12月26日，随着一声汽笛长鸣，一列由88个集装箱组成，满载2500吨氧化铝的陆海新通道货运班列 从防城港市东湾物流园区集装箱办理站缓缓驶出，标志着西部陆海新通道（广西防城港—重庆綦江）货 运班列正式开通运行。 本次班列的开通，是深化两地务实合作的重要一步。这不仅是两座城市之间的物流联通，更是"沿 海门户"与"内陆枢纽"的深度协同。（杨康 李明云） 该班列由重庆国际物流集团协同陆海新通道运营有限公司组织发运，货物为广西华昇新材料有限公 司生产的氧化铝，其原材料为经海运抵达防城港的几内亚铝土矿。通过铁路"点对点"专列运输，预计48 小时左右可抵达重庆市綦江北站。这条"港口—铁路—工厂"的直达通道，不仅大幅缩短了物流周期、降 低了企业运输成本，更打通了西部地区面向东盟与非洲的国际原材料供应通道，为重庆新能源车等下游 制造业提供稳定可靠的铝材原料保障。 ...

（来源：紫金天风期货研究所） 来源：紫金天风期货研究所 【20251226】【氧化铝年报】釜中之鱼 核心观点 2.月间：跟随仓单注册、注销周期，阶段性布局正套、反套头寸； 3.期权：盘面击穿成本后分批布局虚值卖看跌期权，同时关注盘面短期炒作带来的高位卖看涨机 会。 短期：跌到何时为止？ 氧化铝期货不只有现货的成本定价逻辑 对于过剩品种，如何判断底部位置？市场共识是遵循成本定价原则。但期货不是现货，除了成本 逻辑之外，还有仓单逻辑。 回顾历史，氧化铝的基差收敛主要通过两种路径实现：一是期现货价格双向靠拢，例如2025年5月 至7月的"反内卷"时期，下行现货与情绪驱动的上行盘面共同拉近基差；二是同方向变化，但其中 一个加速收敛。如2024年12月至2025年2月，期货现货双跌，盘面跌幅远超现货，以快速下跌完成 收敛。 当前盘面价格甚至已经Price in几内亚矿价65美金/吨对应的边际成本，市场疑惑盘面何时彻底反 转？当前盘面的底部已经不是交易"矿价跌到多少"，而是交易"仓单何时消化完毕"。我们应注 意，仓单时隔大半年再次来历史高位区间，此时成本逻辑暂时退居其次，仓单逻辑开始主导盘面 定价。当前盘面基差来到高位区 ...

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide market is experiencing fluctuations in prices and supply dynamics, with a notable focus on Guinea's aluminum oxide company asset inspections and the overall supply-demand balance in the industry [2][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - On July 16, the main aluminum oxide futures contract closed at 3111.0 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 1.58% [1]. - The national average spot price for aluminum oxide was reported at 3191 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 5 CNY/ton, while the discount was 99 CNY/ton [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Guinea's aluminum oxide company (GAC) has initiated a comprehensive asset inventory, with government oversight on strategic mining equipment [2]. - The current supply situation remains generally loose, despite localized tightness providing some support for spot prices [3]. - The production capacity of aluminum oxide is steadily increasing, primarily due to the resumption of operations after maintenance, leading to record-high output levels [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Recommendations - According to Wenguang Futures, there is a mid-term expectation for a price increase, driven by a strong market sentiment and low registered warehouse receipts for aluminum oxide. However, the overcapacity issue persists, anchoring prices to production costs [3]. - Newhu Futures suggests that while there is some upward pressure on prices due to localized supply tightness, the overall expectation of supply surplus remains unchanged, with new production capacity expected in the third quarter [3].

Group 1 - The cross-regional allocation policy allows businesses to stock goods in bonded warehouses at ports and adjust inventory based on local store demands, enhancing supply chain efficiency [1] - Qingdao Customs has actively promoted the "Yellow River Basin Customs Trade Smart Platform" to support the establishment of a cross-border e-commerce industry cooperation mechanism covering 11 regions, enhancing the development of the e-commerce industry in the basin [1] - The foreign trade vessel carrying 220,000 tons of bauxite from Guinea docked at Yantai Port, showcasing the port's capability to handle large volumes of imports and exports [1] Group 2 - The demand for construction machinery in Africa has significantly increased, with Yantai Port leveraging its logistics advantages to facilitate exports of engineering machinery and basic equipment from the Yellow River Basin [2] - Yantai Port has established a monthly average of 10 direct shipping routes to 20 African countries, achieving full coverage of coastal nations in Africa [2] - Qingdao Customs has introduced a new regulatory model for miscellaneous goods, reducing inspection times by 2 to 3 days per vessel [2] Group 3 - Since the Yellow River Basin's high-quality development became a national strategy, Qingdao Customs has coordinated efforts to enhance trade and connectivity, resulting in a year-on-year increase of 8.8% in imports and exports for the first four months of the year [3] - The provinces of Shandong, Sichuan, and others have shown significant growth in trade, with some achieving double-digit increases [3] - Exports to countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative accounted for 58.3% of the total, with notable growth in machinery and agricultural products [3]