2025 年 11月 25 日 | | | (基本面跟踪) 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单位 | 收盘价(日盘) | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价(夜盘) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 豆油王力 | 几/吨 元/吨 | 8. 486 8. 168 | -0.75% -0. 27% | 8. 454 8. 174 | -0. 38% 0. 07% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9.778 | -0. 39% | 9.788 | 0. 10% | | | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4. 055 | -0. 32% | 4. 063 | 0. 20% | | 期货 | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 50. 48 | -0. 20% | | | | | | 单位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 577. 844 | 8-114593 | 401. 777 | -24. 130 | | | 豆油主力 | 手 | 200. 500 | -120. 156 | 4 ...

3D Printing - A new 3D printing technology developed by Carnegie Mellon University has successfully created microDeltas, miniature delta robots, which could play significant roles in micro-manipulation, micro-assembly, micro-surgery, and wearable haptic devices [1] - The 3D printing market in China is expected to exceed 63 billion yuan in 2024, growing 30 times over the past decade, and is projected to surpass 100 billion yuan by 2029, driving the upstream and downstream industry chain to exceed 300 billion yuan [1] AI Toys - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China is promoting the high-quality development of AI toys, focusing on policy support and product innovation [2] - The domestic toy market retail sales are expected to reach 97.85 billion yuan in 2024, with AI toys, trendy toys, and educational toys being the three core growth engines [2] Down Jacket Prices - The price of down jackets is surging due to a significant increase in the cost of down feathers, with white duck down prices rising from 170,000 yuan per ton to approximately 580,000 yuan [3] - The cost of producing a short adult down jacket has approached 1,000 yuan due to soaring raw material prices [3] MLCC Price Increases - Fenghua Advanced Technology has announced price increases for various MLCC products due to rising costs of raw materials, with price hikes ranging from 5% to 30% [4] - The demand for passive components is being driven by AI servers and electric vehicles, with the usage of MLCCs in AI servers being eight times that of traditional servers [4] Flash Memory Price Increases - Flash wafer prices have seen significant increases, with 1Tb QLC rising by 25% to $12.5 and 512Gb TLC increasing by 38.46% to $9 [5] - NAND product demand is expected to exceed supply, with inventory turnover days decreasing from 135 to 115 days [5] Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure - As of October 2025, the total number of electric vehicle charging facilities in China reached 18.645 million, a year-on-year increase of 54% [6] - The National Development and Reform Commission has launched a plan to double charging service capacity by 2027, which is expected to drive over 200 billion yuan in investment in charging facility manufacturing and construction [6] Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) - The Indian government is set to release a national SAF policy, with aviation fuel demand expected to reach 15-16 million tons by 2030 [7] - SAF prices have been rising, with European SAF prices reaching $2,900-$2,920 per ton, a 58% increase since the beginning of the year [7] Hong Kong-Shenzhen Financial Technology Cooperation - The Hong Kong and Shenzhen governments have announced a plan to establish a global fintech center, aiming to implement over 20 cross-border data verification platforms by the end of 2027 [8] Satellite Launch Success - China successfully launched three satellites for space environment detection and technology verification, marking the 608th flight of the Long March series rockets [8] C919 Aircraft Operations - China Southern Airlines has commenced commercial operations of the domestically produced C919 aircraft on the Guangzhou-Ningbo route, featuring a customized cabin layout [9] Apple Foldable iPhone - Apple is internally testing its first foldable iPhone with a battery capacity of 5,400-5,800mAh, which would surpass the iPhone 17 Pro Max's 5,088mAh [9]

