Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts the world is entering a "Commodity Control Cycle" due to stagnation in globalization and inward-looking policies by various countries [1][2] Group 1: Traditional Investment Portfolio Vulnerabilities - Traditional stock and bond portfolios are particularly vulnerable in two stagflation scenarios, diminishing their diversification benefits [3] - The first scenario is "Institutional Credibility Erosion Stagflation," where doubts about central banks' ability to control inflation lead to declines in both stocks and bonds, making gold a standout asset [4] - The second scenario is "Supply Shock Stagflation," where external supply disruptions cause economic slowdowns and rising prices, making commodities the few assets that can provide positive real returns [5][6] Group 2: The Four-Step Cycle of Commodity Control - The cycle begins with "Insulation," where governments use tariffs, subsidies, and strategic reserves to secure domestic supply chains [8] - The second step is "Expansion," where once domestic supply is secured, excess production is exported, with OPEC+ and U.S. LNG exports gaining market influence [8][9] - The third step is "Concentration," where global price declines lead to high-cost producers exiting the market, concentrating supply among a few low-cost giants [9] - The final step is "Leverage," where dominant producers use export restrictions as geopolitical and economic leverage, increasing market disruption risks [10] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks and Supply Concentration - The concentration of commodity supply heightens geopolitical risks, as evidenced by historical cases like the 1973 oil embargo and Russia's gas supply cuts to Europe [11][14] - Key maritime chokepoints further exacerbate supply chain vulnerabilities, with diminishing naval protection increasing geopolitical risks for commodity flows [14] Group 4: Strategic Value of Commodities for Investors - The report emphasizes the strategic value of commodities in investment portfolios amid a fragmented and vulnerable supply chain world [15] - Not all commodities provide the same hedging effectiveness, which depends on their direct or indirect weight in the inflation basket and the likelihood of supply disruptions [15][16] - As the world officially enters the "Commodity Control Cycle," incorporating a broad range of commodities into investment portfolios is a long-term strategic decision to mitigate future inflation and geopolitical risks [17]

华见早安之声 请各位听众升级为见闻最新版APP，以便成功收听以下音频。 市场概述 重磅非农就业报告前夕，美国ADP就业增长大幅放缓和首申失业金人数高于预期，共同指向劳动力市场降温，继续强化市场的降息预期。标普500指数创新 高，小盘股指数涨1.26%、优于大盘。 亚马逊上涨逾4.2%，创5月份以来最佳单日表现。Salesforce跌4.88%，隔夜公布了悲观的第三财季营收指引。博通绩后涨约3.7%。露露柠檬下调全年收入指 引，股价盘后跌15%。中概跌超1%，阿里跌超4%。 降息预期下，美债收益率全线下挫，10年期跌5.6基点。以太币跌约4%，表现落后于比特币。黄金终结七连涨，一度较日高下挫超1.4%。 OPEC+增产传闻仍在发酵，WTI原油跌破64美元。 亚洲时段，AH股继续调整，创业板跌超4%，寒武纪跌近15%，银行股逆势拉升、农行大涨5%总市值首超工行，国债反弹。 《付鹏说·第六季》全面升级！付鹏带你前瞻全球大类资产交易性机会！立即订阅>> 要闻 美国ISM服务业PMI扩张速度创半年最快，就业疲软，价格仍高企。美国8月ADP就业增长大幅放缓至5.4万人。美国上周首申失业金人数23.7 万，升至6月以来最高 ...

高盛的最新研究判断，随着全球化进程停滞和各国转向内向型政策，世界正在进入一个"大宗商品控制 周期"。 据追风交易台消息，高盛分析师Lina Thomas和Daan Struyven等人在9月3日的报告中认为，在当前全球 化停滞、地缘政治紧张的背景下，传统的股债组合在应对两种滞胀风险（制度信誉侵蚀和供应冲击）时 显得尤为脆弱。 这时，一个"大宗商品控制周期"正在形成。高盛认为，该周期四步模式驱动：政府首先通过关税、补贴 和战略储备来"绝缘"和保护国内供应链；随后在保障自给后"扩大"出口；继而导致全球价格下跌，高成 本生产商退出，使供应"集中"到少数主导者手中；最终，这些主导者利用其市场地位施加"杠杆"，引发 新一轮的供应安全担忧。 报告强调，各国出于安全考虑纷纷保障本土供应链，导致主要大宗商品的生产和加工日益集中于少数国 家之手，并被频繁用作地缘政治工具。这不仅加剧了价格波动和通胀风险，也凸显了持有大宗商品作为 投资组合多元化工具的必要性。因此，无论是对能源、关键矿产还是黄金的分析，或都指向一个结论： 大宗商品正在成为对冲未来风险不可或缺的核心资产。 从绝缘到杠杆的四步循环 高盛认为，2008年之前，供应链的延 ...