12月8日算力板块表现强势，延续前期上涨势头，创业板人工智能ETF（159388）收涨5.51%，通信ETF（515880）收涨5.49%。 资料来源：wind 事件方面，谷歌全栈AI生态持续发酵。谷歌加速了产业链进展，谷歌TPU的出货量预期持续上调。谷歌的成长，不仅在硬件侧带来更多的 计算芯片出货增量，而且在模型、应用等方面极大推动了产业成长。随着大模型持续不断迭代跃进，巨头的AI军备竞赛持续，必然会拉动 整体算力需求的进一步增长（无论NVGPU还是谷歌TPU）。A股光模块、服务器等厂商"卖铲人"逻辑较强，不管在芯片端的竞争中时谁获 胜，板块都将受益。 投资人应当充分了解基金定期定额投资和零存整取等储蓄方式的区别。定期定额投资是引导投资人进行长期投资、平均投资成本的一种简 单易行的投资方式。但是定期定额投资并不能规避基金投资所固有的风险，不能保证投资人获得收益，也不是替代储蓄的等效理财方式。 无论是股票ETF/LOF基金，都是属于较高预期风险和预期收益的证券投资基金品种，其预期收益及预期风险水平高于混合型基金、债券型 基金和货币市场基金。 基金资产投资于科创板和创业板股票，会面临因投资标的、市场制度以及交易 ...

Core Viewpoint - The AI infrastructure capital expenditure is expected to drive significant growth in the sector, with major cloud providers projected to increase their capital spending substantially in the coming years [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The computing sector continued its upward trend on December 1, with the Communication ETF (515880) rising by 2.84% and the ChiNext AI ETF (159388) increasing by 2.45% [1]. - The anticipated capital expenditure for the four major U.S. cloud providers (Google, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon) is projected to reach $367 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 59%, with a further increase to $495 billion in 2026, reflecting a 35% growth [1]. Group 2: Demand Drivers - AI infrastructure capital expenditure remains a strong driving force for demand, with the ongoing advancements in AI models and hardware, such as Gemini3 and TPU7, contributing to increased computational needs [1]. - The competition among major players in the AI space is expected to further boost overall demand for computing power, benefiting various sectors including optical modules and servers in the A-share market [1]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The market outlook for artificial intelligence remains positive, with suggestions for investors to consider low-position opportunities in the Communication ETF (515880) and ChiNext AI ETF (159388) through methods like dollar-cost averaging [2].

Market Overview - The computing sector experienced a significant rise, with the Communication ETF (515880) increasing by 7% and the ChiNext AI ETF (159388) rising over 6% [1][2]. Factors Driving the Market - Increased expectations for interest rate cuts have emerged, as several Federal Reserve officials, including allies of Powell, expressed support for a potential 25 basis point cut in December, raising the likelihood from approximately 40% to 80% [2]. - Google's recent release of the Gemini 3 model, which has outperformed its predecessors in various benchmarks, has contributed to positive market sentiment [2][4]. AI Model Performance - The Gemini 3 Pro model has shown superior performance across multiple benchmarks, including achieving 95% in mathematics and 91.9% in scientific knowledge assessments, indicating its advanced capabilities compared to competitors [3]. Hardware Developments - Google's TPU v7 (Ironwood) has exceeded expectations in terms of memory capacity and energy efficiency, posing a competitive challenge to NVIDIA's offerings. Google anticipates a doubling of computing power every six months to meet rising AI service demands [5]. Market Outlook - There is a gradual improvement in risk appetite as pessimistic expectations are being absorbed by the market, with strong support levels in the A-share market despite rapid style shifts [6]. - While the competitive landscape for computing chips may evolve, NVIDIA is expected to maintain revenue growth due to its existing market share and new demands from sovereign AI projects [6]. - The AI industry is progressing rapidly, with significant investments expected to sustain growth, although short-term volatility should be monitored [7].

