2025年魔芋零食行业呈现高度景气，积极布局相关品类的盐津铺子（002847）、卫龙美味收入与股价均 实现相对零食大盘的超额增长。展望2026年，市场重点关注魔芋的持续性如何，该行认为：1)成长仍具 持续性，魔芋健康+美味底层逻辑不改，且传统魔芋产品调味以辣、咸为主，契合情绪消费趋势，渗透 率仍有提升空间;创新"魔芋+"产品有望从其他品类引流新客群、并且提升魔芋已有消费者复购，进一步 拓宽品类上限。2)竞争格局无虞，参考日本薯片的发展历史：短期来看，行业高增期间难免出现价格竞 争，但头部企业竞争力更强，市场份额仍在提升，此外能力较强的其他品类零食企业跨界布局后也能贡 献收入增长;长期来看，头部企业能够凭借其产品创新与供应链能力穿越周期，实现份额的长期提升。 回归国内视角，短期来看，该行认为卫龙、盐津具备品类心智、规模优势与渠道优势，预计能够有力应 对价格竞争，劲仔、洽洽则有望分享品类红利。长期来看，卫龙与盐津已在产品创新、供应链形成一定 护城河，品类CR2有望持续提升。 中国银河（601881）证券发布研报称，11月上旬食品饮料指数持续修复，相较于大盘已经实现超额收 益，主要得益于市场风格切换以及CPI增速转 ...

2025年复盘：行业表现较弱，白酒调整为主因，大众品复苏趋势不变 从整体来看，2025年前三季度食品饮料收入同比+0.1%，利润同比-14.6%，均慢于去年同期水平，对应 行业指数年初至今涨跌幅在31个子行业中排名第31。从结构来看，白酒周期调整为食品饮料表现较弱的 主要因素，实际上大众品复苏长期趋势不变，并且内部节奏呈现H1新消费领先(功能饮料+魔芋零食+量 贩渠道+山姆渠道)、H2传统消费修复接力(速冻食品等)。 智通财经APP获悉，中国银河证券发布研报称，2025年食饮行业表现较弱，白酒调整为主因，大众品复 苏趋势不变。该行认为2026年食品饮料行业仍以结构性机会为主：1)新消费仍具持续性，但板块内部或 有轮动;2)部分传统消费供给逐渐出清，需求改善有望推动板块修复，例如乳制品、速冻食品等。该行 认为2026年新消费将出现内部轮动。 中国银河证券主要观点如下： 2026年展望：结构性机会延续，新消费内部轮动，传统消费底部修复 若2026年宏观经济恢复节奏仍然偏温和，该行认为食品饮料行业仍以结构性机会为主：1)新消费仍具持 续性，但板块内部或有轮动;2)部分传统消费供给逐渐出清，需求改善有望推动板块修复， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the food and beverage industry, highlighting several key companies as investment opportunities [3][4]. Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is experiencing internal rotation in new consumption and improvement at the bottom of traditional consumption. The overall performance in 2025 was weak, primarily due to the adjustment in the liquor sector, but the long-term recovery trend for mass consumer goods remains intact [3][8]. - For 2026, structural opportunities are expected to continue, with new consumption showing internal rotation and traditional consumption gradually recovering from the bottom [3][15]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In 2025, the food and beverage sector's revenue grew by only 0.1% year-on-year, while profits fell by 14.6%, underperforming compared to the previous year. The industry index ranked last among 31 sub-industries with a decline of 4.8% [8][11]. - The adjustment in the liquor sector is identified as the main factor for the overall weak performance, while the recovery trend for mass consumer goods is expected to persist [8][11]. Soft Drinks - The beverage industry is projected to benefit from a rebound in travel demand in 2026, with a revenue increase of 6.2% in the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year [42][45]. - Cost advantages from declining prices of raw materials like sugar and PET are expected to continue, enhancing profit margins for beverage companies [45][49]. Snacks - The konjac snack sector is experiencing high growth, with companies like Salted Fish and Wei Long achieving significant revenue increases in 2025 [66][67]. - The competitive landscape for konjac products is expected to remain manageable, with established brands likely to maintain their market positions despite new entrants [70][76]. Dairy Products - The dairy sector is anticipated to see a recovery in supply-demand balance, with raw milk prices expected to stabilize in 2026 due to ongoing supply adjustments [38][39]. - Policies promoting consumption are expected to benefit liquid milk and milk powder sales, driving demand improvements [38][39]. Frozen and Condiment Products - The frozen food sector is expected to see performance improvements as competition stabilizes, with a focus on recovery in demand [38][39]. - The condiment sector is also projected to benefit from a gradual recovery in consumer demand [38][39]. Liquor - The liquor industry is still in an adjustment phase but is gradually approaching a bottoming out stage, with supply clearing expected to continue into 2026 [6][25]. - The report suggests that the long-term value of liquor stocks will become more apparent as the market stabilizes [6][25]. Investment Recommendations - Key companies to watch include Dongpeng Beverage, Nongfu Spring, and Moutai in the beverage sector, as well as Wei Long and Salted Fish in the snack sector [6][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the leisure food industry and specific companies such as Wei Long Mei Wei, Yan Jin Pu Zi, Jin Zai Food, and Wan Chen Group [4][5]. Core Insights - The leisure food market in China is projected to reach 1.344 trillion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% and a CAGR of 4.4% from 2019 to 2024, expected to increase to 5.5% from 2025 to 2029 [1][15]. - The industry is characterized by a highly fragmented competitive landscape, with the top five and ten companies holding only 5.9% and 10.4% of the market share, respectively [1][22]. - Structural