Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 36.25 [6][7]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated strong profit performance with a total revenue of RMB 61.93 billion and a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 7.2 billion for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.4% in revenue but a decrease of 4.4% in net profit [1][2]. - The liquid milk business showed stability despite a 2.1% decline in revenue, while the milk powder and dairy products segment grew by 14.3%, indicating competitive strength in the industry [1][2]. - The company effectively managed inventory levels, positioning itself well for the upcoming peak sales periods during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported total revenues of RMB 61.93 billion, with a net profit of RMB 7.2 billion, and a non-recurring net profit of RMB 7.02 billion, showing a year-on-year change of +3.4%, -4.4%, and +31.8% respectively [1]. - The gross profit margin improved by 1.3 percentage points to 36.0% in the first half of 2025, driven by a higher proportion of revenue from high-margin milk powder and dairy products [3]. Business Segments - The liquid milk segment generated RMB 36.13 billion in revenue, down 2.1% year-on-year, while the milk powder and dairy products segment achieved RMB 16.58 billion, up 14.3% [2]. - The cold drink business showed recovery with a 12.4% increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, indicating a positive trend following previous channel adjustments [2]. Profitability and Forecast - The report anticipates a slight adjustment in revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting revenues of RMB 119.32 billion, RMB 123.52 billion, and RMB 127.39 billion respectively, reflecting a minor decrease from previous estimates [4]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected at RMB 1.81, RMB 1.99, and RMB 2.14, with a reference price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 20x for 2025 [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company achieved a revenue of 115.78 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.24%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.45 billion yuan, down 18.94% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue increase of 1.35% year-on-year to 33.02 billion yuan, with a net profit of 4.87 billion yuan, down 17.71% year-on-year [2][4] - The company is expected to see a recovery in performance, driven by a rebound in demand for dairy products and cost reduction efforts. The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 1.67, 1.83, and 1.99 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 18X, 16X, and 15X [5] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 115.78 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -8.24%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.45 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 18.94%. The gross profit margin was 34.1% [6] - For 2025, the expected total revenue is 119.20 billion yuan, with a projected growth rate of 3.0%. The net profit is anticipated to be 10.64 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 25.9% [6] - The company plans to distribute dividends of 7.726 billion yuan in 2024, with a payout ratio of 91.4%, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.08% based on the latest closing price [4]

证券研究报告 伊利股份 (600887 CH) 25Q1 业绩大超预期,毛销差明显提振 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 30 日│中国内地 | 食品 | 24 年收入 / 归 母 净 利 / 扣非净利 1157.8/84.5/60.1 亿，同比 -8.2%/-18.9%/-40.0%；24Q4 收入/归母净利/扣非净利 267.4/-24.2/-25.0 亿， 同比-7.1%/转亏/转亏；25Q1 收入/归母净利/扣非净利 330.2/48.7/46.3 亿， 同比+1.4%/-17.7%/+24.2%，业绩大超预期（我们前瞻预计 25Q1 收入同比 -6%，扣非净利同比-3%）。24Q3 末公司液奶业务渠道调整结束、24Q4 以 来轻装上阵，25Q1 公司液奶收入保持平稳；公司婴配粉业务具备竞争力， 25Q1 经营向好，婴配粉业务增势较好；冷饮业务 25Q1 收入仍有小幅下滑， 但渠道库存调整已基本结束，25 年旺季有望开启正增。利润端，25Q1 毛销 差同比+3.3pct，盈利能力明显提振。25 年公司计划实现营 ...

2025 年 04 月 30 日 顾向君 H70420@capitalcom.tw 目标价(元) 34 公司基本资讯 | 产业别 | | 食品饮料 | | --- | --- | --- | | A 股价(2025/4/29) | | 28.79 | | 上证指数(2025/4/29) | | 3286.65 | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | | 31.96/21.13 | | 总发行股数(百万) | | 6365.90 | | A 股数(百万) | | 6334.47 | | A 市值(亿元) | | 1823.69 | | 主要股东 | | 香港中央结算 | | | | 有限公司 | | | | (10.23%) | | 每股净值(元) | | 9.16 | | 股价/账面净值 | | 3.14 | | | 一个月 三个月 | 一年 | | 股价涨跌(%) | 2.5 | 6.4 7.3 | C o m p a n y U p d a t e C h i n a R e s e a r c h D e p t . 伊利股份(600887.SH) BUY 买进 大额减值影响 2024 年盈利，25Q1 扣 ...

顾向君 H70420@capitalcom.tw 目标价(元) 34 公司基本资讯 | 产业别 | | 食品饮料 | | --- | --- | --- | | A 股价(2025/4/29) | | 28.79 | | 上证指数(2025/4/29) | | 3286.65 | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | | 31.96/21.13 | | 总发行股数(百万) | | 6365.90 | | A 股数(百万) | | 6334.47 | | A 市值(亿元) | | 1823.69 | | 主要股东 | | 香港中央结算 | | | | 有限公司 | | | | (10.23%) | | 每股净值(元) | | 9.16 | | 股价/账面净值 | | 3.14 | | | 一个月 三个月 | 一年 | | 股价涨跌(%) | 2.5 6.4 | 7.3 | 近期评等 | 出刊日期 | 前日收盘 | 评等 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2024-10-31 | 26.44 | 买进 | | 2024-08-30 | 22.87 | 买进 | | 2024-04-30 | 28.29 | ...

2025 年 04 月 30 日 顾向君 H70420@capitalcom.tw 目标价(元) 34 公司基本资讯 | 产业别 | | 食品饮料 | | --- | --- | --- | | A 股价(2025/4/29) | | 28.79 | | 上证指数(2025/4/29) | | 3286.65 | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | | 31.96/21.13 | | 总发行股数(百万) | | 6365.90 | | A 股数(百万) | | 6334.47 | | A 市值(亿元) | | 1823.69 | | 主要股东 | | 香港中央结算 | | | | 有限公司 | | | | (10.23%) | | 每股净值(元) | | 9.16 | | 股价/账面净值 | | 3.14 | | | 一个月 三个月 | 一年 | | 股价涨跌(%) | 2.5 6.4 | 7.3 | 近期评等 | 出刊日期 | 前日收盘 | 评等 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2024-10-31 | 26.44 | 买进 | | 2024-08-30 | 22.87 | 买进 | | 202 ...

2025 年 04 月 30 日 顾向君 H70420@capitalcom.tw 目标价(元) 34 公司基本资讯 | 产业别 | | 食品饮料 | | --- | --- | --- | | A 股价(2025/4/29) | | 28.79 | | 上证指数(2025/4/29) | | 3286.65 | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | | 31.96/21.13 | | 总发行股数(百万) | | 6365.90 | | A 股数(百万) | | 6334.47 | | A 市值(亿元) | | 1823.69 | | 主要股东 | | 香港中央结算 | | | | 有限公司 | | | | (10.23%) | | 每股净值(元) | | 9.16 | | 股价/账面净值 | | 3.14 | | | 一个月 三个月 | 一年 | | 股价涨跌(%) | 2.5 | 6.4 7.3 | 近期评等 C o m p a n y U p d a t e C h i n a R e s e a r c h D e p t . | 出刊日期 | 前日收盘 | 评等 | | --- | --- | --- | ...