"确定性"多点开花，业绩估值各有看点 [Table_Industry] 交通运输 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 7 月 7 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 | [Table_ReportType] | | --- | | 行业投资策略 | | [Table_StockAndRank] 交通运输 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | [Table_Author] 匡培钦 交通运输行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524070004 邮 箱：kuangpeiqin@cindasc.com 黄安 交通运输行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524110001 邮 箱：huangan@cindasc.com 秦梦鸽 交通运输行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524110002 邮 箱：qinmengge@cindasc.com 陈依晗 交通运输行业助理 邮 箱：chenyihan@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Ta ...

伊朗民航组织发言人当地时间15日下午表示，伊朗领空将关闭至16日凌晨2时，他呼吁公众和乘客仅从 当地民航部门渠道了解航班信息。据伊朗塔斯尼姆通讯社当天援引政府发言人的消息，伊朗当地的客运 将通过铁路和公路运输，且当地药品、食品、燃料及生活必需品等货物运输没有问题。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation sector, with specific buy recommendations for several airlines and logistics companies [2][3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing recovery in the aviation sector, driven by increasing passenger demand and favorable pricing dynamics, particularly during the peak travel season [4][5]. - The logistics and express delivery sectors are expected to undergo significant transformation due to advancements in autonomous vehicle technology, which could enhance operational efficiency and service delivery [5][6]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report highlights the strong performance of airlines such as Spring Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines, which are expected to benefit from rising passenger volumes and improved load factors [2][11]. - The logistics sector is seeing a surge in express delivery volumes, with a reported 41.47 billion packages collected in the week of May 19-25, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.42% [5][6]. Operational Tracking - The report provides detailed operational metrics for major airlines, indicating a positive trend in available seat kilometers (ASK) and revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) across the sector, with notable increases in passenger load factors [4][14]. - The logistics sector's performance is also tracked, showing a significant increase in both collection and delivery volumes, which are expected to continue growing due to favorable consumption policies [5][6]. Airline Data Tracking - Specific airlines are highlighted for their operational efficiency and market positioning, with metrics showing improvements in ASK and RPK, alongside rising load factors, indicating a robust recovery trajectory [4][14]. - The report notes that the average load factor for major airlines is above 80%, suggesting strong demand and effective capacity management [4][14]. Shipping Data Tracking - The report indicates a rise in shipping rates, with the SCFI index reaching 2072.71 points, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 30.68% [5][6]. - The report anticipates a seasonal increase in shipping demand, driven by factors such as replenishment needs and peak shipping seasons, which could lead to further price increases [5][6]. Logistics Data Tracking - The report tracks logistics performance, noting a significant increase in freight volumes across various transport modes, including road and rail, with a cumulative freight volume of 2.71 billion tons reported [5][6]. - The express delivery sector is highlighted for its resilience, with ongoing growth in package volumes supported by government consumption-boosting policies [5][6].

交运整体稳健，看好物流发展 [Table_Industry] 交运 24 年度复盘及 25Q1 总结 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 9 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业专题研究（深度） | [Table_StockAndRank] 交通运输 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | [Table_Author] 匡培钦 交运行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524070004 邮 箱：kuangpeiqin@cindasc.com 黄安 交运行业分析师 秦梦鸽 交运行业分析师 陈依晗 交运行业研究助理 邮 箱：chenyihan@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 交运 24 年度复盘及 25Q1 总结：交运整体稳 健，看好物流发展 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 9 日 [Table_S [➢Table_S ...

华泰证券研报指出，展望5月，推荐供需改善的航空、运价有望抬升的油运、在红利板块中具备业绩优 势的公路以及部分业绩稳健的个股：1)航空：中期看好供给放缓带来的潜在盈利弹性，暑运旺季或催化 行情；2)油运：OPEC+增产有望提振5月运价；3)公路：一季度业绩稳健，在红利板块中具有比较优 势。避险情绪与利率均支撑红利估值，建议参与分红填权行情。 NO.2中金公司：中期维度下，政策有望刺激高端白酒需求企稳 中金公司（601995）研报认为，1)当前白酒需求景气度已处历史底部(过去五年景气度分位数28%)，向 下风险或有限。2)政策较宽松为消费回暖提供基础，1—3月份经济数据已有表现，预计更多托底政策出 台将助力白酒需求稳步筑底回升。3)未来白酒需求或以较慢斜率小幅回升，从消费场景看，短期大众需 求偏刚性，且同期低基数下，宴席需求或有望有所表现；中期维度下，政策刺激有望刺激高端白酒需求 企稳。全年白酒业绩在三四季度低基数支撑下或呈先抑后扬的走势。 NO.3中国银河（601881）证券：继续看好银行板块配置价值 ｜2025年5月9日星期五｜ NO.1华泰证券：交运板块关注航空、油运、公路 中国银河证券指出，一揽子金融政策 ...