changes are reshaping the industry, including the rise of new retail channels, increased health consciousness among consumers, vertical integration in supply chains, and accelerated globalization efforts by leading companies [1][2][33]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The leisure food sector is a multi-billion market with diverse product categories, including snacks, nuts, and baked goods, focusing on fulfilling various consumer needs beyond mere hunger [15][18]. - The market is expected to continue expanding, with significant room for growth in per capita consumption, currently at 954.4 yuan, which is substantially lower than in the US and Japan [2][15]. Competitive Landscape - The industry is marked by intense competition and low concentration, with major players like Mars and Mondelez holding a small market share compared to their counterparts in the US [22][23]. - The competitive dynamics are shifting from price wars to differentiation and efficiency battles, as consumer demands become more diverse and nuanced [2][3]. Structural Changes - New retail formats such as bulk snack stores and instant retail are emerging, challenging traditional retail channels [33][34]. - Health awareness is driving innovation in product offerings, with a notable rise in demand for healthier snack options like konjac products, which are low in calories and high in dietary fiber [66][70]. Future Outlook - The report identifies three core drivers for industry growth: product innovation, scenario extension, and international expansion [2][3]. - Leading brands are expected to strengthen their market positions, with opportunities for both manufacturing and channel-focused companies to benefit from evolving consumer preferences and retail dynamics [2][3][4]. Company-Specific Insights - Wei Long Mei Wei and Yan Jin Pu Zi are highlighted as key players in the konjac snack segment, with significant revenue growth anticipated [3][70]. - Jin Zai Food is undergoing channel reforms and launching new products, while Wan Chen Group is expanding its discount supermarket presence, indicating potential for long-term growth [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5][11]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is currently characterized by "low base, low holdings, and low expectations," indicating potential for stock price increases with any changes in supply and demand dynamics [3][11]. - The report highlights a divergence in performance across categories, with beverages outperforming food and alcoholic beverages [2][11]. - The report suggests that the liquor segment is entering a left-side layout phase, with quality companies expected to gain greater growth opportunities [2][11]. Summary by Relevant Sections Liquor - The liquor sector is experiencing an expanded decline in performance, with Q3 revenue down 18.4% year-on-year and net profit down 22.2% [2][11]. - Recommended companies include Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Guizhou Moutai, which are expected to benefit from national expansion and pricing power [2][11]. - The report notes that the current inventory clearance pace is similar to the 2013-2014 period, suggesting a potential recovery in the future [11]. Beer - The beer industry is in a healthy inventory position, awaiting demand recovery, with recommendations for Yanjing Beer and China Resources Beer [12][11]. - The report anticipates that the relaxation of consumption regulations will positively impact beer sales [12]. Dairy Products - The dairy sector is seeing a steady recovery in demand, with a recommendation for Yili as a leading company with valuation safety margins [14][11]. - The report indicates that the supply side is gradually clearing, which may lead to improved supply-demand dynamics by 2025 [14]. Snacks - The report emphasizes the importance of strong alpha stocks in the snack sector, particularly focusing on the growth potential of konjac snacks [12][11]. - Leading companies in this category, such as Weidong and Yanjin Pouch, are highlighted for their competitive advantages and strong growth prospects [12]. Food Supply Chain - The food supply chain sector is showing signs of stabilization, with recommendations for leading companies like Yihai International and Haitian Flavoring [13][11]. - The report notes that the overall profitability of the industry is expected to gradually stabilize as companies optimize their expense management [13]. Beverages - The beverage sector continues to show strong performance, with recommendations for Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage, which are expected to benefit from accelerated operations and national expansion [14][11]. - The report highlights the ongoing growth in the no-sugar tea and energy drink segments, indicating a favorable outlook for leading companies [14].