摘要：本周，南华综合指数上涨0.57点，涨幅为0.02%；其中影响力最大的品种为黄金和白银，黄金品种指数涨跌 幅为2.35%，贡献度为0.17%；白银品种指数涨跌幅为2.31%，贡献度为0.14%。南华工业品指数下跌16.45点，跌 幅为-0.46%；其中影响力最大的品种为原油和天然橡胶，原油品种指数贡献度为-0.19%；天然橡胶品种指数贡献度 为-0.15%。南华金属指数不变，其中影响力最大的品种为铁矿石，铁矿石贡献度为0.21%。南华能化指数下跌20.99 点，跌幅为-1.26%；其中影响力最大的品种为原油，原油贡 南华商品指数周报 2025年9月12日 指数发展部 曹扬慧 (Z0000505) 赵 搏 (F03103098) 王怡琳 (F03118352) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 摘要 1.01 1.03 1.00 1.02 1.00 1.01 0_99 1.00 0_99 0.99 0.98 0_98 0_98 0.97 05 06 07 08 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 NIHMI NHNF NHECI NHCl NHPMI NHI NHA 4_00 5 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Stock Market Adjustment, Bond Market Rebound - Report Date: September 5, 2025 - Researcher: Liu Yang - Contact: liuyang18036@greendh.com - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F3063825 - Futures Trading Consultation Number: Z0016580 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of the main contracts of Treasury bond futures this week was to rise first and then fall. There is an obvious seesaw effect between stocks and bonds. The yield curve of Treasury bond cash bonds has changed little. The manufacturing PMI in August continued to be below the boom - bust line, with production expanding and demand being slightly weak. The non - manufacturing business activity index increased slightly. The export of South Korea in August showed a certain growth. The wholesale price of agricultural products continued to rise, and the inflation pressure was limited in the short term. If the stock market continues to be strong, it may suppress the bond market; if the stock index adjusts, it will be beneficial to bond bulls [5][7][12] Summary by Directory Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Market Review - The main contracts of Treasury bond futures showed a trend of rising first and then falling this week. On Monday, they refused to fall and rebounded to close a medium - positive line. On Tuesday, there was a small - scale fluctuation adjustment. On Wednesday, they attacked again and closed a medium - positive line. On Thursday, they rose and then fell slightly. On Friday, they fell sharply. For the whole week, the 30 - year Treasury bond fell 0.18%, the 10 - year Treasury bond rose 0.12%, the 5 - year Treasury bond rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year Treasury bond fell 0.03% [5] Stock - Bond Seesaw - The Wind All - A Index hit a new high on Monday this week, then fell for three consecutive days from Tuesday to Thursday, and rebounded sharply on Friday. Although the Treasury bond futures showed independence on some single days, the overall stock - bond seesaw effect was obvious [7] Changes in the Yield Curve of Treasury Bond Cash Bonds at Maturity - As of September 5, compared with August 29, the 2 - year Treasury bond yield rose 1 BP to 1.41%, the 5 - year Treasury bond yield fell 2 BP to 1.61%, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield fell 1 BP to 1.83%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield fell 3 BP to 2.11% [9] Manufacturing PMI in August - The official manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the fifth consecutive month. Large - scale enterprises continued to expand in the boom range, medium - sized enterprises' prosperity declined, and small - scale enterprises hovered at a low level. The PMI of the equipment manufacturing industry and high - tech manufacturing industry increased. The procurement volume index increased, indicating that corporate procurement activities accelerated [12] Production and Demand in the Manufacturing Industry in August - The production index in August was 50.8%, showing continuous expansion. The new order index was 49.5%, indicating that market demand was still slightly weak. Industries such as medicine and computer communication electronics had rapid production and demand release, while industries such as textile and clothing and chemical raw materials had insufficient production and demand [14] New Export Orders and Import Index in the Manufacturing Industry in August - The new export order index in August was 47.2%, and the import index was 48.0%. The new export order index changed little compared with July. After the Sino - US economic and trade talks in Stockholm, the two sides agreed to suspend the implementation of 24% tariffs for 90 days, and China's export growth in August might be acceptable [17] Price Indexes in the Manufacturing Industry in August - The purchase price index of major raw materials in August was 53.3%, and the ex - factory price