基于国产 56.70 GPU的一体机百花齐放，2025年将是国 产AI一体机应用元年；算力大跌后这两个方向值 得关注——0302脱水研报 2025/03/02 18:25 【本文来自持牌证券机构，不代表平台观点，请独立判断和决策】 今日研报内容： 【本文来自持牌证券机构，不代表平台观点，请独立判断和决策】 摘要： 1、一体机：2月28日，中国移动拿下海外DeepSeek一体机私有化部署第一单。民生证券指 出，2025年将是国产AI一体机应用元年，目前多家公司已开发DeepSeek一体机，同时基于国 产GPU的一体机市场也在百花齐放，产业链有望持续放量。 2、算力：国盛证券认为，本次算力回落主要受全球宏观经济对高风险资产的冲击，叠加 GPT4.5不及预期，多方面因素形成共振导致短期跌幅较大。但算力需求释放的逻辑仍未发生 动摇，海外需要突破性创新撬动算力需求，国内AI产业起步较晚，基数较低，主要应关注算 力产业链边际变化。 相关个股 3、化肥：国信证券研报指出，磷化工以磷矿石为起点，当前下游以农化制品为主，具有刚需 属性，近几年含磷新能源材料等新应用领域不断扩展，但国内磷矿石因多年无序开采面临品 位下降问题，新增 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights China's dominance in the global AI market, with Chinese models accounting for 61% of the total token volume, which amounts to 5.3 trillion tokens out of 8.7 trillion globally, marking a significant shift from being a follower to a leader in AI technology [1][2]. Group 1: Token as Digital Power - Tokens are described as the universal currency of the AI era, representing a new form of digital energy that allows for cross-border value delivery without physical logistics [2]. - The cost structure of AI services heavily relies on electricity and computing power, which together account for over 70% of the costs, benefiting from China's low-cost green energy and large-scale computing clusters [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Pricing Structure - A significant price increase in cloud services has been observed, with companies like UCloud raising prices across the board and AWS breaking a two-decade trend of price reductions with a 15% increase, indicating a shift in the supply-demand balance [3]. - The competitive edge of Chinese models is attributed to their cost efficiency and engineering capabilities, leading to a global preference for Chinese AI solutions [3]. Group 3: Industry Ecosystem and Key Players - Key players in the ecosystem include: - **Zhipu AI**: A core supplier of computing power, expanding GPU clusters to meet increasing demand [3]. - **ByteDance**: Known for its elastic computing capabilities, supporting large-scale token processing [4]. - **Ascend**: Focused on domestic computing infrastructure, benefiting from the rise of token exports [5]. - **Edge and Transmission**: Companies like Shunwang Technology and Wangsu Technology are positioned as critical channels for AI traffic, enhancing the efficiency of token computation [6]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The article suggests that while there may be short-term market fluctuations, the long-term outlook remains positive, with China's global market share expected to grow beyond the current 61% due to its cost and technological advantages [7]. - The demand for computing power is projected to increase exponentially, with token consumption per user potentially rising by 10-50 times as multi-modal AI applications become more prevalent [8]. - The pricing power in the cloud computing sector is shifting, with Chinese computing resources transitioning from a cost advantage to a value premium, indicating a significant opportunity for revenue generation in the global market [9].

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant growth and opportunities within the semiconductor industry, particularly focusing on companies that are integral to the Huawei HiSilicon ecosystem, which is experiencing a surge in demand for advanced chips and related technologies. Group 1: Key Companies and Their Roles - Longi Technology (600584) is a global leader in packaging and testing, uniquely handling the 4nm Chiplet packaging for Huawei's Kirin X90 chip, which enhances chip performance by three times. The new automotive-grade chip factory is expected to contribute 5 billion yuan in annual revenue, solidifying its dominance in advanced packaging [1]. - Tuo Wei Information (002261) is a major player in the AI server market with over 30% market share, deeply involved in Huawei's AI innovation centers across key sectors. The company has server orders booked until Q1 2026, indicating strong revenue visibility [2]. - Shenzhen Huaqiang (000062) serves as a key distributor for Huawei's entire product line, with a 120% year-on-year increase in sales of the Ascend 910B chip. The company is positioned to benefit from the explosive growth in Huawei's chip shipments [3]. - Chipone Technology (688521) provides essential IP cores for Huawei's Kirin and Ascend AI chips, contributing an estimated 1.5 billion yuan to revenue in 2025, which is over 30% of its total revenue [4]. - Tongfu Microelectronics (002156) is a primary packaging and testing provider for Ascend chips, with a projected 50% growth in AI packaging orders by 2025, benefiting from the mass production of Huawei's Chiplet architecture [5]. Group 2: Emerging Technologies and Market Trends - Runhe Software (300339) is a dual ecosystem partner for HarmonyOS and HiSilicon, with over 40% market share in smart terminal OS adaptation. The company is leveraging its collaboration with Huawei to enhance its product offerings in smart home and vehicle networking [6]. - Zhongke Chuangda (300496) is a core player in