以下文章来源于懒人养基 ，作者懒人养基 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：懒人养基 懒人养基 . 雪球21年度十大新锐用户、22年度基金影响力用户，私企业主，经济学硕士，《基金投资全攻略》作者。早期靠创 业获取主动收入，从17年开始，逐步将经营产生的余钱、闲钱，几乎全部逢低买入权益基金，从赚取主动收入慢慢 向赚取被动收入过渡。价值投资践行者 （ 数据来源 ： Choice ） 这一表现背后 ， 是多重利好因素的共振 。 从外部环境看 ， 美联储降息预期升温 ， 全球流动性预期宽松 ， 利好港股整体流动性 。 而从内部因素分析 ， AI 浪潮持续席卷科技领域 ， 国内科技企业在大模型 、 云 计算等前沿技术上不断突破 ， 核心科技企业因此成为受益者 ， 这些成分股的出色表现有力地推动了三大指 数的攀升 。 投资者非常关心 ， 这三大指数有何异同 ？ 谁的投资价值更高 ？ 今天就来聊聊这个话题 。 01 来源：雪球 9月17日 ， 恒生科技指数 、 港股通科技和中概互联分别大涨4.22% 、 3.27%和3.40% ， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recovery and growth of the Chinese internet sector, highlighting a 47% increase in the China Internet ETF since early 2025, emphasizing the importance of patience and strategic investment during challenging times [4][5][6]. Group 1: Historical Context and Recovery - The Chinese internet sector faced significant challenges over the past three years, including regulatory pressures and market sentiment issues, leading to a decline that tested investors' beliefs and strategies [4][5]. - The author previously addressed concerns about the potential collapse of the Chinese internet industry, asserting that while some companies may falter, the overall sector is unlikely to disappear due to its deep integration into daily life [7]. - The recovery of the sector is likened to a "smile curve," illustrating the importance of time and common sense in investment [6]. Group 2: Interest Rate Cycle and Valuation - The article explains that interest rates significantly influence the valuation of technology sectors, with rising rates increasing costs and pressuring growth assets, while falling rates create a more favorable environment for valuations [10][11]. - Recent actions by the Federal Reserve, including a rate cut from 4.25-4.5% to 4-4.25%, signal a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy, which could benefit growth sectors like the internet [12][13]. - The historical context of post-pandemic monetary easing is referenced, noting that it previously led to a rapid recovery in technology and internet asset valuations [14]. Group 3: Safety Margin and Current Valuation Strategies - The article recommends using the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio for evaluating the Chinese internet sector, as traditional Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratios may not accurately reflect the volatility of early-stage companies [16]. - Current PS and PE ratios indicate that the sector is undervalued, with a PS of 3.04 and a PE of 21.65, suggesting a favorable safety margin compared to historical averages [19][20][26]. - A comparative analysis shows that the Chinese internet sector has a lower valuation relative to other technology indices, indicating a potential investment opportunity [27]. Group 4: Investment Strategy and Recommendations - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a diversified portfolio and managing positions carefully, especially during market fluctuations [8][9]. - Investors are advised to remain patient and not be swayed by short-term market movements, with a focus on long-term strategies and safety margins [28][29]. - For those unfamiliar with the sector, caution is advised, and starting with broader indices may be a prudent approach [30].

Group 1: Market Overview - The global investment strategy includes buying equities across various markets such as A-shares, US stocks, European stocks, and emerging markets, focusing on sectors like technology, healthcare, and Chinese internet companies, while also investing in commodities for balanced asset allocation [1] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on September 16-17 is anticipated to be a significant macro event, with a nearly full market expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut, and a 10% probability of a 50 basis point cut following a downward revision of non-farm data [1][2] - Historical data indicates that the stock market typically performs poorly in the month following a Federal Reserve rate cut, with the S&P 500 showing an average return of -5% in the first month after a cut [4][5] Group 2: Seasonal Trends and Investor Behavior - September is traditionally a weak month for US stocks, with pension funds and mutual funds rebalancing portfolios, leading to potential selling pressure [3] - Retail investor participation tends to decline in September, and companies often reduce stock buybacks during the quiet period before third-quarter earnings announcements [3] Group 3: Earnings and Economic Outlook - Despite concerns about economic slowdown, major companies have shown strong earnings growth, particularly in the technology sector, which has driven profits year-to-date [8] - The combination of upcoming Federal Reserve easing and fiscal stimulus from policies like Trump's "Big Beautiful Plan" suggests potential for stock market gains, even amidst volatility [11] Group 4: A-Share Market Insights - The recent adjustment in the A-share market is viewed as healthy, with volume contraction being a normal phenomenon during bull market corrections [12][15] - The Chinese stock market is currently in a "recovery" phase, with improving earnings momentum, which is a relative advantage compared to other economies in the region [17] Group 5: Commodity Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes the importance of including commodities in investment portfolios as a hedge against future risks, particularly in a world moving towards multipolarity [19][20] - Goldman Sachs highlights a "commodity control cycle" where government interventions lead to a concentration of supply among a few dominant players, raising concerns about future supply security [20]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of various investment strategies over the past four years, highlighting the effectiveness of certain strategies in navigating a challenging market environment, particularly in the context of a significant bear market in Chinese assets. Group 1: Investment Performance - The CSI 500 index has dropped from 6628 points to 5639 points over four years, resulting in a decline of 1000 points, but an 800-point gain from the discount strategy has helped offset this loss, leading to an overall return of 18% based on a nominal principal of 1 million [1][3]. - In the period from 2022 to 2025, the real estate market has been in decline without signs of recovery, marking a unique bear market that surpasses previous stock market downturns [3]. Group 2: Strategy Evaluation - The article rates various investment strategies, assigning a score of 70 to the IM discount strategy, 65 to the IC discount strategy, and a failing score of 50 to broad indices like the CSI 300 and CSI 500, while the low-volatility dividend and dual-low convertible bonds receive a score of 80 [2]. - The performance of different asset classes in 2021 is highlighted, showing significant losses: real estate down 40% (60% including interest), CSI 300 down 23%, Chinese concept stocks down 37%, and CSI white liquor down 48% [4].