（原标题：中银理财总裁崔海涛：以专业践初心，以匠心守财富） 律回春晖渐，骏业新启程。回望过往，我们与您同心致远、共赴华章，依托国有大行的深厚底蕴与稳健 根基，兼具市场化资管机构的专业活力与创新动能，伴您穿越市场周期、守护财富安盈。中银理财自成 立以来，始终为投资者创造优质收益，积极做好"五篇大文章"，服务于投资者财富管理和实体经济融资 需求。时序更替，2026年作为"十五五"规划开局之年，宏观经济稳中向好，资本市场万象更新，蕴藏着 全新机遇和时代回响。 展望宏观经济运行趋势，国际形势在大国博弈中深刻演变，我国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜力 大，全要素劳动生产率和产业竞争力有望继续提升，科技自立自强将迈向新征程。供给端，经过前期发 展，我国已经建立起全球规模最庞大、门类最齐全、配套最完善的产业体系，产业链供应链优势将长期 存在；需求端，在深入实施提振新消费专项行动、投资于物和投资于人紧密结合等政策支持下，经济潜 能有望进一步挖掘，不断巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头。宏观经济稳健回升也为金融市场提供了广阔的发 展空间，为投资者带来更多投资机遇。 四是依托专业力量，把握时代机遇。面对复杂的市场环境，选择专业的研判与陪伴 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the bond market will enter a "game" era in 2025, driven by increased fiscal policy and a focus on "debt reduction + development," with the deficit rate expected to rise to 4% [5][12] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for a nominal GDP growth rate of around 5.5% to achieve a per capita GDP of $20,000 to $30,000 by 2035, necessitating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.6%-7.5% from 2026 to 2035 [31][32] - The report emphasizes the need for a shift in investment strategies towards a focus on "coupon and leverage" rather than solely capital gains, as the market lacks clear trends [5][21] Group 1: Supply and Monetary Policy - The fiscal policy will continue to expand, with a focus on "debt reduction + development," leading to a significant increase in special bond issuance [7][12] - The monetary policy will maintain a cautious approach, with expectations of 1-2 rate cuts in 2026 to support fiscal efforts and alleviate bank liabilities [5][13] - The bond market is expected to face challenges due to a high supply of government bonds in the second and third quarters of 2026, which may test market sentiment [5][12] Group 2: Economic Growth and Internal Demand - The report highlights a shift in global monetary policy towards differentiation, with domestic growth needing to focus more on internal demand expansion [32][40] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of innovation-driven growth and the establishment of a unified national market to enhance economic efficiency [31][32] - The expected economic growth will require a stable inflation rate and a focus on enhancing internal growth dynamics to recover from the impacts of previous economic models [31][32] Group 3: Investment Strategy and Market Dynamics - The report suggests prioritizing duration control in investment strategies for 2026, focusing on capturing short-term opportunities and structural adjustments in bond types [5][21] - The changing landscape of asset pricing and institutional demand may lead to differentiated investment behaviors among banks, insurance companies, and funds [5][12] - The report warns against a mechanical extension of duration for capital gains, advocating for a more active management approach to enhance returns [5][21]

Core Insights - The recent significant decline in credit bond prices has disrupted the market, leading to substantial weekly losses for many pure bond private equity funds, with some experiencing declines of over 9% [1][2] - The fundamental risks associated with these credit bonds were anticipated by institutions and investors, raising questions about why many private equity funds heavily invested in such bonds [1][2] - The current environment has forced bond private equity managers to seek transformation, exploring macro strategies and multi-asset allocations to adapt to the changing market dynamics [1][5] Market Reaction - On November 25, investor concerns peaked as many private equity funds reported significant net value declines, with pure bond products experiencing a drop of over 3% from November 24 to 28 [2] - The adjustment in credit bonds was triggered by a company disclosing a meeting to discuss bond extension, leading to rapid price adjustments in related bonds [2] - Notably, several well-known bond private equity products saw net value declines exceeding 4% during this period, indicating a broader market impact [2] Industry Challenges - The average yield for medium to long-term pure bond funds has dropped to around 1%, with some funds achieving up to 4% by taking on more credit risk, but future yields are expected to be challenging [3] - The interest in traditional pure fixed-income products has decreased as investors shift towards equity and other asset classes, reflecting a clear trend of marginalization for fixed-income strategies [4] Transformation Strategies - In response to the challenging environment, many bond private equity firms are pivoting towards "fixed income plus" or macro strategies to enhance returns [5] - Some firms have begun to diversify their investment strategies by incorporating equity investments and exploring opportunities in convertible bonds and cross-border investments [5] - The trend indicates that equity assets are becoming a focal point for bond private equity firms as they seek to improve product yield characteristics [5] Market Outlook - The low interest rate environment is expected to persist, making bond investments increasingly difficult, while the stock market may benefit from ongoing capital inflows and positive policy signals [6]