证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2026-02-02 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观点评 20260129：1 月 FOMC：平安夜——2026 年 1 月 FOMC 会议 点评 核心观点：1 月美联储 FOMC 会议以 10-2 投票维持利率水平不变，发布 会上 Powell 回避了所有的政治问题，其守口如瓶的行为弱化了市场对美 联储独立性的交易。由于此前市场已充分定价到 4 月累计降息概率仅 30%，因此决议与发布会上的利率指引并未显著冲击市场，而 Waller 投 票 25bps 降息的动作被市场视为鸽派信号，最终强化宽货币交易。向前 看，本月底仍需关注 Miran 理事到期后的去留和政府停摆问题，2 月上旬 需关注 1 月非农和 CPI 数据是否超预期让 3-4 月降息彻底落空、以及特 朗普是否提名美联储新主席，上述问题是未来商品涨跌的关键。 固收金工 [Table_FixedGain] 固收深度报告 20260128：分子与分母的拉锯战：债市波动中不同权益板 块的应对逻辑 [Table_Tag] 宏观策略 "股债跷跷板"并非一个稳定、普适的规律，其实质是股票与债券 ...

看好光伏设备出海&太空算力机会；推荐国 内销售旺季来临的工程机械 增持（维持） 机械设备行业跟踪周报 证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·机械设备 [Table_Tag] [1.Table_Summary] 推荐组合：北方华创、三一重工、中微公司、恒立液压、中集集团、拓荆科技、海天 国际、柏楚电子、晶盛机电、杰瑞股份、浙江鼎力、杭叉集团、先导智能、长川科技、 华测检测、安徽合力、精测电子、纽威股份、芯源微、绿的谐波、海天精工、杭可科 技、伊之密、新莱应材、高测股份、纽威数控、华中数控。 2.投资要点： 【光伏设备】SpaceX 申请部署百万颗卫星，设备商有望充分受益于海外地面+太空光 伏双重机遇 1 月 30 日，SpaceX 向美国联邦通信委员会（FCC）提交了一项新申请，内容为"一个 拥有前所未有的计算能力的卫星星座，可为先进的 AI 模型及其相关应用提供支持"。 这一卫星系统将最多包含 100 万颗卫星，主要通过新一代重型运载火箭"星舰"发射， 建立一个环绕地球的轨道数据中心网络。 1、太空：全球卫星发射数量指数级增长，硅基 HJT 是最优太空光伏方案。中国无线电 创新院向国际电信联盟申请 20 万颗低轨轨道权 ...

Group 1 - The "Space+" industry is becoming a key focus for investment, with plans to develop space digital infrastructure, resource development, traffic management, and tourism [4][17][21] - There are currently 15 companies related to commercial space and space photovoltaics on the Beijing Stock Exchange, with a total market capitalization of 105.715 billion yuan as of January 30, 2026 [4][21] - Notable companies include Fujida (920640.BJ), which specializes in RF coaxial connectors and cables for communication and defense markets, and Starry Technology (920885.BJ), which provides ground equipment for rocket launches [4][21] Group 2 - The average weekly change for the consumption services sector was -2.02%, with the median P/E ratio dropping to 47.8X [5][40] - The high-end equipment sector saw a median P/E ratio decrease to 36.6X, while the information technology sector's median P/E ratio fell to 79.3X [5][43] - The chemical new materials sector's median P/E ratio decreased to 41.3X, and the pharmaceutical and biological sector's median P/E ratio dropped to 29.5X [5][52] Group 3 - In the technology new industries, the median P/E ratio for 159 companies decreased from 44.7X to 41.5X, with a total market capitalization decline from 560.692 billion to 531.795 billion yuan [6][59][60] - The average weekly change for the technology new industries was -6.53%, with only 14 out of 159 companies experiencing an increase [6][58] - Leading companies in terms of growth included Liancheng CNC (920368.BJ), which saw a 21.73% increase, and Hengtong Light (920045.BJ), which increased by 14.83% [6][63] Group 4 - Companies with high growth expectations for 2025 include Hengtong Light, with a projected net profit increase of 82.95% to 110.05%, and Fujida, expecting a net profit increase of 50.41% to 65.86% [7][27] - Starry Technology anticipates a net profit increase of 105.30% to 117.74%, while Tian Gong Co. (920068.BJ) is expected to deliver its first aerospace-grade titanium alloy wire order by March 2025 [7][29][30] - Liancheng CNC is projected to have a significant decline in net profit, with estimates ranging from a decrease of 72.39% to 81.50% [7][36]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the large-size silicon carbide and space photovoltaic industrialization [1] - The company's performance is in line with expectations, with a projected net profit for 2025 of 1.007 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 59.89% [1] - The demand for space and overseas photovoltaic equipment is strong, positioning the company to benefit from this trend [1] - The company has planned a total production capacity of 900,000 silicon carbide substrates, with new applications opening up for 12-inch substrates [1] - The company is positioned as a leader in providing integrated solutions for silicon wafers, advanced packaging, and advanced processes [1] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 is maintained at 1 billion, 1.2 billion, and 1.5 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to a current PE of 61, 49, and 40 times [1] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 17.983 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 69.04% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is expected to be 2.51 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 44.93% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2025 is projected at 0.77 yuan per share [1] - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 61.443 billion yuan, with a price-to-book ratio of 3.52 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the large-size silicon carbide and space photovoltaic industrialization [1] - The company's performance in 2025 is projected to meet expectations, with a forecasted net profit of 1.007 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 59.89% [1] - The demand for space and overseas photovoltaic equipment is strong, positioning the company to benefit from this trend [1] - The company has planned a total production capacity of 900,000 silicon carbide substrates, with new applications opening up for 12-inch substrates [1] - The company is positioned as a leader in providing integrated solutions for silicon wafers, advanced packaging, and advanced processes [1] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 17.983 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 69.04% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is forecasted at 1.007 billion yuan, down from 2.510 billion yuan in 2024 [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be 0.77 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 61.04 based on the current price [1] - The company’s gross margin is expected to decline to 24.79% in 2025, with a net profit margin of 8.36% [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company has established wholly-owned subsidiaries in the United States and Vietnam to support overseas business operations, enhancing local engagement and service to global customers [2] Group 1: Subsidiary Operations - The U.S. subsidiary acquired the KAYEX single crystal furnace division from SPX, a Fortune 500 company, in 2013, which has strengthened the company's intellectual property and operational experience in overseas markets [2] - The Vietnam subsidiary has a production capacity of nearly 100 single crystal furnaces per month and can flexibly adjust capacity based on customer demand [2] Group 2: Comprehensive Capabilities - The company possesses the capability to execute complete line delivery projects and has successfully delivered silicon wafer segment solutions to North American clients [2] - The Vietnam base includes its own graphite processing workshop, enabling the precision manufacturing of key components such as graphite heaters, graphite casings, graphite electrodes, and graphite bolts, facilitating a one-stop supply for complete machines and core consumables [2]

