聚变技术突破临界点，产业化进程驶入 快车道 2026 年 02 月 27 日 【投资要点】 行 业 研 究 / 机 械 设 备 / 证 券 研 究 报 机械设备行业深度研究 示范堆与商业堆建设相关招标密集落地，拉动上游磁体、真空等环节 设备需求。据 IAEA 统计，2025-2030 年全球预计有约 10 个工程堆与 商业堆项目陆续开建，我们预测将带来约 350 亿美元设备市场；到 2050 年随着商业堆比例提升，产业链市场空间有望扩张至万亿美元级 别。以中国"夸父启明"（BEST）装置为代表，线圈、偏滤器等关键 子系统招标密集落地，显现出对磁体、真空等环节的强劲拉动；BEST 于 2023 年启动土建，目前处于核心设备建设高峰；2024-2025 年间 其线圈系统、偏滤器靶板、屏蔽包层等关键子系统招标密集展开，仅 2025M10-M11 便落地七项千万级中标项目。即将启动的 CFETR 等示 范堆工程体量及系统复杂度显著高于当前在建装置，后续有望推动磁 体、包层、低温、电源及加热等子系统率先放量，成为未来 5-10 年行 业景气度的核心支撑，相关设备公司有望持续受益。 挖掘价值 投资成长 强于大市（维持） ...

Group 1 - The 2026 Nuclear Fusion Energy Technology and Industry Conference successfully concluded in Hefei, Anhui, marking a key transition of controllable nuclear fusion from laboratory research to large-scale industrialization [1] - The commercialization of controllable nuclear fusion is accelerating, with significant breakthroughs in domestic projects such as EAST achieving 1 million degrees Celsius for 1066 seconds, and the CRAFT project nearing completion [2] - The industry is expected to enter a capital expenditure expansion cycle from 2025 to 2028, with projected total investments in major domestic projects reaching 146.5 billion yuan [2] Group 2 - The explosive growth of the controllable nuclear fusion industry is creating vast development opportunities for upstream and downstream enterprises, with companies like Western Superconducting and Shanghai Electric leading in their respective fields [3] - Capital participation is providing sustained momentum for the development of the industry chain, with companies like Zhongyou Capital investing heavily in fusion energy projects [4] - The conference is expected to further accelerate resource integration and collaborative innovation within the industry chain, enhancing the growth potential of quality enterprises [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing policy support for infrastructure investment, which is expected to drive equipment demand, particularly for large excavators due to the commencement of the Yaxia Hydropower Project [1] Group 1: Infrastructure Investment and Equipment Demand - Enhanced policy support is anticipated to boost infrastructure investment, leading to increased demand for equipment [1] - The initiation of the Yaxia Hydropower Project is expected to further stimulate the demand for large excavators and related machinery [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The internationalization, electrification, and intelligentization processes are advancing, with electric loader sales experiencing a year-on-year growth of 157.2% [1] - Intelligent applications such as unmanned forklifts and unmanned mining are expected to achieve breakthroughs [1] Group 3: Capital Expenditure in Fusion Industry - The nuclear fusion industry is entering a phase of capital expenditure expansion, with a focus on high-value components such as magnet systems, vacuum chambers, and power systems [1] Group 4: Low-altitude Economy - Policies related to the low-altitude economy emphasize safety, health, and high-quality development, with optimism surrounding infrastructure construction and low-altitude equipment research and application [1] Group 5: ETF Overview - The Industrial Mother Machine ETF (159667) tracks the China Securities Machine Tool Index (931866), which selects 50 listed companies involved in machine tool manufacturing and key component supply, covering various manufacturing sectors [1]

Group 1 - The controllable nuclear fusion industry is entering a capital expenditure expansion phase, with high-value segments characterized by significant technical barriers, benefiting core companies in the supply chain as project bidding progresses [1] - The strategic value of fusion energy is highlighted by AI-driven restructuring of electricity consumption, with significant acceleration in industry financing; global fusion industry financing reached $9.7 billion by July 2025, with 76% of surveyed fusion companies expecting to achieve grid connection by 2035 [1][2] - Domestic nuclear fusion projects are diversifying, with significant investments exceeding 150 billion yuan; the industry is expected to enter the engineering experimental reactor construction phase around 2027, further expanding the scale and investment in fusion devices [2] Group 2 - High-value segments such as magnet systems, vacuum chambers, and power systems are expected to benefit significantly from accelerated capital expenditure; these components account for 28%, 25%, and 15% of costs respectively in the ITER project [3] - The magnet system is crucial for magnetic confinement fusion devices, with superconducting materials expected to see widespread use; the vacuum chamber serves as the primary safety barrier for Tokamak devices, presenting design and manufacturing challenges [3]

