研究助理 董晓宇 dongxiaoyu@cmschina.com.cn 证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2026 年 01 月 07 日 政策技术双驱动，商业航天赛道的指数化投资机遇 ——永赢国证商用卫星通信产业 ETF 投资价值分析 在科技革命与产业升级浪潮下，商业航天作为新质生产力的重要代表，已成国 家重点扶持的战略赛道。政策支持与技术突破双重驱动下，行业加速迈入爆发 期。永赢国证商用卫星通信产业 ETF 率先布局该赛道，精准跟踪聚焦商业航天 核心环节的国证商用卫星通信产业指数，为投资者高效把握产业红利提供便捷 途径。 任瞳 S1090519080004 rentong@cmschina.com.cn 刘凯 S1090524120001 liukai11@cmschina.com.cn 风险提示：本报告仅作为投资参考，基金产品过往业绩并不预示其未来表现， 亦不构成投资收益的保证或投资建议。 专题报告 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 q 商业航天是以市场为主导、具备明确盈利模式的技术与资本密集型产业， 涵盖卫星制造、火箭发射、卫星应用等领域，形成了 B 端工程服务与 C 端 规模化应用并行的盈利模式。相较于传统航天，其 ...

Market Performance - The Sci-Tech 50 Index decreased by 0.59% and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.82% over the last five trading days, while the large-cap value index rose by 0.01% and the large-cap growth index declined by 0.39% [1] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index increased by 0.20%, and the small-cap index represented by the CSI 2000 rose by 1.09%, with defense and military, as well as oil and petrochemical sectors performing well, while telecommunications and comprehensive sectors lagged [1] Valuation Levels - As of December 31, 2025, the static PE ratio of the CSI All Share Index is at the 82nd percentile, with the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 both at 75%, and the ChiNext Index close to 58% [1] - The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are at 62% and 64% respectively, indicating that the ChiNext Index's valuation is relatively at the historical median level [1] Fund Flows - In the last five trading days, ETF inflows amounted to 25.6 billion yuan, and the margin trading balance increased by approximately 23.8 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 208.23 billion yuan across the two markets [2] Thematic Investment - The latest thematic allocation includes sectors such as chemicals, non-bank financials, and satellite communications, specifically focusing on sub-indices like the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Index, the National Index for Commercial Satellite Communications, and the CSI 300 Non-Bank Financial Index [2][3] AI and Machine Learning Insights - A convolutional neural network (CNN) model has been utilized to analyze charted price and volume data, mapping learned features to industry thematic sectors, indicating a trend towards AI-driven investment strategies [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The development of 6G is an inevitable trend, and countries are actively involved in its R & D. Satellites, as the aerospace infrastructure in the 6G era, will drive a new round of network construction capital expenditure. The commercial aerospace industry has achieved a closed - loop in the entire industrial chain, and the number of direct - connected satellite mobile phone users is expected to increase significantly [4][9]. - The Guozheng Commercial Satellite Communication Industry Index has high - quality characteristics that support high R & D investment in satellite communication. Since 2024, it has outperformed comparable indices under the background of developing new - quality productivity [4]. - The Yongying Guozheng Commercial Satellite Communication Industry ETF (159206) is a highly scarce product. Compared with comparable ETFs, it has the largest scale [3][61]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Satellite Communication - **6G R & D and Global Competition**: With the 5G pattern settled, countries are actively competing for the right to speak in 6G. China started 6G forward - looking R & D in 2019 and launched the world's first 6G satellite in 2023. Many countries and regions around the world have also carried out 6G R & D activities [9]. - **Satellite Internet Industry Clusters**: In China, satellite internet industry clusters are blooming in multiple locations across the country. Beijing and Shanghai have comprehensive industrial clusters, while Sichuan and Chongqing cover core supporting and application of the satellite industrial chain. Hainan and Shandong cover commercial space launches [12]. - **6G - Driven Network Construction**: In the 6G era, satellites will combine with ground networks to form a space - ground integrated communication network. With the issuance of satellite internet licenses by the three major operators in 2025, 6G is expected to drive a new round of network construction capital expenditure [15]. - **6G Vision and Features**: The 6G vision framework proposal was passed in June 2023. The 6G development is divided into three stages, and it defines six scenarios and four design principles. 