Core Viewpoint - The Beijing second-hand housing market is experiencing a "small spring" revival in early 2026, indicated by increased transaction volumes and price stabilization after a prolonged period of stagnation [3][7][8]. Group 1: Market Activity - In the first two months of 2026, the net signing of second-hand residential properties in Beijing exceeded 23,000 units, surpassing the average of 21,000 units for the same period over the past decade [3][7]. - As of March 22, 2026, the net signing volume reached 12,182 units, exceeding the total for February [3][7]. - A real estate agent noted a significant increase in transaction activity, particularly in school district properties, with some units selling within two days [6][10]. Group 2: Price Trends - The price of second-hand homes in Beijing has shown signs of stabilization, with a reported average increase of nearly 100,000 yuan since the beginning of the year, and a 2.4% increase in the first two months [8][9]. - The number of cities with rising second-hand home prices has increased, with Beijing being one of the few cities where both new and second-hand home prices have risen [8][9]. - The current market conditions indicate a shift from a previous high inventory of listings to a more balanced supply, which is contributing to price stabilization [9][15]. Group 3: Buyer Demographics - The primary buyers in the Beijing second-hand housing market are those looking for properties priced below 3 million yuan, which account for approximately 70% of transactions [11][12]. - The proportion of transactions for homes priced below 2 million yuan has increased significantly, indicating a growing demand from first-time buyers [11][12]. - Recent policy changes have made it easier for first-time buyers to enter the market, further driving demand for second-hand homes [12][13]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The sustainability of the current "small spring" market is contingent on the trend of new listings; a reduction in listings could maintain market heat and stabilize prices [15][16]. - Analysts suggest that the revival in Beijing's market may signal a broader recovery across other cities in China, as many regions have experienced significant price corrections [16].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a significant rebound during the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April," with major cities like Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen showing increased transaction volumes and stable prices [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Shanghai's second-hand housing market saw explosive growth, with a weekly transaction volume of 7,233 units from March 9 to March 15, marking the highest weekly record since 2021 [3]. - Beijing's transaction volume reached 4,244 units in the week of January 26 to February 1, a more than 30% increase compared to the week before the new policy [4]. - Guangzhou's second-hand housing transactions exceeded 4,000 units in the first two weeks of March, with a peak daily transaction of 271 units on March 15 [5]. - Shenzhen's cumulative transactions surpassed 4,000 units, with new residential sales increasing by 38.9% and second-hand sales rising by 58.6% compared to February [5]. Group 2: Policy Impact - The surge in Shanghai's transactions is attributed to new policies aimed at stabilizing the market, including relaxed social security requirements and increased loan limits [3]. - In Beijing, the effects of policies implemented in December continue to stimulate market activity, with significant increases in buyer interest following the reopening of sales offices [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - There is a noticeable "hold" mentality among second-hand property owners, leading to stable prices as sellers are reluctant to lower prices despite market improvements [7]. - In contrast, first-hand property developers are adopting a "price for volume" strategy, with some projects offering significant discounts to attract buyers [7]. Group 4: Land Market Dynamics - In Shanghai, recent land sales showed a cautious approach from developers, with only one out of three plots sold at a premium, indicating a careful decision-making process in the current market environment [8]. - The overall land market is expected to remain at a low level, with selective hotspots showing some activity, as developers focus on strategic investments [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Shenzhen real estate market is experiencing a "small spring" in March, particularly in the second-hand housing sector, which is driving market sentiment recovery [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The second-hand housing market in Shenzhen has shown significant improvement, with a 45% week-on-week increase in signed contracts as of March 17, marking a one-year weekly high [4]. - New home subscriptions also increased by 57% week-on-week, indicating a faster pace of sales [4]. - Both new and second-hand housing transaction volumes have risen for three consecutive weeks, reflecting a recovery in market confidence and trading activity [4]. Group 2: Buyer Sentiment - More second-hand homeowners are gaining confidence, with many opting to rent out their properties instead of selling, believing that the potential for further price declines is limited [5]. - High-quality school district properties are outperforming other types of housing, with buyers actively entering the market [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The recovery in second-hand housing transactions is expected to provide crucial support for the new housing market [6]. - As supply adjustments and inventory pressures ease, sustained buyer demand could lead to a rebalancing of supply and demand in the Shenzhen real estate market [6]. - Recent data shows a slight decrease in the second-hand housing price index, with a 0.4% decline in February, but the rate of decline has narrowed compared to January [7].