automotive-grade solutions, providing algorithm optimization for Huawei's AI chips, with a 61.54% market share in global in-car infotainment systems [7]. - North Huachuang (002371) is a leading equipment supplier for semiconductor manufacturing, providing critical etching and ALD equipment, with 35% of its products compatible with 5nm technology [8]. - Huazheng New Materials (603186) has developed a breakthrough material that replaces traditional substrates, achieving a 45% annual growth in semiconductor materials revenue [9]. - Liyuan Information (300184) has been a long-time agent for Huawei's chips, with a projected net profit increase of 43%-65% in Q1 2025, benefiting from the growing demand in IoT and industrial control sectors [10]. Group 3: Strategic Collaborations and Future Prospects - Skyworth Digital (000810) is a pioneer in implementing Huawei's StarFlash technology, significantly reducing latency in smart home devices, with a projected 200% growth in related orders by 2025 [11]. - Megmeet (002881) is a benchmark partner for Huawei's 5G modules, with a 217% increase in revenue from the new energy vehicle sector, indicating strong growth potential in the 5G and vehicle networking markets [12]. - Guangdian Yuntong (002152) is a leader in financial technology solutions based on Huawei's Ascend chips, with a revenue visibility of 1 billion yuan for 2025, focusing on digital transformation in finance [13]. - Jing Sai Technology is a core supplier of crystal oscillators for Huawei's 5G base station chips, with a 15% revenue contribution from the new energy vehicle sector [14]. - Feirongda (300602) specializes in thermal management solutions for Huawei's chips, with a projected 120% growth in automotive business revenue in 2024 [15].

Core Insights - Huawei's HarmonyOS is set to achieve full autonomy by 2025, with over 1.19 billion devices equipped with the system [1] - In the consumer electronics sector, Huawei's smartphone market share in China has reached 25%, with foldable models accounting for 18% [1] - The report identifies five key companies with significant technological advantages and performance elasticity in the HarmonyOS and consumer electronics space [1] Company Summaries 1. Broadcom Integration - Core Positioning: Key supplier of HarmonyOS RF chips [3] - Technological Barriers: First global Wi-Fi 6 IoT chip supporting StarFlash technology, with a domestic substitution rate increasing from 35% to 60% [3] - Market Performance: Net profit in Q1 2025 increased by 910.55%, with HarmonyOS revenue exceeding 30% [3] 2. Chenyi Intelligent - Core Positioning: Leader in HarmonyOS smart interaction hardware [4] - Technological Barriers: Only company in China with full-process R&D capability for HarmonyOS smart remote controls [4] - Market Performance: Q2 2025 shipment volume grew by 210%, with Huawei orders making up 65% [4] 3. Guoguang Electric - Core Positioning: Leader in HarmonyOS acoustic hardware [5] - Technological Barriers: First acoustic module certified by HarmonyOS, integrating AI voice interaction and spatial audio technology [6] - Market Performance: Q1 2025 revenue increased by 42%, with Huawei orders rising to 58% [8] 4. Zhuoyue Technology - Core Positioning: Benchmark for HarmonyOS terminal manufacturing [10] - Technological Barriers: Core manufacturer for Huawei's Mate 70 series, achieving a yield rate of 99.2% [10] - Market Performance: Q2 2025 net profit surged by 1046.17%, with HarmonyOS revenue exceeding 70% [12] 5. Zhiwei Intelligent - Core Positioning: Builder of the HarmonyOS PC ecosystem [14] - Technological Barriers: Developer of the first distributed operating system for X86 architecture based on HarmonyOS [14] - Market Performance: Q1 2025 net profit increased by 979.75%, with a provincial government cloud project exceeding 500 million [16]

Market Overview - On August 25, A-shares experienced a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.51% and approaching 3900 points, while total trading volume reached 3.14 trillion yuan, marking the second-highest in history [1] - Over 3350 stocks rose, with 92 stocks hitting the daily limit, led by sectors such as rare earths and computing power [1] Hot Stocks - The top ten popular stocks included Lingyi Zhi Zao, Huasheng Tiancheng, Northern Rare Earth, He Er Tai, China Satellite, Tuo Wei Information, Cambricon-U, Zhongke Shuguang, Baogang Co., and Dongfang Precision [2] Key Drivers for Stock Performance - **Lingyi Zhi Zao**: The stock's rise is driven by multiple favorable events, including a profit forecast increase of 32%-67% for the 2025 mid-year report and the approval of a major acquisition to expand into the automotive parts business. The company's strategic focus on robotics and advancements in AI hardware align with current market trends [3] - **Huasheng Tiancheng**: The stock benefits from its status as a Huawei Ascend ecosystem partner, leading to a surge in demand for domestic computing power. The company reported a profit increase of 148.59%-172.88% for the mid-year report, supported by continuous net inflows