index was 49.1%. The purchase price index of raw materials continued to be in the expansion range, and the expansion amplitude increased in August. The prices of some industries rose, while those of some industries were below the critical point. The average value of the Nanhua Industrial Products Index in August was basically the same as that in July [19] Inventory Indexes in the Manufacturing Industry in August - The raw material inventory index in August was 48.0%, and the finished - product inventory index was 46.8%. The finished - product inventory index fell to a relatively low level again. From January to July, the cumulative year - on - year growth of manufacturing profits was 4.8%, and the year - on - year growth of finished - product inventory was 2.3%. Manufacturing enterprises were cautious about increasing inventory [22] Business Expectation Indexes in the Manufacturing Industry in August - The employment index in August was 47.9%, hovering at a relatively low level. The business activity expectation index was 53.7%, showing a slight rebound in the expectation of future prosperity [24] Non - Manufacturing Business Activity Index in August - The non - manufacturing business activity index in August was 50.3%. The construction industry business activity index was 49.1%, and the service industry business activity index was 50.5%. Some industries such as capital market services and transportation were in a high - level boom range, while industries such as retail and real estate had weak prosperity [26] Construction Industry Indexes in August - The new order index in August was 40.6%, and the employment index was 43.6%. The business activity expectation index was 51.7%. Affected by weather conditions, the prosperity of the construction industry slowed down [29] Service Industry Indexes in August - The new order index in August was 47.7%, and the employment index was 45.9%. The business activity expectation index was 57.0%, showing a slight upward trend [31] South Korea's Exports in August - South Korea's exports increased by 1.3% year - on - year in August. The daily average export amount calculated by working days increased by 5.8% year - on - year. The semiconductor export amount reached a record high, and the automobile export also showed strong momentum [34] Agricultural Product Price Index - The Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index on September 5 was 117.93, higher than that on August 31 but significantly lower than the same period last year, indicating that the price continued to rise but was still lower than last year [37] Nanhua Industrial Products Index - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index continued to decline after hitting a closing high on July 25. It declined slightly in August and fluctuated narrowly this week, indicating limited short - term inflation pressure [39] Capital Interest Rates - After the end of the month, the capital interest rates fell to a low level this week. The weighted average of DR001 was between 1.31% - 1.32%, and the weighted average of DR007 was around 1.44%. The average issuance interest rate of one - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit was around 1.66%. The central bank carried out a 100 - billion - yuan 3 - month (91 - day) repurchase operation on Friday, which fully offset the due amount [41] Market Logic and Trading Strategies - The manufacturing PMI in August continued to be below the boom - bust line, with economic downward pressure still obvious. The service industry business activity index expanded moderately. The strong rebound of the Wind All - A Index on Friday corresponded to the unilateral decline of Treasury bond futures. If the stock market continues to be strong, it may suppress the bond market; if the stock index adjusts, it will be beneficial to bond bulls. The trading - type investment should conduct band operations [44][45]