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in major cities is experiencing a significant recovery, particularly in the second-hand housing sector, driven by strong buyer enthusiasm and supportive policies [4][6][12]. Group 1: Second-hand Housing Market Recovery - Shanghai's second-hand housing market saw a record high of 1,472 transactions on March 14, 2026, marking the highest daily net signing this year [5]. - The total transaction volume in Shanghai for March is conservatively estimated to reach 27,000 units, with potential to hit 30,000 units, a level not seen since 2021 [6][10]. - In Beijing, the second-hand market is also showing signs of recovery, with over 5,700 net signings in the first half of March, surpassing the average for the same period in the past decade [6][7]. - Shenzhen's second-hand market is experiencing a "mini-spring," with a 132% week-on-week increase in transaction volume during the first week of March, reaching the highest level since March 2025 [8]. - Guangzhou's second-hand market is rebounding, with a 35% increase in transaction volume and a 12% increase in viewing numbers from March 9 to 15 [9][10]. Group 2: Price Stabilization and Recovery - The continuous increase in transaction volume is contributing to price stabilization in the second-hand housing market, with prices in Beijing and Shanghai showing month-on-month increases of 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively, ending previous downward trends [7]. - In Shenzhen, the average listing prices for popular second-hand properties have begun to rise, with over half of the top 20 properties seeing price increases [8]. Group 3: New Housing Market Trends - The new housing market is still in a recovery phase, with significant differentiation among cities, particularly favoring improvement-type projects [11][12]. - High-end projects in Shanghai, such as the Poly Expo Tianyue, have seen substantial sales, with over 290 million yuan in sales in the first week of March [12]. - In Guangzhou, luxury projects are performing well, with some properties experiencing a 200% increase in sales compared to previous weeks [12]. - The overall new housing market is still under pressure, but signs of structural recovery are emerging, particularly in first-tier cities where prices have stabilized [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in Guangzhou and Shenzhen is showing signs of recovery, with increasing buyer confidence and a potential "small spring" in the market expected in March and April [2][6]. Group 1: Market Trends - In Guangzhou, the recent high-priced transaction of the Tianhe Racecourse land, totaling 23.6 billion yuan with a premium rate of 26.6%, has boosted viewing and transaction volumes [4]. - Over 30 new housing projects in Guangzhou have been launched or promoted in early March, indicating a strong market response [5]. - The second-hand housing market in Shenzhen has seen a significant increase, with a 132% week-on-week rise in signed contracts, marking the highest level since March 2025 [7]. Group 2: Buyer Sentiment - Buyer expectations are beginning to stabilize, with many purchasers willing to enter the market only if prices are reasonable and products are available [5][8]. - The decrease in second-hand housing listings by 3.3% year-on-year reflects a gradual improvement in market confidence, reducing irrational selling [7]. - The demand for quality school district homes and affordable second-hand properties is notably increasing, indicating a shift in buyer preferences [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The Guangzhou Zhongyuan Research Development Department predicts a concentrated launch of new projects in March and April, likely leading to a "red opening" in the market [5]. - Experts anticipate that March will be a peak sales season due to various factors such as post-holiday demand and developers' efforts to achieve strong performance [8]. - The overall sentiment in the real estate market is expected to improve further, with ongoing policy support and a focus on enhancing transaction efficiency [8].

Core Viewpoint - The "Shanghai Seven Measures" policy is significantly boosting the second-hand housing market in Shanghai, leading to a notable increase in transaction volumes following the post-holiday recovery period [1][5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - On March 7, Shanghai's second-hand housing market recorded a single-day transaction of 1,324 units, the highest in 315 days, with a total of 8,467 units signed from March 1 to March 10, indicating a potential monthly total of 25,000 units [1][6]. - The second-hand housing market is experiencing a surge in activity, with significant weekend transactions and a high daily volume even during weekdays [1][3]. Group 2: Policy Impact - The "Shanghai Seven Measures" introduced on February 25 include various supportive policies such as shortening the social security duration for non-local buyers and increasing the maximum public housing loan limit, which are seen as catalysts for the current market upturn [5][6]. - The measures have led to a rapid increase in transactions, with daily sales jumping from over 500 units to over 800 units shortly after the policy announcement [6]. Group 3: Buyer Behavior - The current market dynamics show that first-time homebuyers are driving the demand, particularly for lower-priced properties, with 68.88% of transactions in February being for homes priced below 3 million yuan [6][8]. - The affordability of prices and the strong adaptability of the new policies have made it easier for buyers to enter the market, with many perceiving the rental yield as reasonable [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the ongoing effects of the "Shanghai Seven Measures" will continue to support the second-hand market, which in turn is expected to positively influence the new housing market in the coming months [10][11]. - The second-hand market's recovery is anticipated to create additional demand for new homes, with expectations of a gradual recovery in the new housing market by the second quarter of the year [11].

