Group 1: Market Overview - The global investment strategy includes buying equities across various markets such as A-shares, US stocks, European stocks, and emerging markets, focusing on sectors like technology, healthcare, and Chinese internet companies, while also investing in commodities for balanced asset allocation [1] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on September 16-17 is anticipated to be a significant macro event, with a nearly full market expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut, and a 10% probability of a 50 basis point cut following a downward revision of non-farm data [1][2] - Historical data indicates that the stock market typically performs poorly in the month following a Federal Reserve rate cut, with the S&P 500 showing an average return of -5% in the first month after a cut [4][5] Group 2: Seasonal Trends and Investor Behavior - September is traditionally a weak month for US stocks, with pension funds and mutual funds rebalancing portfolios, leading to potential selling pressure [3] - Retail investor participation tends to decline in September, and companies often reduce stock buybacks during the quiet period before third-quarter earnings announcements [3] Group 3: Earnings and Economic Outlook - Despite concerns about economic slowdown, major companies have shown strong earnings growth, particularly in the technology sector, which has driven profits year-to-date [8] - The combination of upcoming Federal Reserve easing and fiscal stimulus from policies like Trump's "Big Beautiful Plan" suggests potential for stock market gains, even amidst volatility [11] Group 4: A-Share Market Insights - The recent adjustment in the A-share market is viewed as healthy, with volume contraction being a normal phenomenon during bull market corrections [12][15] - The Chinese stock market is currently in a "recovery" phase, with improving earnings momentum, which is a relative advantage compared to other economies in the region [17] Group 5: Commodity Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes the importance of including commodities in investment portfolios as a hedge against future risks, particularly in a world moving towards multipolarity [19][20] - Goldman Sachs highlights a "commodity control cycle" where government interventions lead to a concentration of supply among a few dominant players, raising concerns about future supply security [20]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant transformation of Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. from a near-bankrupt state to a global mining giant, highlighting its strategic acquisitions and partnerships, particularly in copper and cobalt sectors, and the implications for its future growth and valuation [9][19][42]. Group 1: Company Development - Luoyang Molybdenum has evolved from a struggling state-owned enterprise to a major player in the global mining industry within 22 years [9]. - The company underwent two critical rounds of mixed ownership reform, which were pivotal in its turnaround, particularly the partnership with Hongshang Group in 2004 [15][16]. - The introduction of advanced mining techniques and a focus on core operations led to a significant increase in profitability, with net profits soaring from 280 million yuan in 2005 to 1.714 billion yuan in 2006 [16]. Group 2: Financial Performance - The company's total assets grew from 30.881 billion yuan to 178.628 billion yuan over the past decade, a 5.78-fold increase, while maintaining a manageable debt ratio between 42.3% and 64.89% [26]. - Revenue surged from 4.197 billion yuan in 2015 to over 200 billion yuan in 2024, with net profit increasing from 761 million yuan to 13.532 billion yuan, marking a 16.8-fold growth over ten years [27]. - The stock price increased from 2.63 yuan to 12.54 yuan, representing a 377% rise [30]. Group 3: Resource and Market Position - Luoyang Molybdenum is positioned as a leading player in copper and cobalt, with its copper resources ranked 13th globally and cobalt resources ranked 1st, controlling nearly half of the world's cobalt supply [19]. - The company has established a strategic partnership with CATL, becoming a key supplier of cobalt and copper, with annual supply commitments of 12,000 tons of cobalt and 100,000 tons of copper [16][17]. - The mining operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo are expected to significantly contribute to the company's profits, with TFM reaching full production in Q2 2023 and KFM expected to do so by March 2024 [26]. Group 4: Valuation and Market Outlook - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 16 times, which is not the lowest in the past decade but still reasonable compared to peers like Zijin Mining [33][34]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is at 3.72, close to historical highs, indicating potential overvaluation in the short term [36]. - The demand for copper is projected to increase significantly due to emerging technologies, with a forecasted supply gap of 6 million tons by 2035, suggesting a favorable long-term outlook for copper prices [38].