Group 1: Report Summary - The South China Comprehensive Index rose 18.21 points, a 0.72% increase this week. Gold and silver were the most influential varieties, with gold's index rising 3.82% and contributing 0.28%, and silver's index rising 4.51% and contributing 0.27% [1][2]. - The South China Industrial Products Index fell 2.38 points, a -0.07% decrease. Crude oil and PTA were the most influential, with crude oil contributing -0.12% and PTA -0.1% [1][2]. - The South China Metal Index dropped 12.24 points, a -0.19% decline. Lithium carbonate was the most influential, contributing -0.13% [1][2]. - The South China Energy and Chemical Index decreased 2.4 points, a -0.14% fall. Crude oil was the most influential, contributing -0.17% [2]. - The South China Agricultural Products Index increased 3.42 points, a 0.31% rise. Palm oil was the most influential, contributing 0.3% [2]. Group 2: Weekly Data Overview - Table 1 shows the weekly data of South China commodity indices, including closing prices, changes, and other details for various indices such as the Comprehensive Index, Precious Metals Index, etc. [3]. - Table 2 presents the strength - weak arbitrage data of South China variety indices, including present values, previous values, changes, and rankings for different commodity comparisons [6]. - Table 3 provides the daily price changes, contribution to index price changes, average weekly holdings, and other data for each futures variety [8]. Group 3: Sector Index Analysis South China Industrial Products Index - The top six contributing varieties are crude oil, PTA, fuel oil, rebar, sintered ore, and tin [10]. South China Metal Index - The top three contributing varieties are lithium carbonate, rebar, and tin [10]. South China Energy and Chemical Index - The top three contributing varieties are crude oil, PTA, and fuel oil [10]. South China Agricultural Products Index - The top three contributing varieties are palm oil, corn, and soybean oil [10]. South China Black Index - The top three contributing varieties are iron ore, coke, and manganese - silicon [12]. South China Non - ferrous Index - The top three contributing varieties are lithium carbonate, tin, and alumina [14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the Nanhua Composite Index dropped 3.82 points, a decline of -0.15%. The most influential varieties were crude oil and palm oil, with the crude oil index down -1.65% and contributing -0.27%, and the palm oil index down -2.88% and contributing -0.13% [1][2]. - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index fell 16.12 points, a -0.44% decline. The most influential varieties were crude oil and coke, with the crude oil index contributing -0.29% and the coke index contributing -0.12% [1][2]. - The Nanhua Metal Index remained unchanged, with iron ore being the most influential variety, contributing 0.38% [1][2]. - The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index decreased 18.6 points, a -1.11% decline. Crude oil was the most influential variety, contributing -0.41% [2]. - The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index dropped 10.61 points, a -0.96% decline. Palm oil was the most influential variety, contributing -0.38% [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Data Overview | Index Name | This Week's Closing | Last Week's Closing | Change in Points | Change Rate | This Week's Maximum | This Week's Minimum | Amplitude | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Composite Index NHCI | 2521.31 | 2525.13 | -3.82 | -0.15% | 2544.65 | 2517.10 | 27.54 | | Precious Metals Index NHPMI | 1273.01 | 1250.91 | 22.10 | 1.77% | 1273.01 | 1250.91 | 22.10 | | Industrial Products Index NHII | 3614.83 | 3630.95 | -16.12 | -0.44% | 3665.33 | 3611.26 | 54.08 | | Metal Index NHMI | 6394.54 | 6365.05 | 29.48 | 0.46% | 6436.44 | 6365.05 | 71.39 | | Energy and Chemical Index NHECI | 1664.76 | 1683.37 | -18.60 | -1.11% | 1696.83 | 1664.76 | 32.07 | | Non-ferrous Metals Index NHNFI | 1700.10 | 1691.68 | 8.42 | 0.50% | 1708.13 | 1691.68 | 16.46 | | Black Index NHFI | 2533.25 | 2535.84 | -2.59 | -0.10% | 2579.12 | 2533.25 | 45.87 | | Agricultural Products Index NHAI | 1096.43 | 1107.04 | -10.61 | -0.96% | 1109.32 | 1095.92 | 13.40 | | Nanhua Comprehensive Consumption NHCIMi | 1181.26 | 1188.65 | -7.39 | -0.62% | 1195.39 | 1178.85 | 16.54 | | Energy Index NHEI | 1056.77 | 1068.99 | -12.22 | -1.14% | 1078.80 | 1053.33 | 25.47 | | Petrochemical Consumption NHPCI | 950.44 | 960.51 | -10.07 | -1.05% | 964.55 | 950.44 | 14.10 | | Coal Chemical Industry Investment AHCCI | 1015.90 | 1031.95 | -16.05 | -1.55% | 1036.83 | 1015.90 | 20.93 | | Black Raw Materials Index NHFMI | 1054.58 | 1050.35 | 4.23 | 0.40% | 1075.72 | 1050.35 | 25.38 | | Building Materials Index NHBMI | 737.62 | 744.61 | -6.99 | -0.94% | 750.58 | 737.62 | 12.96 | | Oilseeds and Oils Index HOOl | 1262.70 | 1281.46 | -18.75 | -1.46% | 1285.62 | 1262.70 | 22.92 | | Economic Crops Index NHAECI | 918.03 | 905.22 | 12.81 | 1.41% | 918.03 | 905.22 | 12.81 | [3] 3.2 Nanhua Variety Index Strength and Weakness Arbitrage Data - The report provides data on the ratio of various Nanhua commodity indices, including the present value, previous value, change, and ranking. For example, the ratio of the precious metals index to the composite index is 0.505, with a change of 0.009517708 and a ranking of 0.833 [6]. 