Core Viewpoint - The consumer goods sector is expected to gradually bottom out in demand by 2026, with a narrowing of price declines, although the potential for upward recovery may be limited due to intense competition and weakening raw material cost advantages [1][2]. Group 1: Consumer Goods Industry Overview - The consumer goods sector experienced weak demand and intense competition in the first three quarters of 2025, leading to a decline in both volume and price [2]. - The demand for consumer goods is anticipated to stabilize in 2026, supported by a healthy inventory level and the upcoming consumption peak due to the Spring Festival preparations [2]. - Despite the expected stabilization in demand, the consumer goods sector may still face slight pressure on terminal prices due to ongoing weak demand and a trend towards cost-effective consumption [2]. Group 2: Dairy Products - The liquid milk sector faced a decline in demand due to weakened consumer purchasing power, but the rate of decline has slowed compared to 2024 [3]. - Improvements in raw milk supply and demand are expected, with milk prices projected to stop declining and potentially recover in the second half of 2026 [3]. - The liquid milk industry is anticipated to stabilize at its fundamental bottom in 2026, with reduced promotional pricing and a narrowing of price declines [3]. Group 3: Snacks - The snack industry is expected to continue benefiting from channel growth in 2025, particularly in bulk snack channels and membership supermarkets, despite a slowdown in e-commerce and traditional channels [4]. - The profitability of the snack sector is under pressure due to rising raw material costs and increased competition [4]. - In 2026, the focus will be on growth stocks within the snack sector, particularly those benefiting from the ongoing trends in specific product categories [4]. Group 4: Food Supply Chain - The food supply chain sector is closely tied to the performance of the downstream restaurant industry, which is currently experiencing weak overall conditions [5]. - Structural highlights include resilient leading companies gaining market share and the acceleration of mergers and acquisitions to expand categories and channels [5]. - The sector is expected to show signs of marginal improvement in 2026, with potential recovery in demand and easing competitive pressures [5]. Group 5: Beverage Industry - The beverage sector experienced fluctuations in demand in 2025, with a negative growth trend emerging in the third quarter due to price wars on delivery platforms [6]. - The health and functional beverage categories performed better than others, and despite intense competition, many companies managed to improve net profit margins [6]. - A recovery in beverage demand is anticipated in 2026, with expected growth in the mid to high single digits, contingent on market demand and raw material prices [6][7].

Summary of Yili Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Yili Co., Ltd. - **Industry**: Dairy Products Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - Yili expects positive revenue growth for the entire year of 2025, despite a potential decline in liquid milk business in Q4 due to the Spring Festival mismatch. However, milk powder, cheese, and ice cream businesses are projected to achieve double-digit growth [2][5] - For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue reached 90.564 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%. Net profit, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, was 10.103 billion yuan, up 18.7%, marking the highest level for the same period in history [3][5] - The liquid milk business saw a decline of approximately 9% in revenue in Q3 2025, primarily due to adjustments in sales volume and product structure [6] Business Strategy - The company is diversifying its product matrix, moving away from reliance on single blockbuster products to a broader range of offerings, particularly in dairy beverages [2][7] - Yili is actively exploring new channels such as membership stores, snack discount stores, and ready-to-eat retail, launching customized products to capture growth opportunities [2][8] - The company is upgrading its value chain and operational systems in the liquid milk business, aiming for a return to stable growth as consumer confidence stabilizes and industry supply-demand improves [9][10] Market Trends and Challenges - The raw milk processing sector is improving, with expectations of a rebound in raw milk prices next year, enhancing the competitive advantage of leading companies [4][10] - The overall industry is facing intense competition due to a relatively abundant supply of raw milk, prompting Yili to focus on maintaining a healthy industry ecosystem and enhancing operational efficiency [11] Product Development - Yili's infant formula business has continued its double-digit growth trend, supported by brand development, product innovation, and channel construction, with a market share increase of 1.1 percentage points for its premium formula [4][14] - The company is also focusing on high-end functional products in the adult nutrition segment, with plans to expand into rare milk sources like goat and camel milk [24] Future Outlook - Yili anticipates a double-digit growth for the entire year, with specific growth in high-value-added products such as cream, butter, and whey protein [12][24] - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 70% in the coming years, with flexibility in returning profits to shareholders through cash dividends and share buybacks [25] Non-Dairy Business - Yili is exploring non-dairy products, with initial success in bottled water and tea beverages, aiming to scale these categories over the next five years [27] Additional Important Information - The company is leveraging digital transformation and innovative marketing strategies to enhance consumer engagement and brand influence [11][13] - Yili's international market experience has led to significant growth, particularly in Southeast Asia, with plans to replicate successful strategies in other high-potential markets [13] This summary encapsulates the key insights from Yili Co., Ltd.'s conference call, highlighting its financial performance, strategic initiatives, market challenges, and future outlook in the dairy industry.