大会还发布了《船用燃料生命周期温室气体强度计算方法》和《船舶年度达到的燃料温室气体强度核验 方法》两项团体标准，将为航运企业低碳转型提供统一量化标尺，也为全球碳治理提供"中国方案"。 11月17日，以"破壁迎变.共促可持续发展"为主题的2025世界航商大会在中国香港开幕。会上，由招商 局工业集团控股企业华商能源科技股份有限公司与上下游产业链联合发起的"国际绿色燃料联盟"(IGFA) 举行成立启动仪式，首批30余家全球产业机构正式合力共建航运脱碳生态圈。 据了解，由于不同国家和地区能源结构、技术水平、政策机制与市场成熟度差异等原因，绿色燃料产业 的发展仍面临着标准不统一、体系不互认、市场机制不完善、产消对接不充分等结构性挑战。国际绿色 燃料联盟的成立有望应对这些挑战。 联盟将依托港澳战略枢纽地位，共同攻坚破解绿色燃料产业"标准不互认、产需不对接、金融工具缺 失"三大瓶颈。下一步，联盟计划搭建绿色燃料产业信息交互平台，研究和辅助绿色燃料产业政策制 定，牵引绿色燃料示范项目协同和创新，参与制定绿色燃料行业标准和规则，促进绿色金融与碳市场创 新联动，助力香港成为国际绿色燃料贸易中心。 《全球航运公司净零路径实践指南》 ...

陈泓缣指出，该工厂10月已正式投产，作为马来西亚首个可产出ISCC CORSIA及ISCC EU双认证SAF的 核心产能，其35万吨/年产能需稳定原料供应。 马来西亚棕榈油局数据显示，废食用油出口近年增长显著：2024年出口量达46.5万吨，较2023年的31万 吨大幅提升。长期来看，原料需求压力将进一步放大。陈泓缣预计，2028年第三季度彭亨州投产的马来 西亚国家石油公司、埃尼能源及Euglena合资生物精炼厂将带来65万吨/年原料处理能力。届时两座工厂 合计原料需求达100万吨/年，马来西亚将与国际买家直接争夺全球废食用油资源。陈泓缣强调，废食用 油供应链的核心挑战在于原料收集。马来西亚需扩大家庭及企业废食用油收集基础设施建设，同时需避 免影响生物柴油等其他行业供应，且不能依赖未经认证的进口原料。 中化新网讯 近日，马来西亚种植与大宗商品部副部长陈泓缣表示，随着柔佛州EcoCeres可持续航空燃 料(SAF)工厂逐步释放产能，该国2026年废食用油(UCO)出口量将面临压力。 ...

Industry Overview - The petrochemical industry is cyclical, with net profits in the SW basic chemical sector reaching a historical high in 2021, followed by a downturn. By 2024, industry net profits are expected to be only 52% of 2021 levels, but some sub-industries are beginning to recover, with a 10.56% year-on-year increase in net profits for the first three quarters [1] Supply Side - Investment in fixed assets for the chemical raw materials and products manufacturing industry turned negative starting June 2025, with capital expenditures in the SW basic chemical sector and several sub-industries declining for multiple consecutive quarters. The current expansion cycle in the industry is nearing its end. The "anti-involution" policy introduced in July aims to address low-price disorderly competition and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, with responses from sub-industries like pesticides, petrochemicals, and PTA polyester [2] Demand Side - Traditional demand is expected to see a mild recovery due to global central banks entering a rate-cutting cycle and pausing balance sheet reductions, supported by monetary and fiscal policy stimuli. Emerging demand is driven by sectors such as new energy and AI, with key chemical materials being crucial for technological upgrades. The company is optimistic about the rapid increase in new energy storage capacity impacting iron phosphate and PVDF, AI industry growth affecting high-frequency and high-speed electronic resins, and the aviation industry's decarbonization efforts boosting demand for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) [3] Overseas Capacity Reduction - The European chemical industry is experiencing a wave of plant shutdowns due to high energy costs and aging facilities. Currently, China's chemical product sales account for over 40% of the global market. The domestic petrochemical industry chain is well-established, with many chemical products being highly competitive globally. In the context of accelerated overseas capacity reduction and anticipated demand recovery, the company believes that Chinese chemical enterprises will continue to increase their global market share, effectively alleviating excess capacity [4]