of capital [3] - **Northern Rare Earth**: The stock is positively impacted by policy changes and increased demand in the industry, with a projected profit increase of 18-20 times for the first half of 2025 due to rising prices of rare earth materials [4] - **He Er Tai**: The stock's popularity stems from a 19.21% revenue growth and a 78.65% profit increase for the first half of 2025, alongside strategic partnerships with major automotive companies [4] - **China Satellite**: The stock is gaining attention due to the upcoming issuance of satellite internet licenses, with a projected profit increase of 89% for 2025, benefiting from advancements in low-orbit satellite networks [4] - **Tuo Wei Information**: The stock's performance is linked to its strategic partnership with Huawei and the ongoing development of AI computing power, despite a revenue decline [5] - **Cambricon-U**: The stock is experiencing a boost from a significant target price increase by Goldman Sachs and expectations of growth in cloud computing and chip diversification [5] - **Zhongke Shuguang, Baogang Co., and Dongfang Precision**: These stocks are also benefiting from favorable industry policies, improved performance, and technological advancements [5]

Group 1 - Huawei is set to release its HarmonyOS-based Hongmeng computer in May 2025, developed by over 10,000 engineers and integrating more than 2,700 core patents, which is expected to complete the Harmony ecosystem [1] - The upgrade of the AITO MX series in 2024 led to a 300% increase in revenue for Seres [2] - As Huawei's sole strategic partner for "Kunpeng/Ai+Open Source Harmony," Tuowei Information's performance and development have become a focal point in the industry [3] Group 2 - Tuowei Information's net profit surged by 980% in Q1 2025, surprising the market [5] - Despite the revenue increase over the past three years, Tuowei Information's net profit had been hovering near the loss margin, with a loss of 100 million yuan in 2024 [6] - The significant increase in net profit for Q1 2025 was largely due to a 20,425% increase in fair value changes from shareholder performance compensation, indicating that operational improvements were not the driving factor [7] Group 3 - Tuowei Information's gross margin has declined from 41.55% in 2020 to 13.95% in 2024, indicating a decrease in market competitiveness [11] - The company's cash flow situation remains concerning, with accounts receivable increasing from 484 million yuan in 2020 to 1.248 billion yuan by Q1 2025, leading to a receivable turnover period of 179.49 days [13] - The reliance on Huawei has resulted in a significant portion of Tuowei's revenue being tied to a few clients, with Huawei accounting for 25.60% of total sales [25] Group 4 - Tuowei Information's main business, smart computing, has a gross margin of only 6.76%, primarily due to the nature of its operations as a contract manufacturer for Huawei [22][24] - The company's R&D expense ratio has decreased from 9.47% in 2020 to 4.61% in 2024, which may hinder its technological advancement [27] - Despite challenges, Tuowei Information has secured significant contracts, such as a 19.058 billion yuan order from China Mobile in August 2024, indicating potential growth opportunities [30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, indicating an expected relative increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next 12 months [4][7]. Core Insights - 2025 is projected to be the year of application for domestic AI integrated machines, with significant developments in the deployment of DeepSeek solutions by China Mobile in the financial services sector [1]. - Multiple companies are developing DeepSeek integrated machines, enhancing the domestic AI ecosystem and breaking the reliance on NVIDIA's CUDA ecosystem through collaborations with various domestic chip manufacturers [2]. - The report outlines a comprehensive list of companies involved in the domestic AI integrated machine supply chain, highlighting potential investment opportunities [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - China Mobile successfully deployed the first self-developed AI project using DeepSeek in the Asia-Pacific region, marking a significant milestone for domestic AI applications [1]. - The introduction of new DeepSeek integrated machines by companies like Shanghai Haixi Technology and Huawei emphasizes the growing competition and innovation in the market [2]. Market Dynamics - At least 20 domestic chip manufacturers have announced partnerships with DeepSeek, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the domestic AI integrated machine market [2]. - The report highlights the advantages of domestic AI models combined with local AI chips, fostering the development of a "domestic computing power + domestic large model" ecosystem [2]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies key players in the domestic AI integrated machine industry, including He Sheng New Materials, Hengwei Technology, and others, suggesting a diversified investment landscape [3].