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guohai Securities indicates that Yanjinpuzi achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 605 million yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.63% [1] - In Q3 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 232 million yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 33.55% [1] Revenue and Profitability - The konjac segment continues to show strong momentum, with improving profitability and impressive performance in quantitative distribution channels [1] - The company currently operates three major business divisions, with the spicy division focusing on konjac snacks, leveraging channel reuse advantages to promote the development of the dried tofu product line [1] Organizational Strength and Strategy - The company excels in production and manufacturing, with strong organizational capabilities that enable it to identify and seize opportunities [1] - On the channel side, the company adheres to an omnichannel strategy, embracing high-growth channels and overseas markets [1] Product Development - The formation of three major business divisions is expected to enhance product upgrades, which may lead to improved profit levels for the company [1] - The overall strategy is aimed at boosting the company's profitability through product innovation and market expansion [1]

Core Insights - The company achieved revenue of 4.427 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.67%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 605 million yuan, up 22.63% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, revenue reached 1.486 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.05%, with a net profit of 232 million yuan, reflecting a 33.55% year-on-year growth [1] Revenue Growth Drivers - Revenue growth is driven by konjac products, with significant performance in quantitative circulation channels [1] - The company focuses on a big product strategy, enhancing brand momentum and product awareness across all channels, leading to strong growth in konjac products [1] - The quantitative circulation channel continues to show high growth, supported by targeted channel management and improved product displays [1] Profitability and Margin Improvement - In Q3 2025, the net profit margin increased by 3.21 percentage points to 15.60%, while the net profit margin excluding non-recurring items rose by 3.97 percentage points to 14.78% [2] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 31.63%, up 1.01 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the reduction of inefficient SKUs and product structure optimization [2] - The company reduced sales expense ratio by 3.54 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved cost management [2] Product and Category Development - The company operates three main business divisions: spicy snacks centered on konjac, health products including quail eggs, and sweet products with growth potential [2] - The quail egg product has become the industry leader, with new product launches planned to further enhance market presence [2] Future Outlook and Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at 6.025 billion, 7.240 billion, and 8.741 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 14%, 20%, and 21% respectively [3] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 846 million, 1.024 billion, and 1.254 billion yuan, with expected growth rates of 32%, 21%, and 23% respectively [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on strong organizational capabilities and a comprehensive channel strategy [3]

Core Viewpoint - Yanjinpuzi (002847) has reported significant sales achievements for its innovative product "Big Devil" sesame sauce, which reached over 100 million (including tax) in monthly sales within just 16 months of its launch, setting a record for the fastest monthly sales in the snack industry [1] Group 1 - The company has adopted a big product strategy since 2025, focusing on enhancing brand momentum and product recognition across all channels, which has become a key driver for revenue growth [1] - The revenue from konjac snacks has shown rapid year-on-year growth in Q3, with continuous positive growth on a quarterly basis [1]

