曾被全世界认可为最健康的公司，一度是"安全"的代名词，但只在短短48小时内，就变成了牵扯全球经济的定时炸弹。 在救还是不救之间，美联储面临了史上最难的一次抉择，搞明这家公司的崩塌过程，也许能提前感知到下一个可能倒下的行业巨头。 这家公司起源于上海，后来发展成了全美最大的保险企业——美国国际集团（AIG）。 在2008年前，AIG已经是美国最稳妥的公司之一，业务遍布140个国家和地区，总资产达1.2万亿美元，超过当年中国外汇储备的六成，像平安、国寿这些国 内品牌的规模都比不过它。 那一天，AIG的股价猛跌60%，信用评级也被调低，陷入了流动性危机，只能向纽约联储申请了300亿美元的紧急贷款。那会儿，整个美国只有美联储的下 属机构有能力出手救援。 9月15日7时10分，时任财长保尔森接到小布什总统的电话，明确表示政府不会再帮助华尔街的企业了。 这既是政府的态度，也符合民意，当时人们对金融巨头"盈利由自己享受，亏损由大家买单"的做法不满，而且正值美国大选期间，各政党都得考虑选票的因 素。 但AIG不同寻常，它可是美国金融体系的"核心"。 在2006年英超曼联的黄金时期，AIG每个赛季花费上千万英镑，把Logo印在曼 ...

Core Viewpoint - Increased political uncertainty in France has led investors to adopt a cautious approach, resulting in a rise in credit default swap prices for French banks [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Investors are increasingly worried about a new wave of political turmoil that may escalate in the coming weeks [1] - The 5-year credit default swap spread for BNP Paribas increased by 1 basis point to 43 basis points [1] - The 5-year credit default swap spread for Société Générale rose by 3 basis points to 49 basis points [1]

瑞银：全球 AI 支出增长强劲，需平衡半导体与软件股敞口 三井住友银行：日元强势难现，寿险公司调整海外投资策略 三井住友信托银行策略师指出，日元的实际利率太低，使得其强势表现的可能性减小。由于认为日元重 现历史性强势的可能性降低，日本寿险公司减少了防止日元升值带来损失的措施。日本央行的政策利率 比该国通胀率低3个百分点，导致市场对加息预期降温。这两大因素降低了日本投资者对海外债券的兴 趣，即使考虑外汇保护成本后，日本国债的复合收益率仍高于美国、英国、德国和澳大利亚等国家的同 类债券。日本财务省数据显示，寿险公司在特定期间内持续净抛售外国债券，同时在海外股票投资上也 出现了从买入到卖出的转变；如果美联储如掉期市场预测那样最早于9月开始降息，那么美元对冲成本 将随之下降，可能会促使寿险公司增加对冲需求，并影响外币兑日元汇率。 PIMCO投资组合经理预计，德国拥有更多财政空间，而其他欧洲国家需在预算中补偿国防开支上升。 欧洲整体财政政策在未来几年不太可能大幅扩张，反映出财政约束加剧背景下各国的不同应对能力。德 国10年期国债收益率将在2.5%至3.5%之间波动，假设欧洲央行政策利率维持在2%。德国10年期国债收 益 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of President Trump's tariff policy on the financial markets, leading to substantial losses and concerns about the stability of the financial system, prompting questions about the Federal Reserve's potential interventions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Concerns - The stock market experienced losses amounting to trillions of dollars following the introduction of new tariff policies, causing trading stagnation on Wall Street and prompting hedge funds to liquidate high-risk trades [1]. - Concerns are rising about the potential risks within the financial system due to the scale of the market disruptions, leading to discussions on what actions the Federal Reserve might take to stabilize the situation [2]. - The Bloomberg index indicates that U.S. financial conditions have deteriorated to their worst level since May 2020, reflecting increased financial pressure across various markets [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Potential Actions - The Federal Reserve is likely to intervene only when clear signs of market dysfunction appear, such as a freeze in capital flows, which could hinder trading activities [2][3]. - The Fed's decision-making is complicated by a resilient labor market and persistent inflation issues, which may limit its ability to lower interest rates or take actions that could further increase prices [3]. - Historical instances of Federal Reserve interventions highlight the need for a proactive approach in times of market distress, as seen in past crises [6]. Group 3: Historical Context of Federal Reserve Interventions - The article outlines five significant instances where the Federal Reserve intervened in the financial markets, including the 1998 hedge fund crisis, the 2001 economic turmoil post-9/11, the 2007-08 global financial crisis, the 2020 pandemic response, and the 2023 regional banking crisis [6][7][11][14][18][21]. - Each instance illustrates the Fed's role in providing liquidity and stabilizing markets during periods of extreme financial stress, emphasizing the importance of timely intervention [7][11][14][18][21].