Group 1 - The North Exchange 50 index increased by 5.82%, with average daily trading volume rising by 34.58% [4][12] - The strongest sectors this week included military, TMT, and pharmaceuticals, with the commercial aerospace sector showing significant strength [7][8] - Notable stock performances included Tianli Composite (+35.97%), Huitong New Materials (+23.77%), and Beikang (+45.1%) [4][7] Group 2 - The North Exchange's strong stock ratio increased to 38.7%, indicating potential for continued market momentum [7][11] - The report highlights a shift in market style from small-cap stocks to growth sectors, particularly in AI computing and other emerging technologies [7][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of timing in thematic investments, particularly in the context of the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" [7][8] Group 3 - The report identifies key sectors to watch in the upcoming week, including the space photovoltaic industry and AI applications [8] - Specific companies of interest include Liancheng Numerical Control, Optech, and Deepseek V4, among others [8] - The report anticipates a return of absolute return funds in early 2026, with a focus on undervalued stocks [8] Group 4 - The North Exchange had 287 companies listed as of January 9, 2026, with new listings and approvals ongoing [24][28] - This week, five new companies were listed, and five were delisted, with a total planned financing of 221 million yuan [42][44] - The report notes that the North Exchange's PE (TTM) median is 42.05 times, reflecting a positive trend in valuations [12][19]

