2026年首个交易日，人民币对美元即期汇率延续升值势头。 在地缘政治风险重新升温的背景下，美元指数连续第二个交易日走强，1月5日最高升至98.7984。 中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬预计，1月人民币汇率将维持平稳双向波动格局。近期在美元指数止跌回稳的情况下，人民币对美元仍在快速攀 升，离岸汇率已升破6.97。不过美国经济仍存较强韧性，三季度实际国内生产总值按年率计算增长4.3%，较第二季度3.8%的增速加快；通过打算 增加招聘的小企业主比例前瞻性预测显示，后续美国新增非农就业人数或也将逐步回升。假若美国就业市场果真企稳，不排除美元阶段性转强， 这或将对人民币升值的态势有所抑制。1月份在季节性结汇需求支撑下，人民币或仍有升值空间，不过人民币对美元中间价已朝着调贬的方向偏离 即期汇率收盘价，或预示着外汇市场近期存在一定的顺周期行为。 "总的来看，在监管部门秉承保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上基本稳定、防范汇率超调风险的政策基调下，1月份人民币汇率尽管仍可能偏强运 行，但预计不会较大幅升值，大部分时间或在6.9-7区间双向波动。"温彬指出。 1月5日，人民币对美元即期汇率盘中最高升至6.9770，再度刷新2023年5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Yuan (CNY) has strengthened against the US Dollar (USD), reaching a one-year high as the USD index declines, with the onshore CNY/USD exchange rate breaking key psychological levels [1][3]. Exchange Rate Movements - On November 13, the CNY/USD exchange rate rose to 7.0959, an increase of 213 basis points from the previous trading day, marking the highest level since mid-October 2024 [1]. - The offshore CNY/USD rate also surpassed the 7.10 mark, reaching a monthly high of 7.09400 [2]. USD Index Performance - The USD index reversed its upward trend, dropping to a low of 99.2914, reflecting a decline of over 0.15% [3]. Monetary Policy Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasized maintaining a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, aiming for stability in the CNY exchange rate [3]. Analyst Predictions - Analysts predict that the CNY will remain strong in the short term, with a focus on USD trends and the PBOC's intervention in the CNY midpoint rate. The CNY is expected to maintain a stable trajectory with limited volatility against the USD, with a low likelihood of breaking the 7.0 level before year-end [4].

Core Points - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate from 4.25%-4.5% to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year [1][2] - The FOMC's dot plot indicates two more rate cuts are expected this year, totaling 50 basis points, which is one more than previously forecasted in June [2][6] - The market reacted sharply to the announcement, with mixed results in major U.S. stock indices [2] Economic Outlook - The FOMC noted a slowdown in economic activity and employment growth, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains low [1][4] - The August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2.7% year-over-year, with core PCE up 2.9%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [5] - The FOMC emphasized its commitment to achieving "maximum employment" and a 2% inflation target, acknowledging increased risks to employment [4][5] Market Reactions - The U.S. dollar index experienced significant volatility, initially dropping to a new low since 2025 before rebounding [3][9] - Investors are increasingly looking to hedge against a weakening dollar, with a survey indicating 38% of fund managers seeking to increase hedging positions [9][10] - The Chinese yuan strengthened against the dollar, reaching a near 10.5-month high, influenced by expectations of further rate cuts by the Fed [10] Federal Reserve Dynamics - The FOMC's decision was passed with 11 votes in favor and 1 against, with the dissenting vote coming from newly appointed member Stephen Milan, who favored a larger cut [6][7] - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have been raised due to political pressures, particularly from President Trump [6][7] - The FOMC's economic projections show an increase in GDP growth expectations and a decrease in unemployment rate forecasts for the coming years [8]