投资漆雪球之 自由现金流策略 随着自由现金流量逐渐成为评估企业内在价值的指标,聚焦企 业现金与现金制造能力的自由现金流策略,也开始成为经典的 价值投资策略。 近年来,包括中证会指自印现金硫指数在内的自由现金流主题 指数陆续发布,随后相关ETF也先后成立,策略指数投资的版 图也触及这一经典价值投资策略。我们不妨也好好了解一下, 巴菲特重视的自由现金流策略究竟有何魅力? 中证全指自由现金流指数于2024年12月11日发布，中证指数公司 认识自由现金流的本质 要想全面了解自由现金流策略的特点与优势,首先要回归到自 由现金流的概念本身。 自由现金流（FreeCashFlow）是指企业在扣除所有现金支出. 包括运营成本、资本支出等之后,剩余的可用于偿还债务、支 付股息、进行再投资等的现金流量、是反映了企业真实盈利能 力的重要指标。 税 日 + 息税前利润 折旧与摊销 FUL 资本支出 运营资本变动 与传统会计利润不同,自由现金流不仅剔除了非现金项目(如 折旧与摊销）的影响,也独立于外部融资,能够更加真实地衡 量企业经营能力。 聚焦高自由现金流企业,或能够帮助投资者规 文 | 避投资陷阱,力争长期收益。 ● 企业的主营业 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investing in A-shares can indeed outperform inflation over the long term, as the overall economic development of the country supports stock market growth [4][5]. Group 1: A-share Market Performance - The representative index for A-shares is the CSI All Share Index, which covers all listed companies in A-shares, providing a stronger representation compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [6]. - The CSI All Share Index started at 1000 points at the end of 2004 and is projected to reach 4750.67 points by December 31, 2024. Including dividends, the total return index is expected to rise to 6284.26 points [6]. - The historical average annualized return for A-shares over the past decade is approximately 9%-10% [8]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investing in stock funds can yield better returns than directly investing in A-shares, with the total return index for all A-share stock funds rising from 1164 points at the end of 2004 to 9140.39 points by December 31, 2024, resulting in an annualized return of 11%-13% [8]. - The phrase "investing in funds is better than trading stocks" reflects the higher average returns from stock funds, as they can exclude poorly performing companies [9]. - Stock funds can be categorized into two types: passive funds (index funds) and active funds, with index funds being a good entry point for individual investors due to their clear rules, low costs, and ease of management [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations of the Shanghai Composite Index around the 3700-point mark, highlighting its psychological significance and the differences in market conditions compared to previous years. It emphasizes that despite the index's stagnation, the total return index has shown significant growth, indicating underlying investment opportunities [3][4][5]. Group 1: Index Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassed 3700 points but closed at 3666.44 points, indicating a struggle to maintain this level [3][4]. - The index has shown a slight increase of 0.31% from 3655.09 points to 3666.44 points, but the total return index has increased by 13.73% from 3666.87 points to 4170.49 points, reflecting better investment performance [7][8]. - The largest ETFs tracking the Shanghai Composite Index have surpassed their values from February 2021, indicating strong performance despite the index's struggles [10]. Group 2: Changes in Index Composition - The composition of the Shanghai Composite Index has changed significantly over the past four and a half years, with 72 stocks exiting and 763 new stocks entering, resulting in a total of 2232 constituent stocks [12][15]. - The weight of the electronics sector has increased from 4.45% to 9.47%, while the food and beverage sector has seen a significant decrease from 12.41% to 5.49% [18][19]. Group 3: Sector Contributions - The banking sector has contributed significantly to the index's performance, with a weight increase from 16.04% to 18.52%, while the food and beverage sector has been a major drag on performance [18][19][31]. - The top-performing sectors include coal (178% increase), oil and petrochemicals (116% increase), and banking (78% increase), while the worst-performing sectors include social services (-73%), beauty and personal care (-50%), and food and beverage (-42%) [30][31]. Group 4: Key Stocks Impacting the Index - Key stocks such as Agricultural Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank, and China Petroleum have significantly influenced the index's performance, contributing to a rise of 14.64% if excluded from the analysis [32][33]. - Conversely, stocks like Kweichow Moutai and China Duty Free have negatively impacted the index, suggesting a substantial influence of individual stocks on overall performance [32][33].