数据来源：南华期货 免责声明 是一面都能够落实完全"。 来源：网络网站 本页是中国网站 上海 上海 上海 上海 上海 上海 上海 上海 上海 上海 上 上 上 上 上 上 上 上 上 上 上 上 上 上 上 上 上 上 上 上 上 上 上 上 上 上 上 上 上 ： 上 ： 上 ： 上 ： 上 ： 上 ： 上 ： 上 ： 上 ： ： 空 上 有 ： 2 ： 2 ： 南华商品指数： 王怡琳 2025-08-18 16:59:47 摘要：依照相邻交易日的收盘价计算，今日南华综合指数下跌-0.15%。板块指数中，涨幅最大的板块是南华贵金属 指数，上涨0.38%，涨幅最小的板块是南华农产品指数，涨幅为0.11%，跌幅最大的板块是南华黑色指数，跌幅 为-0.85%，跌幅最小的板块是南华有色金属指数，跌幅为-0.25%。 主题指数中，涨幅最大的主题指数是油脂油料指 数，上涨0.6%，涨幅最小的主题指数是石油化工指数，涨幅为0.04%，跌幅最大的主题指数是黑色原材料指数，跌 幅为-0.84%，跌幅最小的主题指数是迷你综合指数，跌幅为-0.23%。 商品期货 出版 8 3 3 8 8 5 5 3 8 8 5 3 8 8 5 ...

Core Viewpoint - In July 2025, major asset performance was led by the ChiNext Index, followed by oil and the CSI 500, with a general upward trend in risk assets, particularly in Chinese markets, while commodities showed mixed results [1][2][14]. Group 1: Asset Performance - In July, risk assets mostly rose, with Chinese assets leading the way and U.S. stocks reaching new highs, while domestic commodities experienced low-level increases [2][14]. - The performance of commodities was predominantly positive, with oil prices rising due to multiple favorable factors, while copper prices retreated due to lower-than-expected copper tariffs [2][17]. - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with technology stocks showing significant resilience due to strong earnings reports [2][19]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Insights - The macroeconomic landscape in July 2025 was characterized by a divergence between hard and soft data in the U.S., while China's soft data indicated a slowdown [4][62]. - The domestic "stock-bond seesaw" effect deepened, with the total A-share index rising by 4.7% in July, while the yield on 10-year government bonds increased by 5.75 basis points to 1.71% [2][32]. Group 3: Key Drivers of Equity Assets - Future drivers for equity assets may include "profitability and risk appetite," with A-shares needing to respond to fundamental factors such as PPI trends and mid-year earnings [5][62]. - The reduction of uncertainties surrounding U.S.-China tariffs could enhance short-term export certainty, as recent high-level trade talks indicated a potential extension of tariff measures [5][62]. - New technological themes, such as advancements in artificial intelligence, are expected to create investment opportunities [5][62]. Group 4: Market Timing Signals - The M1-BCI-PPI timing system indicated a slight improvement in overall positive signals despite a slowdown in actual GDP growth [6][62]. - The stock-bond valuation ratio showed a return to neutrality, suggesting that while equity assets have lost some advantage, the overall score still leans towards equities [7][62]. Group 5: Sector Performance - In July, over 90% of industries in the domestic market reported positive returns, with growth and cyclical sectors leading the gains, particularly in steel, pharmaceuticals, and construction materials [2][32][44]. - The real estate sector saw a widening year-on-year decline in sales, with second-hand home sales showing more resilience compared to new homes [2][42]. Group 6: Commodity Market Dynamics - The commodity market showed a general upward trend in July, with significant increases in domestic pricing for black metals and polysilicon, while international oil and copper prices exhibited mixed performance [17][62]. - The Brent crude oil futures price increased by 7.3% in July, driven by geopolitical factors and tariff negotiations, although it faced a pullback in early August [17][62].