1. 同程旅行第四季度业绩预期怎么样？ 截至2025年12月17日，根据朝阳永续季度业绩前瞻数据： 预测公司Q4一致预期营业收入45.70~48.44亿元，同比增长7.9%~14.3%； | 亿元人民币 | | | | | | | 关注朝阳永续公众号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 美营业收入 | - F F 同比 | 净利润 | 同比 | 经调整净利润 | 同比 | | 测区间 | | 45.70~48.44 | 7.9%~14.3% | 4.15~7.95 | 18.3%~126.7% | 7.24~7.58 | 9.6%~14.8% | | ( | | 47.41 | 11.9% | 6.12 | 74.5% 0 | 7.41 | 12.3% | | t | | 47.46 | 12.0% | 6.04 | 72.2% | 7.39 | 11.9% | | | 2025-12-13 | 47.44 | 12.0% | -- | -- | -- | -- | | 关 | 2025-12-08 | 48.44 | 14.3% ...

1. 同程旅行第四季度业绩预期怎么样？ 截至2025年12月09日，根据朝阳永续季度业绩前瞻数据： 预测营业收入45.70~48.44亿元，同比增长7.9%~14.3%； 预测净利润4.15~7.95亿元，同比增长18.3%~126.7%； 预测经调整净利润7.24~7.58亿元，同比增长9.6%~14.8%。 关注后续财报数据披露后能否超预期，朝阳永续港股季度业绩前瞻数据将为投资者提供业绩鉴定。 | 机构简称 | | (营业收入 | | 净利润 | 同比 | 经调整净利润 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 卖方预测区间 | | 45.70~48.44 | 7.9%~14.3% | 4.15~7.95 | 18.3%~126.7% | 7.24~7.58 | 9.6%~14.8% | | 平均数 | | 47.41 | 11.9% | 6.12 | 74.5% | 7.41 | 12.3% | | 中位数 | | 47.46 | 12.0% | 6.04 | 72.2% | 7.39 | 11.9% | | 华泰证券 | 20 ...

Group 1 - Ctrip reported a revenue growth of 16% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 194.01% in Q3 2025, achieving a net profit of 199 billion yuan, surpassing Kweichow Moutai's net profit of 192.2 billion yuan [3][4] - The significant profit increase was partly due to the disposal of certain assets, including a portion of its stake in MakeMyTrip, which contributed 170.32 billion yuan in "other income" [3][4] - Ctrip's gross margin reached 81.55%, significantly higher than other major internet companies like Tencent and NetEase, which reported gross margins of 56.41% and 64.10% respectively [5][7] Group 2 - The hotel booking segment contributed 80 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 43.72% of total revenue, marking the highest proportion in three years [9] - Ctrip's commission rates for hotels are notably high, with some hotels paying up to 20% in commissions, reflecting the industry's heavy reliance on Ctrip for customer acquisition [10][12] - Ctrip's market share in the domestic OTA market is projected to be 56% in 2024, significantly ahead of competitors like Tongcheng, Meituan, and Fliggy [12] Group 3 - Ctrip enjoys a strong competitive advantage with no significant direct competitors in the domestic OTA market, allowing it to capitalize on its market leader status [16][17] - The company has strategically invested in and partnered with potential competitors in the past, effectively consolidating the market and reducing price competition [13][14] - Ctrip's focus on service quality has fostered customer loyalty, making it difficult for competitors to gain market share despite potential price incentives [16][17]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's Q1 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with total revenue of 13.8 billion (up 16% year-on-year), operating profit of 3.6 billion (margin of 26%), and adjusted net profit of 4.2 billion (up 3% year-on-year) [4][7] - The international business continues to show strong growth, driven by favorable visa-free policies, with overseas OTA platform bookings up 60% year-on-year and inbound tourism bookings more than doubling [4][5] - The company expects revenue for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 61.4 billion, 68.5 billion, and 76.5 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15%, 12%, and 12% [7] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2025 revenue breakdown: accommodation booking revenue of 5.5 billion (up 23% year-on-year), transportation ticketing revenue of 5.4 billion (up 8% year-on-year), and other business revenue of 1.4 billion (up 33% year-on-year) [4] - The company anticipates adjusted net profits of 18.7 billion, 21.8 billion, and 24.7 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3%, 16%, and 14% [7][10] - The total market capitalization is 34.79 billion HKD [9]

Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 earnings with total revenue of 13.8 billion (up 16% YoY), operating profit of 3.6 billion (margin of 26%), and adjusted net profit of 4.2 billion (up 3% YoY), all exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates [4][7] - The international business continues to show strong growth, with overseas OTA platform bookings up 60% YoY and inbound tourism bookings more than doubling, driven by strategic investments and favorable visa policies [4][5] - The company expects revenues of 61.4 billion, 68.5 billion, and 76.5 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with adjusted net profits of 18.7 billion, 21.8 billion, and 24.7 billion for the same years [7][10] Summary by Sections Q1 2025 Performance - Overall revenue reached 13.8 billion (YoY +16%), slightly above consensus estimates by 0.22% - Operating profit was 3.6 billion (margin of 26%), exceeding consensus by 7.34% - Adjusted net profit was 4.2 billion (YoY +3%), surpassing consensus by 8.99% [4] Business Segment Performance - Accommodation booking revenue was 5.5 billion (YoY +23%), above consensus by 1.39% - Transportation ticketing revenue was 5.4 billion (YoY +8%), slightly above consensus by 0.20% - Vacation business revenue was 0.9 billion (YoY +7%), below consensus by 5.90% - Business travel management revenue was 0.6 billion (YoY +12%), above consensus by 4.36% - Other business revenue was 1.4 billion (YoY +33%), slightly below consensus by 0.96% [4] International Business Growth - The overseas OTA platform's booking volume increased by 60% YoY, with inbound tourism bookings more than doubling, largely due to strategic positioning and visa policy benefits - Inbound tourist numbers surged by 40.2% YoY, with 75% of visitors from visa-free countries, particularly from South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia, where hotel orders increased by over 240% [4][5] Future Revenue and Profit Projections - Expected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 61.4 billion, 68.5 billion, and 76.5 billion respectively, with YoY growth rates of +15%, +12%, and +12% - Adjusted net profit projections for the same years are 18.7 billion, 21.8 billion, and 24.7 billion, with YoY growth rates of +3%, +16%, and +14% [7][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's Q4 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of 12.7 billion yuan (yoy +23.3%), operating profit of 2.3 billion yuan (margin of 18.1%), and Non-GAAP net profit of 3 billion yuan (yoy +14%) [4][5] - The company's international business continues to grow rapidly, driven by favorable visa policies, with outbound hotel and flight bookings increasing over 20% compared to the same period in 2019 [5] - The company has announced a new capital return plan, including a share repurchase program of up to 400 million USD and a cash dividend of approximately 200 million USD [6] Financial Performance Summary - For Q4, the revenue breakdown by business segment includes: - Accommodation booking revenue of 5.2 billion yuan (yoy +32.7%) - Transportation ticketing revenue of 4.8 billion yuan (yoy +16.4%) - Vacation business revenue of 870 million yuan (yoy +23.6%) - Business travel management revenue of 700 million yuan (yoy +10.7%) - Other business revenue of 1.2 billion yuan (yoy +24.9%) [4] - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 61.2 billion yuan, 68.5 billion yuan, and 76.7 billion yuan respectively, with expected year-on-year growth rates of +15%, +12%, and +12% [7] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same years are 18.6 billion yuan, 21.8 billion yuan, and 24.8 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of +3%, +17%, and +14% [7] Market Position and Trends - The company is experiencing strong recovery in travel demand, with cross-border flight recovery rates reaching 80% of 2019 levels, and European seat recovery rates at 96% [5] - The company anticipates continued growth in international travel demand due to the further opening of visa policies and ongoing recovery of international capacity [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's Q4 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching 12.7 billion yuan (up 23.3% year-over-year), operating profit at 2.3 billion yuan (margin of 18.1%), and Non-GAAP net profit at 3 billion yuan (up 14% year-over-year) [4][5] - The growth in international travel demand, driven by visa-free policies, has significantly boosted the company's performance, with outbound hotel and flight bookings increasing over 20% compared to the same period in 2019 [5] - The company has announced a new capital return plan, including a share repurchase program of up to 400 million USD and a cash dividend totaling approximately 200 million USD [6] Financial Performance Summary - For Q4, the revenue breakdown by business segment includes: - Accommodation booking revenue of 5.2 billion yuan (up 32.7% year-over-year) - Transportation ticketing revenue of 4.8 billion yuan (up 16.4% year-over-year) - Vacation package revenue of 870 million yuan (up 23.6% year-over-year) - Business travel management revenue of 700 million yuan (up 10.7% year-over-year) - Other business revenue of 1.2 billion yuan (up 24.9% year-over-year) [4] - The company expects revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 61.24 billion yuan, 68.53 billion yuan, and 76.68 billion yuan respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 15%, 12%, and 12% [7] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same years are 18.64 billion yuan, 21.76 billion yuan, and 24.78 billion yuan, with year-over-year growth rates of 3%, 17%, and 14% [7] Market Position and Outlook - The company is experiencing a strong recovery in travel demand, with cross-border flight recovery rates reaching 80% of 2019 levels, and European flight capacity recovery at 96% [5] - The anticipated continued growth in international travel demand is expected to further drive the company's performance in the coming years [5]