| | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | G国贸期货 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国贸商品指数 ITE G | 国贸商品指数日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 从业资格号: 别建春 | F3014717 | | | | 宏观金融中心 投资咨询号: Z0013223 | | 2025/12/25 | | | 周三（12月24日），国内商品期市收盘多数上涨，贵金属涨幅居前,沪银涨8.12%,把、铂涨停; | | | | | 能源材料多数上涨,碳酸锂涨5.89%;基本金属全部上涨,沪镍涨4.68%;化工品全部上涨,乙二醇涨 | | | | | 3.89%;农副产品多数上涨,鸡蛋涨2.29%;非金属建材全部上涨,玻璃涨2.04%;油脂油料多数上 | | | | | 涨,菜油涨1.45%;黑色系多数上涨,不锈钢涨1.40%;能源品多数上涨,原油涨0.68%;航运期货跌 幅居前,集运指数(欧线)跌1.63%。 | | | | | 热评:周三国内商品多数上涨,其中,工业品多数上涨,农产品多数上涨。具体来看; | | | | | (1) 黑色系多数上涨。终端需求疲弱的 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - On Tuesday (November 4), most domestic commodities declined, with industrial products mostly falling and agricultural products mostly weakening [1]. - The macro - positive expectations for black commodities have ended, and steel prices may face a correction risk as they return to the off - season fundamentals [1]. - Base metals are under pressure from the rebound of the US dollar index, and copper may enter a short - term adjustment. The price of lithium carbonate is volatile and affected by enterprise news [1]. - For energy and chemical products, although international oil prices only slightly rose, there may be short - term rebound momentum due to OPEC+'s decision to pause production increase in the first quarter of next year [1]. - In the case of oilseeds and oils, the price trends vary among different varieties, with some affected by macro news, supply - demand, and cost factors [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Black Commodities - Macro利好预期结束，商品整体情绪降温，钢材需求持续性不明且幅度有限，螺纹热卷期货四连阴回吐上周涨幅 [1]. - 上周五大钢材品种库存环比降2.64%至1513.76万吨，但较去年同期增22.58%，产量环比增1.15%，表观需求环比增2.65%至916.4万吨创近半年高位 [1]. - 近期钢材供需结构转好，但宏观扰动结束，预计回归淡季基本面，价格有回调风险 [1]. Base Metals - 美联储官员表态分歧，缺乏关键数据指引，美元指数反弹压制金属市场 [1]. - 海外矿山中断，国内社库反弹，伦铜短期在1000美金上方压力大，随降息预期回落短期将调整 [1]. - 碳酸锂前期因需求上涨，近期复产预期提升，价格受消息影响波动大，需关注企业动态 [1]. Energy and Chemical Products - 欧美对俄石油制裁和地缘事件的风险溢价未能推动油价上行，国际油价仅微幅收涨，内盘原油系多数走弱 [1]. - 短期国际原油市场交易逻辑未变，利好是美国制裁政策和地缘局势不确定，利空是OPEC+增产立场及全球经济和需求欠佳 [1]. - OPEC+12月继续增产，但明年一季度暂停增产超市场预期，国际油价短期或有反弹动能 [1]. Oilseeds and Oils - 菜粕近月合约延续强势但上涨动能有限，部分远月合约回落；豆粕期货全线回落，观望美豆需求 [1]. - 棕榈油期货受马棕产量及库存增长预期打压维持弱势；豆油供强需弱但成本有支撑，维持震荡调整 [1]. - 菜油小幅收涨，短期国内菜油进入入库期，跟随油脂市场波动 [1]. Index Performance - The overall Guomao Commodity Index decreased by 0.91% from November 3rd to November 4th [1]. - The daily commodity index decreased by 1.03% [1]. - The Guomao Black Commodity Index decreased by 1.13% [1]. - The other commodity index increased by 0.27% [1].