Core Viewpoint - The communication industry is experiencing an upward trend driven by the powerful engine derived from the AI wave, with significant performance differentiation across various segments [1]. Communication Industry Summary - In Q3 2025, the total revenue reached 632.1 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 3.7% [2]. - The net profit for the same quarter was 60.305 billion yuan, showing a year-over-year growth of 12.3% [2]. - Profitability metrics for Q3 2025 indicated a gross margin of 27.97% and a net margin of 9.54%, with a gross margin decrease of 0.40 percentage points and a net margin increase of 0.73 percentage points year-over-year [2]. Optical Module Industry Summary - The Wind Optical Module Concept Index reported a revenue of 29.590 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 56.0% [5]. - The net profit for the optical module sector in Q3 2025 was 7.336 billion yuan, which is a remarkable year-over-year increase of 118.8% [6]. - Profitability for the optical module sector showed a gross margin of 39.07% and a net margin of 24.79%, with increases of 5.59 percentage points and 7.12 percentage points year-over-year, respectively [7]. Inventory Insights - As of the end of Q3 2025, the inventory balance stood at 33.212 billion yuan, marking a year-over-year increase of 47.6% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 7.44% [8]. Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to consider the communication ETF (515880) and the ChiNext AI ETF (159388) as potential investment vehicles in light of the strong performance in the optical module sector [1].

Core Insights - The rapid demand for high-quality and convenient AI tools is reflected in the popularity of applications like Nano Banana, which significantly boosts the demand for GPU and accelerated hardware computing power [1] - The implementation of the "Artificial Intelligence +" action plan emphasizes strengthening foundational support capabilities and continuously activating the demand for AI infrastructure, solidifying the technological base for industry development [1] - With accelerated global AI investments and domestic replacements, the industry is transitioning from performance recovery to a valuation recovery phase in a bull market, indicating a clear long-term growth logic [1] Industry Overview - The ChiNext AI ETF (159388) has seen a net inflow of 22 million units, indicating strong capital interest in AI assets [1] - The ChiNext AI Index (970070), which the ETF tracks, has a 20% fluctuation and includes listed companies involved in software development, intelligent hardware manufacturing, and big data processing, reflecting the overall performance of AI-related companies in the ChiNext market [2] - Major companies like Alibaba are making significant investments in AI and cloud infrastructure, creating a closed-loop logic of "AI investment - cloud growth - commercialization," marking a critical development window for domestic computing power [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant inflow of 7 million units into the ChiNext AI ETF (159388), indicating strong investor interest in AI assets [1] - The ChiNext AI ETF tracks the ChiNext AI Index (970070), which has experienced a 20% fluctuation, reflecting the performance of listed companies involved in software development, smart hardware manufacturing, and big data processing related to AI technologies [1] - The index focuses on the innovation capabilities and growth potential of China's emerging technology industry, encompassing representative enterprises in the AI sector [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the sustained optimism in the technology sectors such as communications and semiconductors in the Chinese market, driven by favorable policies and increasing domestic capabilities in AI infrastructure [1][2] - The policy document outlines ambitious targets for AI application penetration rates, aiming for over 70% by 2027 and 90% by 2030, which is expected to catalyze domestic computing power [1] - TrendForce predicts a significant shift in the Chinese AI server market, with the proportion of foreign-sourced chips decreasing from 63% in 2024 to 42% by 2025, while local chip suppliers are expected to capture 40% of the market, indicating a strong trend towards domestic substitution [1] Group 2 - The current A-share market benefits from ongoing liquidity and strong performance, with clear advantages in the AI industry chain, including established business models and significant market size [2] - The AI industry chain is experiencing positive marginal changes, with accelerated domestic computing power development, making it a primary focus for asset revaluation in the A-share market [2] Group 3 - In terms of product allocation, it is recommended to balance investments between North American and domestic computing power, utilizing strategies such as grid trading and regular investment [3] - The North American computing power segment is represented by a communication ETF (515880), where over 75% is allocated to "optical modules, servers, copper connections, and optical fibers," indicating a solid fundamental basis for computing hardware [3] - For domestic computing power, the recommended ETF is the Guotai Sci-Tech Chip ETF (589100) for those considering elasticity, while the Chip ETF (512760) is suggested for balanced holdings [3]