Core Insights - The report highlights the significant funding disparities within the controlled nuclear fusion industry, emphasizing that the magnet system, power supply, and superconducting materials represent the core value areas due to their high investment amounts and technical barriers [1][2][3] - The magnet system accounts for the largest share of the total investment at 287 million yuan, representing 42.34% of the overall budget, indicating its critical role in the funding landscape of nuclear fusion projects [2][3] Investment Opportunities - The current investment opportunities in the nuclear fusion industry are primarily focused on two logical areas: 1. Segments with clear performance delivery timelines, such as the magnet system with a cumulative budget of 370 million yuan and the power supply system exceeding 100 million yuan, which provide strong performance locking for related manufacturers [4] 2. Manufacturers that have established good verification and customer connections during the BEST phase are expected to maintain their advantages in the CFEDR pre-research and subsequent construction phases [4] Market Dynamics - The bidding rhythm indicates that orders are concentrated in the mid-stage of engineering construction (approximately 20%-50% progress), focusing on equipment installation and subsystem integration, particularly involving the magnet system, vacuum chamber, and power supply system [3] - The CFEDR project is projected to have an investment scale of around 120 billion yuan, with equipment costs estimated at 72 billion yuan, suggesting significant potential value release in the industry chain between 2030 and 2033 [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the significant investment opportunities in the nuclear fusion industry, particularly focusing on the magnet system suppliers and the long-term prospects of the CFEDR project [1][6][27] - The investment distribution shows a high concentration of funds in core areas such as the magnet system, which accounts for 287 million yuan, or 42.34% of the total investment, indicating its critical role in the nuclear fusion device funding [1][3][40] - The bidding rhythm indicates that orders are primarily released during the mid-stage of engineering construction (approximately 20%-50% progress), with a focus on equipment installation and subsystem integration [2][39] Group 2 - The CFEDR project is projected to have an investment amount of around 120 billion yuan, with equipment costs estimated at 72 billion yuan, suggesting significant future value release in the industry chain from 2030 to 2033 [2][25][54] - Current bidding data from January to September 2025 shows that the BEST project leads with a budget of 386.25 million yuan, accounting for 55.98% of the total bidding amount, indicating a strong demand for key components [36][39] - The article suggests that companies with competitive advantages in the magnet and power supply sectors, such as Western Superconducting, Yingjie Electric, and Shanghai Superconducting, should be closely monitored for investment opportunities [3][27][29] Group 3 - The nuclear fusion industry is entering an engineering exploration phase, with the CFEDR project still in its early stages, highlighting the ongoing development and validation of key components [30][53] - The article outlines a clear evolutionary path for China's nuclear fusion projects, transitioning from experimental setups to engineering demonstrations, with the CFEDR positioned as a key milestone for stable energy output [15][54] - The market for nuclear fusion is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a global market size of approximately 843.46 billion USD by 2040, and China's market reaching about 53.68 billion USD, reflecting robust growth potential [21][54]