Group 1: Overall Market Trends - The demand for consumer goods remains weak in Q2 2025, with no significant improvement on a quarter-on-quarter basis [1] - Raw material costs for consumer goods companies are mostly at the bottom or in a downward trend, but competition in the industry remains intense, leading to limited improvement in profitability [1] Group 2: Dairy Products - Demand for ambient liquid milk remains weak, while demand for low-temperature liquid milk, cheese, and ice cream shows improvement [2] - The supply-demand situation for raw milk is improving, but competition remains high due to excess supply [2] - The performance of upstream dairy farms is expected to remain under pressure in H1 2025 due to falling milk prices and changes in herd structure [2] Group 3: Food Supply Chain - The demand for the food supply chain remains weak, with most companies showing relatively flat revenue performance [3] - Prices for raw materials like flour, soybeans, and sugar have decreased year-on-year, while prices for plant oils and imported dairy products have increased [3] Group 4: Snacks - The konjac category remains strong, but there is noticeable differentiation within the snack sector [4] - Online channel revenue growth for snacks has slowed, while demand for quail eggs has also decreased [4] Group 5: Beverages - The beverage industry continues to show a favorable demand environment, with health and functional products leading growth [5] - Increased competition is noted as multiple manufacturers engage in promotional activities and invest in large packaging products [5]

Summary of the Conference Call for Yili Group Industry Overview - The liquid milk industry is experiencing weak terminal sales in Q2 2025, but is expected to perform better than Q1 due to a low base from the previous year and inventory adjustments [2][3] - There is still growth potential in the dairy industry, particularly in lower-tier cities and new retail channels [2][7] Company Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved positive revenue growth with a 24% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders [3] - The company aims for revenue growth that outpaces the industry and targets a net profit margin of 9% [2][4] Product Performance - Low-temperature liquid milk has shown slight growth, while room-temperature liquid milk has experienced a mid-single-digit decline [2][5] - The company is focusing on high-end products and optimizing SKU to improve revenue in low-temperature liquid milk [2][5] - The introduction of high-cost performance products is expected to impact product structure but will help in reducing raw milk costs [2][8] Market Strategy - The company is cautious about liquid milk growth expectations, with a strategy to reduce channel inventory and launch customized products [2][5][9] - The adult nutrition market is a key focus, with a market share of 24% and a goal for double-digit growth [3][16] - The infant formula segment has seen a balanced development, with a target to increase market share and reach the top position by 2027 [3][15] Supply Chain and Pricing - The company sources milk primarily from local suppliers, with about 40% from its own farms [13] - The current low milk prices are affecting the market, but the company is focusing on channel opportunities rather than just low pricing strategies [14][21] Future Outlook - The dairy industry is expected to have significant growth opportunities, especially in new retail channels and increased per capita consumption [7][22] - The company is exploring non-dairy businesses and international markets, aiming for substantial growth in these areas over the next five years [18][22] Competitive Landscape - The competitive environment in the dairy market has shifted, with the company maintaining stable pricing strategies to ensure market share [23] - New product launches have performed well, contributing positively to the company's growth [24] Conclusion - The company is strategically positioned to navigate the current challenges in the dairy market while capitalizing on growth opportunities in various segments and channels [2][7][18]