Group 1 - The State Council has issued an opinion on the implementation of the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative, aiming to promote the deep integration of AI technology across various industries and fields [1] - By 2027, the goal is to achieve widespread integration of AI in six key areas, with the application penetration rate of new intelligent terminals and intelligent agents exceeding 70% [1] - By 2030, the penetration rate of new intelligent terminals and intelligent agents is expected to exceed 90%, making the intelligent economy a significant growth driver for China's economic development [1] - By 2035, China aims to fully enter a new stage of development in the intelligent economy and society [1] Group 2 - Guotai Junan indicates that with improvements in domestic AI chip design technology and manufacturing processes, along with the continuous development of domestic large models, the market share of domestic computing power is expected to continue to rise [1] - The Guotai Hai Tong Artificial Intelligence ETF (159388) tracks the ChiNext Artificial Intelligence Index (970070), which has seen a 20% fluctuation, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the AI sector within the ChiNext market [1] - The index focuses on the innovation capability and growth potential of China's emerging technology industries, covering representative enterprises in the AI field [1]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a strong rebound today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.48% to 3683.46 points, marking a new high since December 2021 [1] - The Shenzhen Component increased by 1.76%, the ChiNext Index by 3.62%, and the STAR Market Index by 1.49% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.15 trillion yuan, an increase of 269.4 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Technology-related sectors led the gains, particularly in communications, artificial intelligence, and innovative pharmaceuticals, while dividend sectors like coal, finance, oil, and transportation lagged [1] Economic and Policy Insights - The market is currently focused on tariff disruptions and the pace of interest rate cuts in the U.S. [1] - The Trump administration's recent decision to extend tariffs on certain goods by 90 days aligns with market expectations, but concerns remain regarding "secondary tariffs" on Indian products due to energy purchases from Russia [2][1] - Analysts suggest that the secondary tariffs may be a strategic move to pressure China regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict [2] Inflation and Interest Rate Outlook - Despite concerns that tariffs could lead to long-term inflationary pressures, actual inflation growth is not meeting expectations [3] - Predictions indicate that the year-end CPI may reach 3.2%, with a gradual peak expected [3] - The recent U.S. CPI data falling below expectations has created conditions for potential interest rate cuts in September [2] Sector Performance - The communication ETF (515880) saw a daily increase of 6.45%, driven by significant gains in optical module stocks, which constitute over 40% of the ETF's index [3] - The entrepreneurial AI ETF (159388) rose by 5.50%, benefiting from explosive growth in AI computing demand and product technology iterations [3] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector rebounded strongly, with the innovative drug ETF (517110) increasing by 4.05% [7] Innovative Pharmaceuticals - The innovative drug sector showed a mixed performance in the first half of the year, with leading companies achieving high growth while some faced short-term pressures [9] - The sector's growth is driven by product volume increases, business development (BD) overseas, and favorable procurement policies [9] - The Chinese innovative drug BD transaction volume reached 26.3 billion USD in the first half of 2025, accounting for 33% of the global market, up from 17% in 2021 [9] AI and Technology Developments - Huawei introduced a new technology, UCM, aimed at transforming the AI inference industry by efficiently managing large amounts of memory data [5] - The domestic AI application landscape is expected to follow the capital expenditure model of overseas giants like Meta and Microsoft, focusing on infrastructure investments [6] - Investors are encouraged to consider opportunities in communication ETFs and entrepreneurial AI ETFs to capitalize on the upward trend in the AI supply chain [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights that AI computing hardware-related stocks are leading the market, driven by strong demand from overseas cloud providers and the trend of domestic substitution in computing infrastructure due to national security concerns [1][3]. Group 2 - Recent financial reports indicate significant growth in cloud computing revenues for major overseas cloud providers, with Amazon AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google GCP reporting year-on-year revenue increases of 17%, 39%, and 32% respectively in Q2 2025 [2]. - The capital expenditure (CAPEX) for leading cloud providers collectively grew by 64% year-on-year in Q2 2025, with an upward revision of the annual CAPEX guidance [2]. - Projections suggest that the investment in AI servers by the four major cloud providers (Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta) will reach $151.3 billion in 2025 (+81%) and $248.3 billion in 2026 (+64%) [2]. Group 3 - The trend of domestic substitution in the computing infrastructure sector is emphasized as a long-term necessity for national security, especially in light of uncertainties surrounding tariffs and trade policies from the current U.S. administration [3]. - The Chinese government is unlikely to allow the AI industry to heavily rely on imported infrastructure, reinforcing the need for domestic alternatives [3]. - Investors are encouraged to consider products like the Communication ETF (515880) and the Entrepreneurship Board AI ETF (159388) to capitalize on the high demand for global AI computing hardware, as well as the Chip ETF (512760) for the domestic substitution trend [3].