Summary of Beijing Real Estate Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the Beijing real estate market, particularly the second-hand housing sector, with insights into pricing trends, policy impacts, and market dynamics. Key Points Current Market Conditions - The average price of second-hand homes in Beijing has decreased by approximately 39% from the peak in March 2023, with the current average around 41,500 yuan per square meter as of February 2026 [1][7] - The rental yield for older properties in core areas has rebounded to 3%, indicating a potential price support level [1] - Following the policy changes at the end of 2025, weekly transactions have increased to around 2,000 units, showing improved market activity [4] Policy Changes - The policy adjustment on December 24, 2025, reduced the social security or tax payment requirement for home purchases from three years to two years within the Fifth Ring Road, and from two years to one year outside it [2] - The market showed no significant improvement prior to the policy change, prompting further adjustments to stimulate transactions [2] Inventory and Sales Dynamics - The inventory of listed properties on the Lianjia platform decreased from 164,000 units in September 2025 to 144,000 units by December 2025, primarily due to sellers withdrawing listings in response to price expectations [5] - The actual monthly transaction volume is estimated at around 11,000 units, based on Lianjia's market share of approximately 65% [3] Buyer Behavior and Market Segmentation - The proportion of investors in the market has dropped to below 5%, with demand now primarily driven by first-time buyers and those upgrading their homes [1] - The decision-making process for improvement buyers is lengthened due to the "sell first, buy later" strategy, focusing more on location and product quality [1][8] Price Trends and Future Outlook - A slight price increase is expected in March-April 2026, driven by seasonal demand and school district transitions, with significant activity anticipated in the academic year [10] - The market is expected to cool down after May 2026, as historical trends indicate a seasonal decline in transactions during the summer months [28] Regional Price Differentiation - Price stability is observed in core and school district areas, while prices in suburban regions continue to decline [13] - The performance of different districts varies significantly, with core areas showing resilience against price drops compared to suburban locations [13] Investment Insights - Investors are currently focusing on properties with stable rental yields, particularly in core areas, while speculative investments in high-end properties are limited [15] - The market is characterized by a shift towards demand-driven purchases rather than speculative investments, with over 95% of transactions motivated by genuine needs [15] Recommendations for Buyers - Buyers are advised to focus on product quality in new homes, while second-hand home purchases should prioritize location and liquidity [16] - For families considering school district properties, timing and specific district regulations are crucial for making informed decisions [17][18] Conclusion - The Beijing real estate market is experiencing a complex interplay of policy changes, buyer behavior shifts, and regional price variations, with a cautious outlook for the near future as seasonal trends and market dynamics evolve [28][29]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable outlook for the real estate market, suggesting a potential "small spring" recovery in key cities during 2026 [3][5]. Core Insights - The real estate market is entering a new phase focused on stabilizing expectations and shortening adjustment periods, with a gradual release of pent-up demand expected as holiday factors dissipate [5][7]. - During the 2026 Spring Festival, key cities experienced typical seasonal low transaction volumes, with new residential sales in 21 major cities totaling approximately 100,000 square meters, showing a slight decrease of 2% compared to the previous year [4][7]. - Various promotional activities were launched by real estate companies during the holiday, contributing to a buildup of market momentum for the upcoming recovery [4][5]. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Performance - In Shanghai, new home sales increased significantly due to favorable policies and strong promotional efforts by developers [4][13]. - Beijing's core projects maintained high interest, while second-hand home viewings were affected by travel and returning home for the holidays [12][13]. - In Guangzhou, over 140 projects offered promotions, leading to increased visitor numbers, particularly from returning residents [14]. - Shenzhen saw over 30 new projects with substantial discounts and promotional offers, attracting interest from both local and Hong Kong buyers [14]. - Chengdu's market remained subdued, with limited new supply and a focus on promotional activities for returning home buyers [16]. - Wuhan initiated a "Warm Home" campaign to stimulate demand, but overall market activity was cautious [17]. - In Tianjin, the new home market focused on inventory digestion, while the second-hand market showed signs of recovery driven by school district demand [19]. - Zhengzhou's market saw increased activity due to promotional efforts and favorable weather conditions, with core areas performing well [19].

