广发证券 资深宏观分析师 贺骁束 hexiaoshu@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 11月生意社BPI延续回暖。产业"叙事"仍在延续，叠加美联储降息预期下旬升温，有色金属延续上 涨，贵金属中白银领涨。截至11月28日，生意社BPI指数录得878点，相较10月末环比回升1.0%。其中能 源、有色指数（月环比）分别为0.4%、2.7%。 第二， 11月内盘定价大宗商品涨跌互现。其中动力煤现货价格、玻璃期货价涨幅靠前，月环比涨幅分别录得 7.0%、7.6%；螺纹钢期货价格环比回落0.6%；化工产品、水泥价格指数、焦煤期货价相对偏弱，月环比分 别录得-0.1%、-1.0%、-18.3%。水泥价格最后一周有企稳好转迹象。南华综合指数期末值环比小幅收 涨，月均值同比录得0.2%（前值-0.3%）。 第三， 四大一线城市房价延续调整。截至11月17日（最新数据），四大一线城市二手房挂牌价格指数相较 10月最后一周环比录得-0.7%、-1.2%、-1.5%、-1.5% 。 第四， 存储芯片、碳酸锂等新兴制造业上游价格偏强，光伏产业价格走低。11月光伏行业综合指数（SPI） 环比回落2.6%（前值-0. ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the escalating tensions between the United States and China, particularly focusing on Trump's urgent communications regarding the potential consequences of the ongoing tariff war, suggesting that a loss could lead to the U.S. becoming a "third-rate country" [1][4][5]. Group 1: Tariff War Dynamics - The tariff conflict began in April when the U.S. imposed a 34% tariff on all goods from China, prompting a swift and strong retaliatory response from China [7]. - Trump's expectation of negotiations was thwarted by China's immediate and firm countermeasures, which matched the tariff amounts imposed by the U.S. [7]. - China's response included a temporary suspension of a 24% tariff on U.S. goods for 90 days while maintaining a 10% tariff, showcasing a strategic and flexible diplomatic approach [7]. Group 2: China's Institutional Advantages - China's ability to withstand U.S. pressure is attributed to its unique institutional advantages, including a long-term planning system that ensures strategic continuity [9]. - The country has established comprehensive mid- to long-term technology development plans, which are crucial for addressing weaknesses and enhancing strengths in key sectors [9]. Group 3: Global Cooperation and Economic Resilience - Amid U.S. unilateralism, China is actively promoting international cooperation, exemplified by a significant tripartite summit with ASEAN and the Gulf Cooperation Council [10][12]. - China's manufacturing sector demonstrates remarkable resilience, accounting for 31.6% of global manufacturing output, with significant advancements in robotics and renewable energy [13]. - The country is transitioning from a manufacturing powerhouse to a manufacturing stronghold, driven by sustained technological innovation and industrial upgrades [13]. Group 4: Talent and Cultural Resilience - China's innovation capacity is bolstered by a vast talent pool, with 22 million individuals in the workforce and over 5 million STEM graduates annually, leading the world in research and development personnel [15]. - The enduring nature of Chinese civilization contributes to a collective resilience against external pressures, as evidenced by the unified response to challenges such as supply chain disruptions [17].

Core Insights - The Sichuan Provincial Natural Resources Department announced significant progress in ecological protection and restoration projects, including the completion of 232,500 hectares of integrated protection and restoration in the Yellow River upstream region and 1,083.17 hectares of ecological restoration in the Giant Panda National Park [1][2] Group 1: Ecological Restoration Achievements - The ecological restoration projects have led to a notable increase in water source conservation capacity, with the sediment concentration in the Yellow River in Aba Prefecture decreasing from 1.4 kg/m³ to 0.3 kg/m³ [1] - Biodiversity maintenance has improved, with populations of rare wildlife such as the black-necked crane and white-tailed eagle continuing to expand [1] - Environmental quality has enhanced, with Aba Prefecture ranking first in the province and among the top five nationally for air quality, and all 28 monitored water quality sections meeting Class II standards or above [1] Group 2: Economic and Social Benefits - The ecological restoration has led to the optimization of agricultural industry structures, boosting livestock and labor income, with per capita disposable income for farmers and herders reaching 19,448 yuan, a 7% year-on-year increase [2] - Public satisfaction regarding ecological civilization construction has exceeded 95%, with ecological compensation totaling 291 million yuan and ecological public welfare job subsidies amounting to 149 million yuan [2] - The ecological value has been effectively converted, accelerating the development of photovoltaic, cultural tourism, and ecological industries [2] Group 3: Mining Ecological Restoration - A total of 103 abandoned mines have been restored, and 56 geological hazard points have been eliminated [2] - The restoration projects are designed based on three types of mines (marble, granite, and asbestos) and are structured across national, regional, and local levels, focusing on ecological, safety, and landscape dimensions [2] Group 4: Strategic Importance of Sichuan - Sichuan is positioned as a crucial ecological barrier in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the Loess Plateau, serving as an important water source for both the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers, thus playing a vital role in the national ecological security strategy [4] - The province has consistently emphasized its "upstream awareness" and responsibility, focusing on implementing major ecological protection and restoration projects [4]