6G is expected to have three characteristics: space - air - land - sea integrated communication, human - machine - thing intelligent interconnection, and the blurring of the boundaries between the real physical world and the virtual digital world [20][22]. - **Commercial Aerospace Development Status**: China's first commercial launch site (Hainan Commercial Launch) completed its first launch mission in November 2024, achieving a closed - loop in the entire commercial aerospace industrial chain. Rocket carrying capacity is continuously increasing, and constellation networking is accelerating. The number of direct - connected satellite mobile phone users is expected to reach 350 million by 2030 [23][24]. 3.2 Guozheng Commercial Satellite Communication Industry Index - **Index Compilation Method**: The index selects 50 listed companies' securities from the A - share market whose business involves commercial satellite manufacturing, launch, operation, and satellite ground equipment and communication services. The weight of samples related to commercial satellite manufacturing and launch should be no less than 50% in total, and the index is adjusted semi - annually [25][27]. - **Weight and Market Value Distribution**: The index's weight is concentrated in the top ten component stocks, and the heavy - weight stocks are mostly from the communication equipment and defense military - electronics industries. The average free - floating market value of the component stocks is 14.32 billion yuan, and the average total market value is 25.716 billion yuan. In December 2025, about 12% of the positions, a total of 9 stocks, were removed and 9 new stocks were included [28][32][40]. - **Industry Characteristics**: In the index's component stocks, 20 stocks belong to the defense military industry, with a weight of 50.04%, and 9 stocks belong to the electronics industry, with a weight of 23.19%. The satellite industry is expected to enter an accelerated development stage with the support of relevant policies [42][45]. - **Fundamental Characteristics**: The index attaches great importance to R & D investment, and its R & D investment ratio is higher than that of the CSI Military Industry Index. In terms of profitability, the ROE of the Guozheng Commercial Satellite Communication Industry Index reached 6.74% at the end of 2024, which is close to the CSI 500 Index and far exceeds comparable indices [46][49]. - **Investment Value Analysis**: Since 2024, the index has shown excellent performance. It is more adaptable to the small - cap rebound environment. As of December 17, 2025, the index has risen by 63.78% cumulatively, outperforming comparable indices and representative broad - based indices, and its risk - adjusted returns (Sharpe and Calmar) are also outstanding [53][56]. 3.3 Yongying Guozheng Commercial Satellite Communication Industry ETF (159206) - **Basic Information**: The ETF was officially established on March 6, 2025, and listed on March 14, 2025. Its current fund manager is Liu Tingyu. It closely tracks the underlying index and aims to minimize the tracking deviation and tracking error [3][60]. - **Product Scarcity and Scale Advantage**: As of December 18, 2025, it is the only ETF tracking the Guozheng Commercial Satellite Communication Industry Index, with a high degree of scarcity. Its scale reaches 3.186 billion yuan, exceeding the total scale of comparable ETFs tracking the CSI Satellite Industry Index [3][61]. 3.4 Fund Manager and Fund Manager Information - **Fund Manager Introduction**: Yongying Fund Management Co., Ltd. was established in November 2013. As of the third quarter of 2025, its net asset value excluding money funds and short - term wealth - management bond funds was 428.944 billion yuan. It manages 15 ETF products, with a cumulative management scale of 27.808 billion yuan [63]. - **Fund Manager Introduction**: Liu Tingyu has 6 years of securities - related work experience. He currently manages 16 products, with a total scale of 23.53 billion yuan [64].

证券分析师 2025 年 12 月 23 日 布局 6G 时代空天基础设施：永赢国 证 商 用 卫 星 通 信 产 业 ETF （159206）投资价值分析 ——指数基金产品研究系列之二百六十二 证 券 研 究 报 告 相关研究 - 白皓天 A0230525070001 baiht@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 研究支持 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 联系人 白皓天 A0230525070001 baiht@swsresearch.com ⚫ 永赢国证商用卫星通信产业 ETF（159206）是永赢基金旗下的 ETF 产品，于 2025/3/6 正式成立，并于 2025/3/14 正式上市，现任基金经理为刘庭宇先生。基金紧密跟踪标的 指数，追求跟踪偏离度和跟踪误差最小化。截止 2025/12/18，跟踪国证商用卫星通信产 业的 ETF 仅有永赢国证商用卫星通信产业 ETF，产品具备高度的稀缺性。 对比跟踪中证 卫星产业指数的五只 ETF，永赢永赢国证商用卫星通信产业 ETF 的规 ...