3.3 Contribution of Each Variety's Daily Rise and Fall to the Index Rise and Fall - The report shows the average position volume, month-on-month increase, and position volume ratio of various futures varieties this week. For example, the position volume of soybean meal is 4,280,386 hands, with a month-on-month decrease of -4.72% and a position volume ratio of 11.22% [8]. 3.4 Weekly Data of Nanhua's Various Sector Indices - **Industrial Products Index NHII**: Closed at 3614.83 this week, down -0.44% from last week. The most influential varieties were alumina, soda ash, etc. [10]. - **Metal Index NHMI**: Closed at 6394.54 this week, up 0.46% from last week. The most influential varieties were iron ore, tin, etc. [10]. - **Energy and Chemical Index NHECI**: Closed at 1664.76 this week, down -1.11% from last week. The most influential varieties were crude oil, coke, etc. [10]. - **Agricultural Products Index NHAI**: Closed at 1096.43 this week, down -0.96% from last week. The most influential variety was palm oil [10]. - **Black Index NHFI**: Closed at 2533.25 this week, down -0.10% from last week. The most influential varieties were coke, rebar, etc. [12]. - **Non-ferrous Metals Index NHNFI**: Closed at 1700.10 this week, up 0.50% from last week. The most influential varieties were tin, indium, etc. [14].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View This week, the Nanhua Composite Index dropped 11.09 points, a decline of -0.44%. The most influential varieties were rebar and soda ash. The Nanhua Industrial Products Index fell 27.09 points, a -0.74% decrease, with soda ash and rebar being the most influential. The Nanhua Metal Index decreased by 101.15 points, a -1.56% decline, and rebar had the greatest influence. The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index dropped 4.31 points, a -0.26% fall, with soda ash being the most influential. The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index declined 5.26 points, a -0.47% decrease, and soybean meal had the greatest influence [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Data Overview - **Composite Index (NHCI)**: Closed at 2525.13 this week, down 11.09 points (-0.44%) from last week. The maximum was 2536.21, and the minimum was 2511.88, with a volatility of 24.33 [3]. - **Precious Metals Index (NHPMI)**: Closed at 1250.91, down 2.94 points (-0.23%) from last week. The maximum was 1258.59, and the minimum was 1242.01, with a volatility of 16.58 [3]. - **Industrial Products Index (NHII)**: Closed at 3630.95, down 27.09 points (-0.74%) from last week. The maximum was 3658.04, and the minimum was 3610.11, with a volatility of 47.93 [3]. - **Metal Index (NHMI)**: Closed at 6365.05, down 101.15 points (-1.56%) from last week. The maximum was 6466.21, and the minimum was 6365.05, with a volatility of 101.15 [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Index (NHECI)**: Closed at 1683.37, down 4.31 points (-0.26%) from last week. The maximum was 1687.68, and the minimum was 1667.62, with a volatility of 20.06 [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Index (NHNFI)**: Closed at 1691.68, down 22.82 points (-1.33%) from last week. The maximum was 1714.49, and the minimum was 1691.68, with a volatility of 22.82 [3]. - **Black Index (NHFI)**: Closed at 2535.84, down 53.54 points (-2.07%) from last week. The maximum was 2589.38, and the minimum was 2535.45, with a volatility of 53.93 [3]. - **Agricultural Products Index (NHAI)**: Closed at 1107.04, down 5.26 points (-0.47%) from last week. The maximum was 1114.54, and the minimum was 1103.62, with a volatility of 10.92 [3]. 3.2 Nanhua Index Arbitrage Data The report provides data on the ratio of various Nanhua sector indices and the ranking of these ratios in historical periods. For example, the ratio of the Precious Metals Index to the Composite Index changed from 0.495 to 0.494, with a change of -0.001008142 and a ranking of 0.810 [6]. 3.3 Contribution of Each Variety to Index Fluctuations - **Nanhua Industrial Products Index**: The most influential varieties were soda ash (contribution of -0.21%) and rebar (contribution of -0.2%) [2]. - **Nanhua Metal Index**: Rebar had the greatest contribution of -0.4% [2]. - **Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index**: Soda ash contributed -0.31% [2]. - **Nanhua Agricultural Products Index**: Soybean meal contributed -0.18% [2].

