANKLIN (expected to pass on February 1st with OMIT detour), and the first ship to resume east - bound return through the Suez Canal on April 6th is CMA CGM VASCO DE GAMA, corresponding to the Ocean Alliance's new annual Day10 route plan starting from April. On the European line FAL3, the last east - bound return ship is CMA CGM SEINE (expected to pass on January 25th) with no resumption plan. On the Mediterranean line MEX, the last east - bound return ship is CMA CGM GRACE BAY (expected to pass on January 22nd) with no resumption plan [5][6] 3.3 Market News - The additional tariffs on eight European countries are temporarily not imposed. US President Trump is preparing to hold a "Peace Committee Charter Signing Ceremony" during the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, marking the mechanism's transition from concept to public launch [6] 3.4 Spot Price - The current 40 - foot container freight rates on the European line are as follows: GEMINI Alliance's Maersk quotes $2430 in Week 5, Hapag - Lloyd quotes $2300 - $2500; OA Alliance quotes about $2500 - $2650, CMA CGM quotes $2793, and others are around $2600; PA Alliance quotes about $2400, Yang Ming quotes as low as $2200 - $2435; MSC quotes $2640. In the next one or two weeks (end of January - early February), Maersk's Week 6 opening price drops to $2000 - $2100, Hapag - Lloyd maintains $2300 - $2500, OA Alliance may slightly drop to around $2500, PA Alliance may fluctuate in the range of $2200 - $2400, and MSC may slightly adjust downward with the market, showing a pre - holiday decline due to the pre - Spring Festival cargo volume vacuum period [7] 3.5 Market Analysis - The futures market is initially pushed up by short - term sentiment but then corrects due to weakened spot support and calmed sentiment. The far - month contracts are more resilient. The spot market is in a balance between shipping companies' price adjustments and supply - demand games. Some shipping companies lower short - term prices to compete for cargo volume. The market is affected by three variables: short - term rush - shipping expectations from photovoltaic export tax - rebate policy adjustments, Red Sea resumption expectations from geopolitical easing, and the differentiated economic recovery in the Eurozone [8] 3.6 Strategy - The cost - effectiveness of short - term shorting is reduced. Pay attention to shorting on rallies during the off - season [9]

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Shipping Derivatives Data Daily [2] - Research institute: Guomao Futures Research Institute, Energy and Chemical Research Center [3] - Author: Lu Dingyi [3] - Date: January 8, 2026 [3] - Data sources: Clarksons, Wind [3] Group 2: Freight Index Data - **Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) and related sub - indices**: - The current value of the comprehensive index SCET is 1656, with a previous value of 1553 and a growth rate of 6.66% [4]. - The current value of the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1147, with a previous value of 1125 and a growth rate of 1.95% [4]. - SCFI - US West has a current value of 2188, a previous value of 1992, and a growth rate of 9.84% [4]. - SCFIS - US West has a current value of 1250, a previous value of 1301, and a decline rate of - 3.92% [4]. - SCFI - US East has a current value of 3033, a previous value of 2846, and a growth rate of 6.57% [4]. - SCFI - Northwest Europe has a current value of 1690, a previous value of 1533, and a growth rate of 10.24% [4]. - **One - day data of other indices**: - SCFIS - Northwest Europe has a current value of 1795, a previous value of 1742, and a growth rate of 3.04% [4]. - SCFI - Mediterranean has a current value of 3143, a previous value of 2833, and a growth rate of 10.94% [4]. Group 3: Spot Price and Market Analysis - **Market overview**: The market is in a downward trend. The current European line freight rates are in a high - level shock. The quotes of each alliance in the middle and late ten - day period are generally higher than those in the early ten - day period. The OA alliance has the highest overall freight rate level, and the individual quote increase of MSC is significant [5]. - **Freight rates of different alliances**: - GEMINI Alliance: In wk1 (12/29 - 1/4), 20GP is 1585, 40GP is 2550; in wk2 (1/5 - 1/12), the prices are the same as wk1; in wk3 (1/13 - 1/20), 20GP is 1635, 40GP is 2650, with an increase of 50 and 100 respectively compared to wk1 [5]. - OA Alliance: In wk1 (12/20 - 1/4), 20GP is 1535, 40GP is 2631; in wk2 (1/5 - 1/12), 20GP is 1824, 40GP is 3068, with a significant increase compared to wk1; in wk3 (1/13 - 1/20), the prices are the same as wk2 [5]. - PA Alliance: In wk1 (12/29 - 1/4), 20GP is 1603, 40GP is 2806; in wk2 (1/5 - 1/12), 20GP is 1645, 40GP is 2600; in wk3 (1/13 - 1/20), the prices are the same as wk2 [5]. - MSC: In wk1 (12/29 - 1/4), 20GP is 1700, 40GP is 2840; in wk2 (1/5 - 1/12), the prices are the same as wk1; in wk3 (1/13 - 1/20), 20GP is 1880, 40GP is 3140, with an increase of 180 and 300 respectively compared to wk1 [6]. - **Market logic**: The SCFIS index is reported at 1795 points, showing a relatively strong shock pattern. Its trend is mainly restricted by the expected actual freight rates of liner companies in late January. The current main contract fluctuates violently and lacks a one - way trend, with high operation difficulty. The price fluctuates around the key central level of 1800 points. The upward and downward movements are affected by the alternation of the actual index and market sentiment. The market may still be in a relatively strong shock state [6].

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of A-shares as of December 19, 2025, shows the CSI All Share Index (excluding ST stocks) with a PE of 21.1 times and a PB of 1.8 times, positioned at the 77th and 39th historical percentiles respectively [2][5] - The Shanghai Composite Index has a PE of 11.7 times and a PB of 1.3 times, at the 61st and 40th historical percentiles [2][5] - The CSI 300 Index has a PE of 14 times and a PB of 1.5 times, at the 62nd and 34th historical percentiles [2][5] - The ChiNext Index has a PE of 39.9 times and a PB of 5.4 times, at the 32nd and 61st historical percentiles [2][5] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th historical percentile include Real Estate, Retail, and IT Services (Software Development) [2] - Industries with PB valuations above the 85th historical percentile include Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communications [2] - The Medical Services industry has both PE and PB valuations below the 15th historical percentile [2] Industry Economic Tracking New Energy - The photovoltaic industry chain prices remained stable, with battery cell spot prices rebounding by 8.1% [2] - The price of polysilicon futures increased by 6.4%, while the price of lithium carbonate rose by 7.4% [2] - Concerns about tightening lithium supply emerged due to local mining permit cancellations [2] Real Estate Chain - The average sales area of commercial housing in China from January to November 2025 decreased by 7.8% year-on-year, with a notable decline in real estate investment by 15.9% [3] - The price of rebar increased by 1.2%, while iron ore prices rose by 1.6% [3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs increased by 0.9%, while the wholesale price of pork rose by 0.2% [3] - Retail sales from January to November 2025 grew by 4.0% year-on-year, showing a slight decline in growth rate compared to the previous ten months [3] Midstream Manufacturing - Manufacturing investment from January to November 2025 increased by 1.9% year-on-year, while infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 1.1% [3] - Heavy truck sales in November 2025 surged by 65.4% year-on-year, with new energy heavy trucks seeing a significant increase in sales [3] Technology TMT - The production of integrated circuits and optoelectronic devices in China increased by 10.6% and 9.7% year-on-year respectively [3] Commodities - The price of Brent crude oil futures fell by 1.1% to $60.55 per barrel, amid rising supply pressures [3] - The price of thermal coal decreased by 5.6%, while coking coal prices rose by 0.5% [3]

