Core Insights - Chinese automotive companies are making significant strides in the Indonesian market, showcasing their electric and hybrid vehicles at the 2025 Indonesia International Auto Show, highlighting their technological advancements and competitive pricing [1][2] - The demand for Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) in Indonesia is surging, with a reported 267% year-on-year increase in pure electric vehicle sales in the first half of the year, where Chinese brands accounted for over 90% of the sales [2] - Collaboration between China and Indonesia is enhancing the local electric vehicle industry, with Chinese companies localizing production and establishing partnerships for battery material supply and talent development [2][3] Industry Developments - The Indonesian automotive market is increasingly focusing on green energy, with a growing presence of electric bicycles and motorcycles at the auto show, reflecting the country's commitment to a sustainable energy system [1] - The use of retired electric vehicle batteries for energy storage systems is being explored, promoting a circular economy in the automotive and energy sectors [2] - The Indonesian Automotive Industry Association emphasizes the importance of partnerships with China for the development of the local electric vehicle industry, encouraging local companies to learn from Chinese expertise [3]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights the significance of the BRICS cooperation mechanism in enhancing the voice of Global South countries in international affairs and promoting a fairer international order [1][9] - BRICS has evolved from a dialogue platform to a comprehensive strategic cooperation mechanism covering various fields, becoming a vital platform for cooperation among Global South countries [2][6] Group 2: Key Themes of BRICS Cooperation - "Peaceful BRICS" aims to establish a common security framework, positioning BRICS countries as stabilizing forces in a turbulent international environment [2] - "Innovative BRICS" focuses on technology-driven industrial upgrades, enhancing economic resilience and competitiveness through collaboration in sectors like 5G, AI, and renewable energy [3] - "Green BRICS" explores sustainable development paths, with China leading renewable energy projects in various BRICS nations, contributing to high-quality economic growth [3] - "Just BRICS" emphasizes the need for reform in global governance, enhancing the international representation and voice of developing countries [4] - "Cultural BRICS" promotes cultural exchanges and mutual understanding, with initiatives like the BRICS University Alliance fostering academic collaboration [5] Group 3: Expansion and Opportunities - The recent expansion of BRICS has increased its global population coverage to over 50% and its contribution to global economic growth to over 50%, creating new opportunities for high-quality development [6][9] - The digital transformation presents strategic opportunities for BRICS, leveraging technological advantages to build a self-sustaining digital economy [7] - Energy cooperation among BRICS countries aims to diversify supply sources, enhancing resource complementarity and collaboration in traditional and renewable energy sectors [8] - The expanded BRICS network enhances regional connectivity, optimizing global logistics and trade efficiency [8] Group 4: "BRICS+" Cooperation Model - The "BRICS+" model attracts more Global South countries, enhancing cooperation networks and promoting a fairer international order [9][10] - The model focuses on development, integrating economic resources and market potential to address global economic governance challenges [10] - "BRICS+" fosters cultural cooperation and dialogue, promoting a diverse and harmonious global civilization [10]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent aggressive actions taken by the U.S. government against China, highlighting a series of statements and actions from President Trump that indicate a shift in strategy towards China amidst ongoing trade tensions [1][3][4] - Trump's comments about the historical significance of U.S.-China relations reflect a frustration with China's competitive advantage, suggesting that American companies are struggling to compete with Chinese manufacturing [4][14] - The U.S. Republican lawmakers' push to delist 25 Chinese companies, including Alibaba, from U.S. exchanges under the pretext of national security concerns is seen as a tactic to capitalize on falling stock prices of Chinese firms [6][16] Group 2 - The proposed 100% tariffs on imported films by the U.S. government is viewed as a misguided attempt to protect the American film industry, which is perceived to be losing ground to Chinese films [8][11] - The article argues that the U.S. is failing to recognize the changing dynamics of global trade and competition, as evidenced by the success of Chinese films and products in international markets [9][19] - The ongoing trade war is characterized as a detrimental strategy for the U.S., with American consumers bearing the brunt of increased prices due to tariffs, while Chinese companies adapt and thrive [14][17]

对等关税的本质是多人重复博弈，评估关税前景的核心不是计算税率。 对于美国而言，与中国这样的大国谈判并没有太多实际好处，更多是寻求面子上的让步，以便在政治上 有所交代。 向大国要"面子"，向小国要"里子"，索取经济利益。 这也是整个关税问题的核心目的， 并非像纳瓦罗、莱特希泽等理想主义者所期望的那样，通过一堵高高的关税墙来推动美国制造业回流和 自主产业化，而是通过获取经济利益解决美国内部的财政问题，让美国政府债务可持续。 一、"以牙还牙"的艺术 美国挑起关税战之后，中国"以牙还牙"的博弈策略，不仅给美国经济带来了额外的衰退担忧，也在破 解美国的谈判筹码。 今年4月，多家华尔街投行下调了美国经济增长预测，上调了美国经济衰退和美股下跌概率，因为美国 的破坏性政策将引发报复性关税，从而对商业情绪和供应链构成重大打击。 另一方面，"以牙还牙"策略为其他国家赢得了90天的缓和期，实则为中国企业争取到90天的转口贸易 时间窗口。在"压力测试期"内，制造业企业可制定贸易摩擦背景下的应对策略，并与供应商及客户们 进一步探索拓展出口转口的可能性。于中国而言，拉长博弈的战线意味着更低的博弈成本和代价。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人陈 ...