Summary of Shenzhen Real Estate Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the Shenzhen real estate market, highlighting recent trends in transaction volume, pricing, and market dynamics. Key Points and Arguments Market Recovery Indicators - Strong recovery indicators in Shenzhen's real estate market with weekly second-hand housing inquiries exceeding 10,000, the highest since October 2025 [1] - Daily viewings on March 1 reached 2,215, marking the highest since March 2025 [1][2] Price Trends - February saw a 7% month-over-month increase in average transaction prices, driven by increased demand for high-priced properties (8 million to 10 million) [1][3] - The average listing price for second-hand homes was 6.04 million, while the average transaction price was 6.2 million, indicating a rare occurrence of listing prices being lower than transaction prices [4] Demand Dynamics - Increased demand for property upgrades and investments, particularly in areas with rental yields above 3%, such as Nanshan, Futian, and Luohu [1][6] - Significant growth in the rental market, with viewing volumes increasing by over 90% compared to early February, and transaction volumes reaching a five-month high [1][3] Future Market Variables - The key variable for future price stabilization is the potential reduction in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR). If transaction volumes remain around 7,000 units per month and LPR is lowered, prices are expected to stabilize [1][9] - Anticipation of government subsidies for property exchanges in Nanshan, potentially enhancing market activity [1][18] Market Segmentation - The market is expected to experience further segmentation, with core urban areas likely to see slight price increases, while non-core areas may face price declines [10] - Properties in non-core areas that maintain value are typically those with superior living quality and cost-effectiveness [11] Buyer Profiles - The buyer demographic for high-priced properties (8 million to 10 million) is predominantly local residents, with over 80% being upgrade buyers [12][14] - Recent demand is driven by two main groups: those seeking school district properties and first-time buyers, with a notable increase in new clients entering the market [11][13] Rental Market Insights - Current rental prices are showing slight increases, with overall stability in the rental market. The average rental price remains around 73 yuan per square meter [15][19] - Family rentals dominate the market, accounting for approximately 60% to 70% of demand, while young individuals represent about 20% to 30% [16] Conversion Rates and Market Activity - The conversion rate from viewings to transactions for second-hand homes is approximately 6%, indicating a moderate level of market activity compared to historical highs [17] - The ongoing "small spring" market performance is expected to be at least on par with last year, with high viewing volumes suggesting sustained interest [17] Policy Expectations - Key policy expectations include a reduction in LPR to lower borrowing costs, with limited impact anticipated from loosening purchase restrictions [20] - If purchase restrictions are relaxed in most areas, a short-term increase in transaction volumes of 10% to 20% is expected, particularly in core areas [20] Price Stability and Future Outlook - An increase in transaction volumes is likely to lead to price stabilization, with potential for slight price increases in response to rising demand [21] Additional Important Insights - The market is currently characterized by a mix of local and external demand, with a notable interest from high-net-worth individuals in the luxury segment [14] - The overall sentiment in the market is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of continued recovery driven by both local economic factors and broader market conditions [10][18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate sector [7] Core Insights - The recent policy adjustments in Shanghai, including the relaxation of housing purchase restrictions, are expected to stimulate demand and support a mild recovery in the housing market, referred to as a "small spring" [15][19] - The overall sentiment in the real estate market remains cautious, with expectations for further policy support to stabilize market confidence [3][19] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The A-share real estate sector increased by 0.60%, while the Hong Kong real estate sector rose by 2.85%, with the latter outperforming the broader market [20][31] - The issuance of real estate credit bonds totaled 5.49 billion yuan, with a net financing amount of -194.65 billion yuan as of February 27, 2026 [20][38] Policy Adjustments - Shanghai's recent policy changes include reducing the social security and individual income tax requirements for non-local residents to purchase homes, which is expected to expand the buyer pool [15][16] - The maximum loan amount for first-time homebuyers using housing provident funds has been increased from 1.6 million yuan to 2.4 million yuan, further incentivizing home purchases [16] Housing Market Trends - The transaction volume for new homes and second-hand homes has seen significant year-on-year declines of 25.22% and 28.61%, respectively, indicating ongoing market challenges [6] - However, the price decline for second-hand homes is narrowing, suggesting a potential stabilization in the market [17] Land Market Dynamics - The supply of land in 100 major cities increased by 4.34%, while transaction volume decreased by 10.98%, with a notable drop in first-tier cities [5] - The premium rate for land transactions has increased by 19.55%, indicating a competitive bidding environment [5] REITs Market Performance - The REITs index decreased by 0.87%, with the property REITs index down by 1.48% [40][43] - The total transaction volume for REITs was 7.09 billion yuan, with property REITs accounting for 3.51 billion yuan of this total [53] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three areas within the real estate sector: commercial real estate (e.g., New Town Holdings, China Resources Mixc), second-hand brokerage (e.g., I Love My Home, Beike), and property services (e.g., Greentown Service) [19]