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts the world is entering a "Commodity Control Cycle" due to stagnation in globalization and inward-looking policies by various countries [1][2] Group 1: Traditional Investment Portfolio Vulnerabilities - Traditional stock and bond portfolios are particularly vulnerable in two stagflation scenarios, diminishing their diversification benefits [3] - The first scenario is "Institutional Credibility Erosion Stagflation," where doubts about central banks' ability to control inflation lead to declines in both stocks and bonds, making gold a standout asset [4] - The second scenario is "Supply Shock Stagflation," where external supply disruptions cause economic slowdowns and rising prices, making commodities the few assets that can provide positive real returns [5][6] Group 2: The Four-Step Cycle of Commodity Control - The cycle begins with "Insulation," where governments use tariffs, subsidies, and strategic reserves to secure domestic supply chains [8] - The second step is "Expansion," where once domestic supply is secured, excess production is exported, with OPEC+ and U.S. LNG exports gaining market influence [8][9] - The third step is "Concentration," where global price declines lead to high-cost producers exiting the market, concentrating supply among a few low-cost giants [9] - The final step is "Leverage," where dominant producers use export restrictions as geopolitical and economic leverage, increasing market disruption risks [10] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks and Supply Concentration - The concentration of commodity supply heightens geopolitical risks, as evidenced by historical cases like the 1973 oil embargo and Russia's gas supply cuts to Europe [11][14] - Key maritime chokepoints further exacerbate supply chain vulnerabilities, with diminishing naval protection increasing geopolitical risks for commodity flows [14] Group 4: Strategic Value of Commodities for Investors - The report emphasizes the strategic value of commodities in investment portfolios amid a fragmented and vulnerable supply chain world [15] - Not all commodities provide the same hedging effectiveness, which depends on their direct or indirect weight in the inflation basket and the likelihood of supply disruptions [15][16] - As the world officially enters the "Commodity Control Cycle," incorporating a broad range of commodities into investment portfolios is a long-term strategic decision to mitigate future inflation and geopolitical risks [17]

Market Overview - The US ADP employment growth significantly slowed to 54,000 in August, below the expected 68,000, indicating a cooling labor market and reinforcing rate cut expectations [4][10] - Initial jobless claims rose to 237,000, the highest level since June, exceeding the expected 230,000 [10][11] - The S&P 500 index reached a new high, while small-cap stocks outperformed the broader market with a 1.26% increase [2] - Amazon's stock rose over 4.2%, marking its best single-day performance since May, while Salesforce fell 4.88% after issuing a pessimistic revenue forecast [2] Company News - Broadcom reported a 63% year-over-year increase in AI chip revenue, with a mysterious new customer placing a $10 billion order, leading to expectations of a significant improvement in AI prospects for the next fiscal year [5][16] - Huawei launched its new foldable smartphone Mate XTs, priced from 17,999 yuan, featuring the Kirin 9020 chip, marking its return after four years [5][16][23] - Tesla's new "Optimus 3" prototype, resembling a human hand, has generated significant interest, with expectations that it could replace many high-salary jobs in the future [6][16] Industry Insights - The US services sector's ISM PMI expanded at its fastest pace in six months, with a reading of 52 in August, driven by strong order growth [10] - The US trade deficit widened to its largest level in four months, reaching $78.3 billion in July, primarily due to a surge in imports [11] - The North American market is seeing a tightening of regulations for cryptocurrency stocks, with Nasdaq implementing stricter rules to prevent market manipulation [14] - The Chinese humanoid robot market is projected to reach nearly 38 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 61% from 2024 to 2030 [25][27]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs predicts the world is entering a "Commodity Control Cycle" due to stagnation in globalization and inward-looking policies by nations [1][7] - The traditional stock-bond portfolio is deemed vulnerable in the face of two types of stagflation risks: erosion of institutional credibility and supply shocks [2][6] Commodity Control Cycle - The cycle consists of four phases: insulation, expansion, concentration, and leverage [3][4] - **Insulation**: Governments implement tariffs, subsidies, and strategic reserves to protect domestic supply chains [3] - **Expansion**: Once domestic supply is secured, surplus production is used for exports, with OPEC+ and U.S. LNG exports gaining market share [3] - **Concentration**: High-cost producers exit the market, leading to supply concentration among a few dominant players [3] - **Leverage**: Dominant producers can use export restrictions as geopolitical and economic leverage, increasing market disruption risks [3][5] Geopolitical Risks - The concentration of commodity supply heightens geopolitical risks, as seen in historical cases like the 1973 oil embargo and Russia's gas supply cuts to Europe [5] - Key maritime chokepoints exacerbate supply chain vulnerabilities, with diminishing naval protection increasing geopolitical risks for commodity flows [5] Strategic Value of Commodities - The report emphasizes the strategic value of commodities in investment portfolios, particularly in a fragmented and supply-chain-weakening world [6][7] - Not all commodities provide the same hedging effectiveness, which depends on their weight in the inflation basket and the likelihood of supply disruptions [6][9] Conclusion - As the world transitions into a "Commodity Control Cycle," incorporating a diverse range of commodities into investment portfolios is a strategic decision to mitigate future inflation and geopolitical risks [7]