证券研究报告 | 2025年8月24日 国信通信·算力租赁专题报告 Neocloud引领算力租赁发展，国内市场发展可期 行业研究 · 行业专题 通信 投资评级：优于大市（维持评级） 证券分析师：袁文翀 021-60375411 yuanwenchong@guosen.com.cn S0980523110003 证券分析师：张宇凡 021-61761027 zhangyufan1@guosen.com.cn S0980525080005 Public 投资摘要 全球算力景气度延续，随着英伟达GB系列高密度算力机柜加速出货，全球高端算力景气度进一步提升。当前AIGC浪潮下，全球服务器出货量 持续增长，咨询机构IDC预计2028年全球人工智能服务器市场规模有望达到2,227亿美元，其中生成式人工智能服务器占比将从2025年的 29.6%提升至2028年的37.7%。从需求端来看，模型迭代加速背景下训练端需求仍维持高位，推理侧需求随着应用的渗透逐步提升；从供给 端来看，以英伟达B/Rubin、AMD MI系列为代表的高性能算力芯片持续迭代，2025年下半年GB300有望加速交付。根据CSP厂商的Capex 指引，预计 ...

Investment Strategy - The recovery of H20 supply is expected to drive the AIDC hardware industry chain, alleviating domestic AI computing power shortages. The H20 chip has a peak FP16 computing power of 148 TFLOPS, significantly lower than the nearly 2000 TFLOPS of the H100, but its 96GB HBM3 memory and 4.0TB/s memory bandwidth make it suitable for applications requiring large memory capacity and high bandwidth, outperforming previous A100/A800 series [12][13] - The trend towards domestic chip replacement and technological self-sufficiency is irreversible. The Chinese government aims for a 70% self-sufficiency rate in chips by 2025. Domestic products like Huawei's Ascend 910 series and Haiguang's Deep Computing No. 3 are continuously improving their performance, with the Ascend 910C matching NVIDIA's H200 [13] - High demand for edge-side applications is expanding growth opportunities for H20 and RTX PRO. AI application monthly active users in China grew rapidly, with AI plugin applications increasing by 106% year-on-year. The high bandwidth characteristics of H20 are accelerating the large-scale implementation of AI inference scenarios [14][15] Industry News - The initial lifting of overseas computing chip restrictions allows H20 and MI308 to re-enter the Chinese market, which is expected to significantly accelerate domestic IDC construction progress. NVIDIA plans to resume sales of H20 and introduce a new compliant GPU, RTX PRO, suitable for digital twin AI applications [16] - T-Mobile's NTN service, T-Satellite, will officially launch on July 23, focusing on satellite direct-to-cellular networks to address communication challenges in areas without ground network coverage. This service has attracted over 1.8 million users during testing, indicating strong market demand [17] - OpenAI announced the launch of a general-purpose AI agent within ChatGPT, capable of assisting users with various computer-based tasks. This development is expected to drive further growth in AI applications and increase computing power demand [18][19] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the 2025 work priorities for the integration of information technology and industrialization, emphasizing the need for 5G and 6G technology investment and the development of industrial internet platforms [20] - SpaceX plans to launch its third-generation Starlink satellites in the first half of 2026, aiming to provide significantly higher downlink and uplink capacities compared to previous generations, potentially competing with ground cellular networks [21][22] Weekly Review and Focus - The communication sector saw a 7.02% increase this week, outperforming major indices. The IDC, optical modules, and optical communications sectors led the gains, with increases of 11.83%, 9.71%, and 6.10% respectively [23][24]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent aggressive semiconductor export control measures introduced by the U.S. Department of Commerce, which effectively bans the use of Huawei's Ascend 910 series chips globally, labeling it as a violation of U.S. export control regulations, with severe penalties for non-compliance [2][4]. Group 1: U.S. Export Control Measures - The U.S. Department of Commerce has issued guidelines that classify the use of Huawei's Ascend chips as a violation of export controls, threatening legal consequences for any organization or individual that complies with these measures [4][6]. - The measures are described as unilateral bullying and protectionism, which undermine the stability of the global semiconductor supply chain and infringe on the rights of other countries to develop advanced computing and AI technologies [4][8]. Group 2: China's Response - China firmly opposes the U.S. measures, asserting that they violate international law and the basic principles of international relations, and emphasizes the need for cooperation and mutual benefit in technological development [4][8]. - The Chinese government warns that any organization or individual that assists in enforcing U.S. measures may face legal repercussions under Chinese law, specifically referencing the Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law [4][8]. Group 3: Implications for Global Semiconductor Industry - The article highlights the potential disruption to the global semiconductor industry caused by U.S. actions, which could lead to a significant impact on supply chains and technological collaboration [4][9]. - It notes that the U.S. accusations against Huawei's chips are seen as unfounded and part of a broader strategy to maintain technological dominance and suppress China's advancements in the semiconductor sector [9][11].