Group 1: Overview of Major Assets - In July, the A-share market approached 3600 points, with the 10-year government bond yield rising and commodities experiencing fluctuations [1][8] - The A-share market saw a strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a high of 3616 points on July 30, and closing at 3573 points on July 31, marking a 3.7% increase for the month [1][8] - The global stock indices generally rose, with the UK FT100 and Nasdaq leading the gains [1][8] Group 2: A-share Market Performance - Major broad-based indices in the A-share market rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, ChiNext Index, and STAR Market Index increasing by 3.74%, 3.54%, 8.14%, and 4.43% respectively in July [13] - Growth and consumption styles led the market, with the growth and consumption indices rising by 6.19% and 5.35% respectively [13] - The steel and pharmaceutical sectors were among the top performers, with increases of 16.76% and 13.93% respectively [13] Group 3: Economic and Liquidity Conditions - Economic data in June showed divergence, with manufacturing PMI remaining in contraction territory, while industrial value-added growth exceeded expectations [3] - Social financing began to recover, indicating a marginal easing of monetary conditions [3] - Northbound capital saw a rebound in July, with margin trading balances rising above 190 billion yuan, and ETF trading volumes reaching new highs since April [3][8]

Report Overview - The report focuses on the weekly market trends of treasury bond futures, including price movements, yield curve changes, and influencing factors, and provides market logic and trading strategies [26] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - After the short - term sharp decline this week, treasury bond futures prices may stabilize. The anti - involution policy implementation may be relatively mild, and the short - term rapid rise in the commodity futures market may end. The stock - bond seesaw may reappear, and the results of the upcoming economic talks and the Politburo meeting are worth attention. The trading strategy is for trading - type investments to conduct band operations [26] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Market Review - This week, the main contracts of treasury bond futures fell continuously with significant retracements. The 30 - year treasury bond dropped 2.14%, the 10 - year dropped 0.58%, the 5 - year dropped 0.41%, and the 2 - year dropped 0.12% [4] 3.2 Changes in Treasury Bond Spot Yield Curve - As of July 25, compared with July 18, the treasury bond spot yield curve shifted upward overall. The 2 - year yield rose from 1.38% to 1.44%, the 5 - year from 1.53% to 1.60%, the 10 - year from 1.67% to 1.73%, and the 30 - year from 1.89% to 1.97% [6] 3.3 Market Risk Preference and Related Influencing Factors - This week, market risk preference increased, showing an obvious stock - bond seesaw effect [9] - Since July, the decline rate of the national new - home sales area has accelerated. From January to March, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 236,000 square meters, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In April, it was 230,000 square meters, a 12% year - on - year decrease. In May, it was 260,000 square meters, a 3% decrease. In June, it was 310,000 square meters, an 8.4% decrease. From July 1 to 25, it was 200,000 square meters, a 20% decrease [12] - In the first half of July, the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) declined slightly, with a faster decline in the US - West route. The CCFI US - West route index reached a recent high of 1256.91 on June 20 and then declined. The CCFI composite index reached a recent high of 1369.34 on June 27 and fell to 1261.35 on July 25 [15] - On July 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced that multiple anti - involution and stable - growth policies would be introduced, driving up the prices of domestic - demand - oriented bulk commodities and the Nanhua Industrial Products Index [18] 3.4 Commodity Market Conditions - On Friday night, the prices of coking coal and coke dropped significantly. After five consecutive days of rapid price increases in the first five days of this week, coking coal prices dropped sharply on Friday night after the exchange issued a risk warning, indicating that the short - term rapid rise may end [21] 3.5 Capital Interest Rate Situation - This week, the fluctuation of capital interest rates increased. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.44% this week, compared with 1.47% last week. DR001 rose from a weighted average of over 1.3% in the first three days to 1.65% and 1.52% on Thursday and Friday. The weighted average of DR007 was 1.54% this week, compared with 1.53% last week. The average issuance interest rate of one - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.65% this week, compared with 1.63% last week [24] 3.6 Market Logic and Trading Strategies - Market Logic: The announcement of anti - involution policies increased market risk preference, causing stocks and commodity futures to rise and treasury bond futures to fall. The economic fundamentals still face challenges in terms of demand. The short - term rapid rise in the commodity futures market may end, and treasury bond futures prices may stabilize after a sharp decline. The stock - bond seesaw may reappear, and the results of the economic talks and the Politburo meeting are worth attention [26] - Trading Strategy: Band operations for trading - type investments [26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The report constructs the Guoxin Risk - Aversion Index by synthesizing the price states of four major asset classes (stocks, bonds, commodities, and exchange rates) in the Chinese capital market using the diffusion index method. The index reflects the market's risk - off state, considering only the direction of asset price changes rather than the amplitude [1][11][12]. - The Guoxin Risk - Aversion Index has an obvious negative correlation with the macro - economic fundamentals. Economic fundamentals change first, followed by changes in the risk - aversion state of the capital market [2]. - The change in the week - on - week increase or decrease of the Guoxin Risk - Aversion Index leads the change of the fixed - base diffusion index, and it can be used to judge the possible inflection points of the overall index [38]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Construction of Guoxin Risk - Aversion Index - **Definition**: The report divides the assets in the capital market into risk assets and risk - aversion assets. It uses the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index to represent stock prices, the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate for bond prices, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index for commodity prices, and the RMB - US dollar exchange rate for the exchange - rate market. The index is used to measure the market's risk pricing [11]. - **Compilation Method**: The report uses the diffusion index method to synthesize the price states of the four asset classes. It selects the weekly frequency for processing, starting from the first week of 2012 with an initial index value of 100. The rising index indicates a risk - off state in the capital market, and the falling index indicates a risk - on state [12]. 3.2 Relationship between Guoxin Risk - Aversion Index and Economic Fundamentals - **Relationship with Guoxin Macro - high - frequency Diffusion Index**: The Guoxin Macro - high - frequency Diffusion Index is a high - frequency tracking indicator for macro - economic growth. It uses seven high - frequency indicators to track representative industries weekly. Both the weekly and monthly comparisons show that the Guoxin Risk - Aversion Index has a negative correlation with the macro - economic fundamentals, and the macro - economic fundamentals lead the change of the risk - aversion index [22][23][30]. - **Relationship with GDP**: The Guoxin Risk - Aversion Index has a weak correlation with the constant - price quarterly year - on - year GDP, and a certain negative correlation with the current - price quarterly year - on - year GDP and the quarterly year - on - year GDP deflator. However, there are periods of deviation, indicating that the economic fundamentals lead the change of the risk - aversion index [36][37]. 3.3 Technical Analysis of Guoxin Risk - Aversion Index - The week - on - week increase or decrease of the Guoxin Risk - Aversion Index is a more sensitive indicator than the fixed - base index. By observing its change and the moving average, it is possible to judge the possible inflection points of the fixed - base index. The leading sensitivity is more significant on a monthly frequency [38][41].