国泰航空中国内地公共事务及品牌营销总经理孙悦怡表示，目前，国泰已在香港、洛杉矶、伦敦、新加 坡等全球多个航点推行SAF加注，同时积极携手中石化、中航油、空客等上下游合作伙伴和中国民航大 学等高校科研伙伴，从产学研用的全方位推进国产SAF创新提速与应用落地。 可持续航空燃料(SAF)是以废弃油脂等可再生原料制成的、可直接应用于现有航空发动机的清洁燃料。 因其不仅能减少飞机在飞行过程中的碳排放，同时在全生命周期，即原料生产过程中也有出色的减碳表 现，被航空业视为实现减排目标的必然选择。据国际航空运输协会(IATA)预测，到2050年航空业65%的 碳减排将通过使用SAF来实现。在无需对现有飞行器及航空基础设施进行大幅改造的基础上，使用SAF 将比使用传统航空燃料减碳80%。 报告预测，从经济潜力来看，到2050年全球SAF需求将超过3.6亿吨，而中国在资源方面具有显著优势 ——餐厨废油和农林废弃物的数量相对充足，新能源装机容量也很高，这些均为HEFA、AtJ、PtL等技 术提供了原料保障，有望将资源优势转化为产业竞争力。此外，SAF产业与新能源产业的耦合发展潜力 巨大，有助于推动循环经济的发展。 然而，中国的SA ...

Macro and Strategy - The macroeconomic review indicates a shift from "disconnection between stocks and bonds" to "stocks and bonds being sourced from the same origin," highlighting a year where stock performance outpaced bonds, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising from 3351 points at the end of the previous year to around 4000 points by the end of October 2025 [7] - The report discusses the AI wave, emphasizing that it is not a repeat of the 2000 internet bubble, as the current market is driven by profitable "cash cow" companies rather than speculative stocks [9][10] Industry and Company Insights - The sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) industry is receiving a boost from the EU's announcement of a €3.3 billion investment plan to support decarbonization in aviation and shipping, with a projected SAF demand of 358 million tons by 2050 [10][11] - The report highlights the strong performance of the consumer services sector, particularly in Hainan, where duty-free shopping saw a 35% year-on-year increase following the implementation of new policies [12] - New Industry (300832.SZ) reported a revenue increase of 0.39% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, with a notable improvement in overseas business gross margins surpassing domestic levels [19][20] - Xiangyu Medical (688626.SH) showed a revenue growth of 6.00% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, although net profit faced pressure due to increased R&D and marketing investments [23][24] - The report on Steady Medical (300888.SZ) indicates a 30.1% year-on-year revenue growth in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by a strong performance in both medical consumables and health consumer products [26][27] Financial Engineering - The financial engineering report notes that 5401 A-share companies disclosed their Q3 2025 financial results, with many analysts highlighting significant earnings surprises in their assessments [31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) industry, indicating expected performance above the market average [2][29]. Core Insights - The European Union (EU) has launched a €3.3 billion investment plan to support the decarbonization of the aviation and shipping sectors, focusing on the development of renewable and low-carbon fuel production systems [3][10]. - The demand for SAF is primarily driven by policy initiatives, with the EU aiming for a 2% blending target by 2025 and a long-term goal of 70% by 2050. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) projects SAF demand to reach 358 million tons by 2050, indicating significant growth potential [4][6]. - The EU's ambitious decarbonization goals require an estimated €100 billion investment by 2035 to meet future SAF demand, with the recent investment plan signaling a commitment to stabilize investor confidence and expand the renewable fuel production and usage [4][10][14]. Summary by Sections Investment Plan and Policy Framework - The EU's Sustainable Transport Investment Plan outlines a roadmap for promoting the use of renewable and low-carbon fuels, aiming for a 90% reduction in transport-related carbon emissions by 2050. The plan includes a target of 20% SAF blending by 2035 and requires approximately €100 billion in investments, with 60% allocated to aviation fuels [10][14]. - The plan also establishes a mechanism to stabilize returns for producers and reduce investment risks, enhancing international cooperation to boost global renewable fuel production [16] Market Dynamics and Pricing - SAF prices have surged due to high production costs compared to traditional jet fuel, with the price of high-end SAF in China reaching $2,650 per ton as of November 10, 2023, a 47.22% increase from the beginning of the year [4][18]. - The scarcity of SAF raw materials, such as used cooking oil (UCO), is expected to sustain high market demand and pricing, as the EU's mandatory blending targets remain unchanged [4][18]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends investing in 嘉澳环保 (Jiaao Environmental Protection) and 卓越新能 (Zhuoyue New Energy). Jiaao Environmental Protection is a leading domestic SAF producer with a capacity of 500,000 tons and has received export approval. Zhuoyue New Energy is a major biodiesel producer with plans to expand its SAF production capacity [5][23]. Financial Performance - Companies in the renewable fuel sector, such as Neste, have reported significant growth in their operations, with a notable increase in production and sales volumes, reflecting the rising demand and prices for renewable fuels [20].