Core Insights - The investment in the nuclear fusion industry is highly differentiated, with significant funding concentrated in core areas such as magnet systems, power supplies, and superconducting materials, which have high technical barriers [1][2] - The magnet system accounts for the largest share of the budget at 287 million yuan, representing 42.34% of the total investment, indicating its critical role in nuclear fusion device funding [1] - The CFEDR project is expected to have a substantial investment of around 120 billion yuan, with equipment costs estimated at 72 billion yuan, suggesting significant future value release in the industry chain from 2030 to 2033 [2] Investment Opportunities - Current investment opportunities in the nuclear fusion industry chain are primarily focused on two areas: 1. Segments with clear performance delivery rhythms, such as the magnet system with a cumulative budget of 370 million yuan and the power supply system exceeding 100 million yuan, providing strong performance locking for related manufacturers [3] 2. Manufacturers that have established good verification and customer connections during the BEST phase are expected to maintain advantages in the CFEDR pre-research and subsequent construction [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes prioritizing investments in magnet system suppliers to seize long-term opportunities in the Controlled Fusion Energy Demonstration Reactor (CFEDR) [5] - The report identifies two main investment logic paths in the nuclear fusion industry: one focusing on segments with clear performance visibility, particularly in magnet and power systems, and the other on companies with established validation and customer connections in the BEST phase [5][34] Summary by Sections 1. Current Progress in Nuclear Fusion Industry - The nuclear fusion industry is entering an engineering exploration phase, with CFEDR still in its early project stages [38] - The report highlights that the magnet system holds the highest value in the nuclear fusion device, accounting for 42.34% of total investment [55] 2. Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities are primarily in segments with clear performance visibility, such as magnet systems with a cumulative budget of 370 million yuan and power systems exceeding 100 million yuan [5][34] - Companies with competitive advantages in these segments, such as Western Superconducting, Yingjie Electric, and Shanghai Superconducting, are recommended for attention [5][34] 3. Market Size and Growth - The global nuclear fusion market is projected to reach approximately 843.46 billion USD by 2040, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 6% from 2030 to 2040 [27] - The Chinese market is expected to grow to around 53.68 billion USD by 2040, with a CAGR of 6.4%, slightly higher than the global average [27] 4. Projected Investment in CFEDR - The total investment for CFEDR is estimated to be around 120 billion yuan, with equipment investment projected at approximately 72 billion yuan [31] - The report anticipates that CFEDR will accelerate into equipment bidding and installation phases following the completion of major components in the BEST project [68] 5. Key Components and Their Importance - The magnet system is identified as the core component of the Tokamak device, with significant investment and market concentration [55][56] - Superconducting materials are highlighted as a critical cost component within the magnet system, accounting for about 47% of its costs [55]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the controlled nuclear fusion industry, highlighting its potential as a strategic choice for achieving carbon neutrality goals [4]. Core Insights - Controlled nuclear fusion is seen as a revolutionary energy solution due to its abundant energy, zero emissions, and high safety [4]. - The industry is entering a critical phase with multiple technological pathways, primarily magnetic confinement and inertial confinement, both of which are advancing towards engineering validation [4]. - The development of the industry chain is emphasized, with a focus on materials and equipment as core challenges [4]. - Support from policies and capital is accelerating the commercialization process, with significant investments from both domestic and international entities [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Multiple Technological Pathways: Magnetic Confinement and Inertial Confinement as Mainstream - The report discusses the two main approaches to fusion research: magnetic confinement (e.g., Tokamak, stellarator) and inertial confinement (e.g., NIF in the US) [4][11]. - Both technologies are progressing towards engineering applications, with magnetic confinement focusing on steady-state operation and inertial confinement aiming for ignition efficiency [4]. 2. Collaborative Development of the Industry Chain: Focus on Materials and Equipment - The industry chain includes upstream superconducting materials and radiation-resistant tungsten alloys, midstream equipment for ITER and domestic experimental reactors, and downstream applications led by companies like China National Nuclear Corporation [4][5]. - Key companies in the upstream include Jingda Co., Yongding Co., and West Superconducting [5]. 3. Policy and Capital Support: Future Extension Space is Promising - China's 14th Five-Year Plan explicitly supports nuclear fusion research, with significant investments from state-owned enterprises and research institutions [4][29]. - International investments have exceeded $6.2 billion, indicating strong global interest in fusion technology [4]. 4. Beneficiary Companies in the Industry Chain: Focus on Long-Term Growth Potential - The report identifies several companies with long-term growth potential, including West Superconducting, Lianchuang Optoelectronics, and Yongding Co., which are involved in key materials and equipment for fusion projects [5][49][54]. - The report highlights the importance of these companies in advancing fusion technology and their roles in major projects like the "Spark One" hybrid reactor [4][5].

Summary of Controlled Nuclear Fusion Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The controlled nuclear fusion industry is experiencing significant milestones, with projects like ITER completing the construction of core pulse superconducting magnet systems and China's Circulation No. 3 renovation project starting, with total investments reaching several hundred million [1][2][3] - Major economies including the US, UK, Japan, and the EU are accelerating the commercialization of controlled nuclear fusion, aiming for energy structure transformation and environmental protection [1][6] Key Developments - The EAST project in Hefei has started two months ahead of schedule and demonstrated power generation capabilities, marking a major breakthrough in making controlled nuclear fusion a reality [2] - The industry is transitioning from scientific validation to engineering validation, with various construction and design tenders being launched [3][18] - Significant contributions from China include advancements in superconducting tokamak technology by institutions like the Southwest Institute of Physics and the Chinese Academy of Sciences [5] Future Projections - Commercialization of controlled nuclear fusion is expected to begin after 2035 or 2040, with experimental pile construction and equipment tenders occurring beforehand [1][9] - 2025 is seen as a pivotal year for the industry, with projects like EAST and Spark entering construction and equipment phases, potentially attracting hundreds of billions in investments [3][16] Market Dynamics - The market for controlled nuclear fusion is projected to expand significantly due to increased experimental pile construction and equipment tenders, alongside advancements in AI and high-temperature superconducting materials [13][10] - The total investment for a single tokamak device is approximately $1.2 billion, with the market for superconducting technology potentially reaching $14.8 billion if high-temperature superconducting technology is utilized [14][15] Key Players and Components - Key components in the controlled nuclear fusion industry include magnet systems, filters, blanket systems, vacuum chambers, and vacuum dewars, with magnet systems accounting for a significant portion of costs [17] - Companies with high participation in the controlled nuclear fusion sector include Lianchuang Optoelectronics, Yongding Co., Yinlong Co., Jinda Co., and Guoguang Electric, all of which are involved in critical product segments [19] Investment Opportunities - The industry is forming a resonance effect, accelerating the industrialization process, with increased capital market attention and strategic investments from companies like PetroChina and Shanghai Future Energy [7][8] - The focus on core components and equipment manufacturing in the controlled nuclear fusion supply chain presents significant investment opportunities [17][19]