Group 1 - The report highlights a strong start for the North Exchange in 2026, with the North Exchange 50 index rising by 5.82% and daily trading volume increasing by 34.58% [9][14][25] - Key sectors showing significant growth include aerospace, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), and pharmaceuticals, with notable performances from companies in the rocket and satellite industry and the space photovoltaic sector [9][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of thematic investments, particularly in the spring season, focusing on the "15th Five-Year Plan" and future industries within the North Exchange [9][10] Group 2 - The North Exchange saw 261 stocks rise and 26 fall, resulting in a rise-to-fall ratio of 10.04, with top performers including BeiYikang and ZhongCheng Technology [34] - The average PE (TTM) for the North Exchange is reported at 86.55 times, with a median of 42.05 times, indicating a favorable valuation compared to other exchanges [22][24] - The report notes that the North Exchange's financing balance increased to 8.383 billion yuan, reflecting a positive trend in market liquidity [26][14] Group 3 - The report outlines upcoming IPOs and approvals, including the subscription of Kema Materials and the upcoming subscription of Aisheren, along with three companies scheduled for review [27][31] - The new three-board market saw five new listings and five delistings, with planned financing of 221 million yuan and completed financing of 83 million yuan [47][49] - The report identifies key companies to watch in the space photovoltaic and AI application sectors, including Liancheng CNC and Optech, as well as others involved in humanoid robotics and advanced packaging [10][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][6]. Core Insights - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 4.672 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.67%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 390 million yuan, down 67.68% year-on-year. For Q3 2025, revenue was 1.292 billion yuan, a decline of 48.65% year-on-year and 29.96% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit for Q3 was 82 million yuan, down 81.54% year-on-year and 50.46% quarter-on-quarter [2][4]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - Q3 revenue decline was primarily due to slower acceptance rates, although shipments remained normal. The report anticipates an increase in the proportion of revenue from string welding machines and modifications, while the share from single crystal furnaces and screen printing is expected to decrease. The gross margin for Q3 was 36.6%, an increase of 4.6% year-on-year and 8.3% quarter-on-quarter, attributed to a lower proportion of low-margin products [12][12]. - The expense ratio for Q3 was 25.0%, an increase of 11.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, influenced by revenue decline and increased R&D and management expenses. Asset impairment losses and credit impairment losses for Q3 were -73 million yuan and -45 million yuan, respectively, impacting profit release [12][12]. Future Outlook - As of the end of Q3, the company had an order backlog of 9.940 billion yuan (including tax), with semiconductor orders reaching a new high and continuing to grow. In the photovoltaic sector, new capacity demand has decreased due to industry cycles, while demand for technological upgrades has increased. The company has developed compatible multi-slice edge passivation equipment, which is currently undergoing small-batch trial production at client sites [12][12]. - In the lithium battery sector, the company has laid out equipment for sulfide electrolytes, stacking equipment, and assembly equipment, signing a strategic cooperation agreement with Yili Technology, and has secured orders exceeding 10 million yuan. The company has also developed several products for negative electrode material equipment, successfully obtaining an order for silicon oxide sintering furnace equipment from a lithium battery materials company in Vietnam [12][12]. - In the semiconductor sector, packaging equipment has received orders from clients such as Optoelectronics, Global Broadcasting, and others. The prototypes for flip chip bonding machines and die attach machines have shown good results in client validation, and the company is continuously optimizing based on client needs [12][12].

Summary of the Conference Call for Aotwei Company Overview - **Company**: Aotwei - **Industry**: Photovoltaic and Energy Storage Equipment Key Financial Metrics - **Revenue**: 1-9 months of 2025 revenue was 1.292 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 48.65% [2][3] - **Net Profit**: Net profit for the same period was 390 million yuan, down 67% year-on-year [2][3] - **Third Quarter Performance**: Q3 revenue was 469.2 million yuan, a 32.67% year-on-year decline; Q3 net profit was 82 million yuan, down 81% year-on-year [3] Research and Development - **R&D Investment**: Q3 2025 R&D investment reached 153 million yuan, focusing on solid-state batteries and optical modules [2][4] - **Gross Margin**: Gross margin for 1-9 months was approximately 30.17%, with a significant increase in Q3 [2][4] - **Net Profit Margin**: Q3 net profit margin was 6.38%, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the previous quarter [2][4] Order and Contract Status - **Contract Liabilities**: As of 1-9 months, contract liabilities reached 2.848 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 210 million yuan [6] - **New Orders**: Total new orders for the year were approximately 4.2 billion yuan, with Q3 contributing 1.32 billion yuan [6] - **Order Composition**: Photovoltaic equipment orders accounted for nearly 50%, energy storage equipment for 13.8%, and retrofit services for 33% [6] International Business - **Overseas Orders**: 1-9 months overseas orders totaled approximately 2.37 billion yuan, representing 44% of total orders [7] - **Profitability**: Overseas business had a slightly higher gross margin than domestic, but the low revenue recognition ratio limited its impact on overall gross margin [7] Market Trends and Business Development - **Energy Storage Growth**: Rapid growth in energy storage business, with a target of 1 billion yuan in orders for 2025 [2][9] - **Solid-State Battery Development**: Significant progress in solid-state battery technology, with collaborations with major clients [11][21] - **Semiconductor Business**: The semiconductor segment has seen progress, with orders expected to reach 200 million yuan for the year [14] Product and Technology Insights - **Product Structure Impact**: The revenue recognition of single crystal furnaces and screen printing equipment was low, while high-margin products like string welding machines positively impacted overall gross margin [5] - **New String Welding Machines**: New models are expected to increase value by 30%-70% per gigawatt investment [20] - **Market for Optical Modules**: The AOI market for optical modules is emerging, with potential market size estimated at 4-5 billion yuan [22] Future Outlook - **Order Growth**: Anticipated order growth driven by new businesses such as optical modules, solid-state batteries, and energy storage equipment [18] - **Technological Advancements**: Continuous investment in new technologies to maintain competitive advantage in the semiconductor and optical module sectors [23][32] - **Market Challenges**: The company acknowledges potential challenges in sustaining high growth rates in overseas markets due to self-built capacity and economic considerations [17] Additional Insights - **Asset Impairment**: Asset impairment primarily relates to inventory aging and customer operational conditions, with uncertain prospects for reversal [15][16] - **Future Plans in Lithium Battery Sector**: Plans to expand into the automotive battery sector, with a focus on high-tech requirements [27] - **Development of New Products**: Ongoing efforts to develop new products in response to market demands, particularly in the energy storage and solid-state battery sectors [29]