Core Insights - The U.S. biofuel production capacity is expected to grow slowly, with only a 3% increase from early 2024 to early 2025, primarily due to a significant decline in the capacity growth of renewable diesel and other biofuels [1] - The annual production capacity of renewable diesel and other biofuels will only increase by 391 million gallons in 2024, which is less than one-third of the increases seen in 2022 and 2023 [1] - The expansion of the Phillips 66 Rodeo refinery and the new Renewable Fuels LLC plant in Bakersfield are the only two new capacity additions, with the Rodeo facility becoming the second-largest renewable diesel plant in the U.S. after its upgrade [1] Group 1 - The capacity growth from the Rodeo expansion and the Bakersfield plant is offset by the closure of four facilities, which reflects changes in biofuel and oil refining profit margins since 2020 [2] - The closures include Monroe Energy's facility in Pennsylvania, Chevron's in California, and Vertex Energy and Jaxon Energy's plants in Alabama and Mississippi, respectively [2] - The decline in biofuel profitability and the rise in oil refining profits have led to a slowdown in renewable diesel capacity investments in the coming years [2] Group 2 - There is an increased focus on Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) in 2024, which is categorized under "other biofuels" and serves as a substitute for petroleum aviation fuel [3] - The Phillips 66 Rodeo plant can convert approximately 150 million gallons per year of renewable diesel capacity to SAF, while the Diamond Green Diesel plant can convert about 235 million gallons per year [3] - Despite a slight decline in biodiesel capacity due to low profitability, ethanol production capacity is on the rise, currently accounting for 73% of total U.S. biofuel capacity, primarily driven by stable domestic consumption and increased exports [3]

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong and China Gas Company Limited (Towngas) has achieved a significant upgrade in its ESG rating from "AA+" to the highest level "AAA," ranking first among Hong Kong utility companies, reflecting its leadership in the industry [1][3]. Group 1: ESG Rating Improvement - Towngas's upgrade to "AAA" highlights its strong performance in environmental, social, and governance (ESG) criteria, particularly in environmental aspects [3]. - The company has been consistently included in the Hang Seng Sustainable Development Index series since 2011, making it one of the longest-standing constituents of the index [3]. Group 2: Commitment to Sustainable Development - Towngas is actively developing green energy businesses, focusing on green methanol, hydrogen, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) to accelerate the transition to green transportation [3]. - The company collaborates with various stakeholders to promote carbon reduction across the value chain through initiatives like sustainable performance-linked supplier payment schemes [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Towngas plans to deepen its investments in renewable energy and low-carbon technologies, aligning with the national "3060" dual carbon goals to contribute to a sustainable future [4].