Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommended" rating for the telecommunications industry, considering the sustained high prosperity of the sector driven by AI, 5.5G, and satellite communications [2][6]. Core Insights - The overall market performance for the week (October 6-12, 2025) saw the Shanghai Composite Index rise by 0.37%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.26%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 3.86%. The telecommunications sector, represented by the Shenwan Communications Index, declined by 1.60% [2][12]. - Among the sub-sectors, "Other Communication Equipment" experienced the smallest decline at 0.14%, while "Communication Application Value-Added Services" faced the largest drop at 3.83% [2][14]. - Notable individual stock performances included Yongding Co., which rose by 16.52%, followed by ZTE Corporation at 13.94%, and Tongyu Communication at 10.38% [2][16]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The telecommunications sector's index fell by 1.60% during the week, with various sub-sectors showing a downward trend [12][14]. - The report highlights the impact of international trade risks, particularly related to tariffs on key materials and software, which have led to market fluctuations [3]. Key Focus Areas - **Computing Power Supply Chain**: The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring leading module suppliers with high certainty in performance, especially in light of increasing international tensions and the need for self-sufficiency in AI technologies [3]. - **Satellite Internet**: The report notes the ongoing commercial trials for satellite IoT services, indicating a shift from manufacturing to operational services in the satellite industry. However, it also points out the high costs of satellite launches and the unclear operational models [4]. Company Announcements - The report includes significant announcements from companies within the telecommunications sector, such as performance forecasts and stock buybacks, indicating ongoing corporate activities and market adjustments [25][26].

Core Viewpoint - The demand for AI computing power is driving new opportunities in the optical module industry, with Guangxun Technology planning to raise up to 3.5 billion yuan through a private placement to enhance its production capacity and R&D in high-speed optical transmission products and emerging optoelectronic technologies [1][2]. Group 1: Company Plans and Financials - Guangxun Technology plans to issue up to 242 million shares to no more than 35 specific investors, including its actual controller, China Information Communication Technologies Group [1][2]. - The company reported a revenue of 5.243 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 68.59%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 372 million yuan, up 78.98% year-on-year [1][4]. - The funds raised will be allocated to three main areas, including the production of optical connection and high-speed optical transmission products, R&D for high-speed optical interconnection, and supplementing working capital [2][3]. Group 2: Market Trends and Opportunities - The demand for optical modules in data communication is expected to continue growing, with Ethernet optical module demand projected to exceed 20 billion USD by 2029 [2]. - The global computing power scale reached 1397 EFlops in 2023, a 54% year-on-year increase, and is expected to surpass 16 ZFlops by 2030, indicating a significant growth in AI computing needs [2]. - The demand for high-speed optical modules, especially those rated at 800G and above, is surging, becoming a core component in AI data centers [2][3]. Group 3: Investment Projects - The "Optical Connection and High-Speed Optical Transmission Product Production Construction Project" has a total investment of 2.482 billion yuan, with 2.083 billion yuan sourced from the raised funds, and a construction period of four years [3]. - The project is expected to alleviate capacity bottlenecks and enhance the supply capability of high-end products, thereby strengthening the company's competitive edge in AI data centers and telecommunications markets [3]. - An additional investment of 1 billion yuan is planned for R&D in high-speed optical interconnection and emerging optoelectronic technologies, focusing on next-generation pluggable optical modules and optical engines based on Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) technology [3].

Core Viewpoint - The CPO concept continues to rise in the afternoon, with Zhongji Xuchuang increasing over 9%, reaching a historical high, following Changfei Optical Fiber's eight consecutive days of gains [1] Industry Summary - According to Lightcounting's forecast, the global Ethernet optical module market is expected to grow rapidly, with a projected increase of 35% to $18.9 billion in 2026 [1] - The growth rate is anticipated to remain in double digits from 2027 to 2030, with the market expected to exceed $35 billion by 2030 [1] Company Summary - Companies such as Changguang Huaxin, Guangku Technology, Shijia Photon, and Changxin Bochuang have shown significant gains, contributing to the overall positive trend in the CPO sector [1]

Core Insights - The LightCounting report indicates that investments by cloud companies in data centers and supporting network infrastructure are creating a new and vibrant segment in the optical module market, driven by AI demand from 2023 to 2025, which is expected to continue until 2030 [1] Group 1: Market Growth and Projections - The optical module sales for AI are projected to show strong growth from 2023 to 2025, with a significant increase in demand for optical interconnects due to the AI boom [1] - From 2026 to 2030, the application of optical interconnect technology in AI Scale-up networks is expected to further expand the market, with CPO being the preferred choice due to higher bandwidth density and reliability [3] - LightCounting forecasts an annual market growth rate of 30-35% for 2025 and 2026, followed by 15-20% from 2027 to 2030, as the AI hype begins to stabilize [3] Group 2: Capital Expenditure Insights - Major North American cloud companies are significantly increasing their capital expenditures, with Google raising its 2025 capex to approximately $85 billion, Microsoft exceeding $30 billion in Q1 FY2026, Meta adjusting its 2025 capex range to between $66 billion and $72 billion, and Oracle exceeding $25 billion in FY2026 [3] Group 3: Supply Chain and Market Adjustments - The ongoing trade war has not significantly impacted the supply chain for optical modules sold to U.S. cloud companies, although NVIDIA's GPU sales restrictions to China have temporarily stalled demand from Chinese cloud companies [4] - LightCounting has adjusted its sales forecasts for Alibaba, ByteDance, and Tencent for 2025 downward but has increased the forecast for 2026 [4] - The forecast for 800G ZR/ZR+ optical modules has been raised for 2026-2027 due to a shift from onboard solutions to pluggable DWDM modules by major clients [4] Group 4: Emerging Market Needs - The expansion of AI clusters and the peak capacity of single data centers, along with power supply limitations, necessitate the distribution of GPU deployments, with latency being a key factor limiting the range of distributed AI clusters to within 20 kilometers [4] - Coherent-lite optical modules, categorized under the Ethernet market, are expected to effectively meet the emerging demands of this new market [4]