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可控核聚变“掘金”热持续,产业链初具雏形 商业化之路还要走多久?
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-05-27 13:54
Core Viewpoint - The A-share controllable nuclear fusion sector has seen significant growth, driven by accelerated commercialization of nuclear energy, with the potential for limitless energy generation if controllable nuclear fusion is realized [1] Industry Overview - Controllable nuclear fusion is based on the fundamental principles of stellar energy release, offering a clean, efficient, and sustainable energy source with minimal radioactive waste [1] - The primary fuels for nuclear fusion are tritium and deuterium, with 1 liter of seawater capable of extracting 0.035 grams of deuterium, releasing energy equivalent to burning 300 liters of gasoline, and the global supply of deuterium from seawater could last for over a hundred billion years [1] Technological Pathways - Global fusion research primarily focuses on two main technological pathways: magnetic confinement fusion and inertial confinement fusion, with ITER being the most representative project for magnetic confinement and the National Ignition Facility (NIF) for inertial confinement [1] - Magnetic confinement fusion is considered the most effective approach for developing fusion energy due to its longer energy confinement time, higher technological maturity, and stronger engineering feasibility [1] Domestic Industry Chain - The domestic controllable nuclear fusion industry chain is taking shape, with upstream companies providing raw materials such as superconducting materials and tungsten-based materials [2] - Key players in the upstream include Western Superconducting (SH688122), Shanghai Superconductor, and Antai Technology (SZ000969), among others [2] - Midstream equipment manufacturers include Western Superconducting and Guoguang Electric (SH688776), which supply components for magnetic confinement systems [2] Application and Commercialization - Downstream application firms include China National Nuclear Power Co. and China General Nuclear Power Group, responsible for the operation and construction of nuclear power plants [3] - The commercialization of controllable nuclear fusion is progressing, with various companies involved, although many have not disclosed the revenue contribution from related businesses [3] - Guoguang Electric's products are key components for the ITER project, while Western Superconducting is the only domestic producer of superconducting materials for ITER and is also involved in the CFETR project [3] Future Prospects - The timeline for the commercialization of controllable nuclear fusion is projected around 2030, with significant advancements expected by 2035 [5] - The BEST project in Hefei aims to enhance the economic viability of nuclear fusion energy and is expected to complete by 2027, potentially becoming the world's first compact fusion energy experimental device [5][6] - Achieving commercial viability requires meeting specific criteria, including maintaining plasma conditions and achieving a fusion gain greater than one [6]
可控核聚变深度:终极能源的短期变化与后续展望
2025-05-06 02:27
Summary of Controlled Nuclear Fusion Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The controlled nuclear fusion industry is experiencing significant milestones, with projects like ITER completing the construction of core pulse superconducting magnet systems and China's Circulation No. 3 renovation project starting, with total investments reaching several hundred million [1][2][3] - Major economies including the US, UK, Japan, and the EU are accelerating the commercialization of controlled nuclear fusion, aiming for energy structure transformation and environmental protection [1][6] Key Developments - The EAST project in Hefei has started two months ahead of schedule and demonstrated power generation capabilities, marking a major breakthrough in making controlled nuclear fusion a reality [2] - The industry is transitioning from scientific validation to engineering validation, with various construction and design tenders being launched [3][18] - Significant contributions from China include advancements in superconducting tokamak technology by institutions like the Southwest Institute of Physics and the Chinese Academy of Sciences [5] Future Projections - Commercialization of controlled nuclear fusion is expected to begin after 2035 or 2040, with experimental pile construction and equipment tenders occurring beforehand [1][9] - 2025 is seen as a pivotal year for the industry, with projects like EAST and Spark entering construction and equipment phases, potentially attracting hundreds of billions in investments [3][16] Market Dynamics - The market for controlled nuclear fusion is projected to expand significantly due to increased experimental pile construction and equipment tenders, alongside advancements in AI and high-temperature superconducting materials [13][10] - The total investment for a single tokamak device is approximately $1.2 billion, with the market for superconducting technology potentially reaching $14.8 billion if high-temperature superconducting technology is utilized [14][15] Key Players and Components - Key components in the controlled nuclear fusion industry include magnet systems, filters, blanket systems, vacuum chambers, and vacuum dewars, with magnet systems accounting for a significant portion of costs [17] - Companies with high participation in the controlled nuclear fusion sector include Lianchuang Optoelectronics, Yongding Co., Yinlong Co., Jinda Co., and Guoguang Electric, all of which are involved in critical product segments [19] Investment Opportunities - The industry is forming a resonance effect, accelerating the industrialization process, with increased capital market attention and strategic investments from companies like PetroChina and Shanghai Future Energy [7][8] - The focus on core components and equipment manufacturing in the controlled nuclear fusion supply chain presents significant investment opportunities [17][19]