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of the A-share market as of November 7, 2025, shows the CSI All Share Index (excluding ST stocks) with a PE of 21.5x and a PB of 1.8x, positioned at the 80th and 41st historical percentiles respectively [2][3] - The Shanghai 50 Index has a PE of 11.9x and a PB of 1.3x, at the 64th and 39th historical percentiles [2][3] - The ChiNext Index has a PE of 41.3x and a PB of 5.2x, at the 58th and 60th historical percentiles [2][3] - The valuation of the semiconductor industry is notably high, with a PE of 99.7x, placing it at the 76th historical percentile [7] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th historical percentile include Real Estate, Retail, Chemicals, and IT Services [2][3] - Industries with PB valuations above the 85th historical percentile include Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communications [2][3] - Industries with both PE and PB valuations below the 15th historical percentile include Medical Services and White Goods [2][3] Sector Performance Tracking New Energy - The photovoltaic industry chain saw a price decline, with polysilicon futures down 6.2% and silicon wafer prices down 3.9% [3] - Battery material prices showed mixed trends, with cobalt down 3.2% and lithium hexafluorophosphate up 8.1% [3] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar fell by 1.7%, while iron ore prices decreased by 3.4% [3] - Cement prices increased slightly by 0.1%, but demand remains weak [3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs dropped by 4.6%, while wholesale pork prices rose by 2.4% [3] - The price index for liquor saw a slight decrease of 0.15% [3] Technology Sector - The semiconductor sales in China grew by 15.0% year-on-year in September 2025, indicating a positive trend in the sector [3] Commodity Sector - Brent crude oil prices fell by 2.1% to $63.7 per barrel, while coal prices increased due to stricter safety inspections and winter storage demand [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC market shows a volatile trend with near - term strength and long - term weakness [8]. - Due to the news of Sino - US tariff negotiations and the recovery of demand on the US route, airlines are trying to raise the freight rates on the European route in June. The 6 - month - end quotes from major companies indicate a willingness to increase prices [9]. - Some macro data this week show that the rush - shipping on the US route is less than expected. The change in the long - position logic of the main contract leads to a significant decline in the main - contract price, with the 6 - 8 spread and monthly spread narrowing. The price fluctuates under the influence of news about the US trade court's decision on Trump's trade policy [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) has a current value of 2073, up 30.68% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1118, up 0.92%. Rates on various routes such as SCFI - US West, SCFI - US East, and SCFI - Northwest Europe have also changed significantly [5]. - **EC Contracts**: For EC contracts like EC2506, EC2508, etc., their current values, previous values, and changes are presented. For example, EC2506 has a current value of 1834.8, up 1.48% [5]. - **Contract Positions**: Positions of different EC contracts (e.g., EC2506, EC2508) and their changes are provided. For instance, the EC2506 position is currently 11037, down 1679 from the previous value [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The current values, previous values, and changes of monthly spreads (e.g., 10 - 12, 12 - 2) are given. For example, the 10 - 12 monthly spread is currently 728.9, down 9.7 from the previous value [5]. 3.2 Trade Friction News - **Sino - US Trade**: China will reduce tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% for 90 days, and the US will cut tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 190 days. However, there are signs of a resurgence of Sino - US trade frictions, and the US plans more sanctions on Chinese technology [6]. - **US - EU Trade**: The EU is "strongly regretful" about the US raising steel tariffs to 50% and is preparing "counter - measures" [7]. - **US Court Decision**: The US International Trade Court has stopped most of the tariffs imposed since Trump's second term, except for those on specific industries like automobiles, steel, and aluminum [7]. 3.3 Market Conditions - **Spot Market**: Affected by Sino - US tariff negotiations and demand recovery on the US route, airlines are trying to raise European - route freight rates in June. Quotes for late June also show an upward trend [9]. - **Futures Market**: The main - contract price shows a volatile downward trend due to the change in the long - position logic and the influence of news about the US trade court's decision on Trump's trade policy [9].