Core Insights - Salted Fish Company reported a revenue of 4.427 billion yuan for the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.67% [2] - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 605 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 22.63% [2] - In the third quarter, the revenue reached 1.486 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.05%, while the net profit was 232 million yuan, up 33.55% year-on-year [2] Revenue and Profit Growth - The company experienced steady growth in both revenue and profit in the third quarter, with significant year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter increases [2] - The revenue from konjac products continued to grow strongly, while deep-sea snacks and leisure bean products also showed stable revenue growth [2] Product Innovation and Market Performance - The quail egg product line, through research and innovation, has successfully launched a soft-boiled quail egg that made it to the "Sam's New Products Hot Sale List" [2] - The high-margin products' revenue share has increased, contributing to improved net profit and gross profit margins [2] Business Division Highlights - The Spicy Division focuses on konjac snacks and leverages channel reuse advantages to promote the development of tofu products, with potential for new hit products like tiger skin fish tofu and tiger skin dried tofu [2] - The Health Division includes quail eggs and deep-sea series, with quail egg products becoming the industry leader, and two of the company's quail egg products are now available at Sam's Club [2] - The Sweet Division encompasses dried fruits, jellies, and baked potato products, all of which have significant growth potential for major products [2] R&D and Innovation Focus - Each business division emphasizes research and development as a driving force, concentrating on product innovation to continuously create star products, thereby providing diversified growth momentum for the company's revenue [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5][15]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is expected to see a recovery in demand, with specific focus on the upcoming quarterly reports and potential policy catalysts, particularly for Kweichow Moutai, which is anticipated to undergo a revaluation [2][3][10]. - The report highlights a divergence in the fundamentals of different categories, with beverages outperforming food and alcoholic beverages [2][10]. - The overall sentiment in the food and beverage sector is characterized by low expectations, low holdings, and low bases, suggesting that any changes in supply and demand could significantly impact stock prices [3][10]. Summary by Category Alcoholic Beverages - The report anticipates a quicker release of third-quarter results, with a focus on policy catalysts. Kweichow Moutai is expected to see a revaluation due to improved sales dynamics and liquidity [2][10]. - Recommendations include Luzhou Laojiao for its strategic advantages and product growth, and Kweichow Moutai for its potential value reappraisal [2][10]. Beverages - The beverage sector is experiencing stable demand recovery, with a focus on dairy products and the potential for upward elasticity in supply and demand by 2025. The report recommends leading dairy company Yili for its valuation safety margin [2][12]. - The report continues to recommend Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage for their accelerated operations and national expansion strategies [2][14]. Snacks - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting alpha-type stocks with strong certainty, particularly in the konjac snack category, where leading companies like Weidong and Yanjinpuzi are highlighted for their competitive advantages and strong growth potential [2][11]. Restaurant Supply Chain - The restaurant supply chain is entering a peak observation phase, with stable demand and a focus on inventory clearance. Recommendations include leading companies in the seasoning sector like Haitian Flavoring and Ajinomoto, as well as new channels that may bring incremental growth [2][12][13]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecasts - Kweichow Moutai is projected to have total revenues of CNY 186.3 billion and CNY 193.0 billion for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with net profits of CNY 90.5 billion and CNY 94.0 billion [15]. - Other recommended companies include Nongfu Spring, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Dongpeng Beverage, and Weidong, all rated as "Outperform the Market" with strong earnings growth expectations [4][15].