OECD（2021）和世界银行（2025）曾指出：AI对就业的影响还不明确、无法预估。从某种意义上讲，量化AI对就业的影响是一个悖论。它在操作上面临 着无法切割、难以界定和不可预判三个层层递进的难题。 一、三大不足 技术对就业影响的研究是一门显学。随着生成式人工智能蓬勃兴起，全球又掀起了一波新的研究浪潮。OECD、IMF、世界经济论坛、联合国贸发会议、 国际劳工组织、世界银行等国际组织，高盛、麦肯锡、皮尤研究中心等咨询机构，纷纷推出报告。如下表所示。 | 机构 | 发布时间 | 核心结论 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 2023.3 | 美国约三分之二的工作岗位面临一定程度的AI 自动化风险 | | 高盛 | | (two-thirds of US occupations are exposed to some degree of | | | | automation by AI ) | | | 2017.1 | 现有的半数工作活动将在 2055年被自动化(half of today's work activities could be automated by 2055 > | | 麦肯 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on employment, highlighting the ongoing debate and confusion surrounding the quantification of AI's effects on jobs, as well as the limitations and challenges in measuring these impacts [3][5][11]. Group 1: Research Findings on AI and Employment - Various international organizations and consulting firms have published reports on AI's impact on jobs, with findings indicating that a significant portion of jobs are at risk of automation. For instance, the OECD states that 27% of jobs in its member countries are at high risk of automation, while the IMF estimates that nearly 40% of global employment is exposed to AI [4][5]. - The reports show a wide range of estimates regarding job exposure to AI, with figures varying from 0.4% to 67%, indicating a lack of comparability and consistency among studies [5][6]. - The concept of "AI Occupation Exposure" is often misunderstood, leading to unnecessary panic about job losses, as high exposure does not necessarily equate to job elimination [5][6]. Group 2: Challenges in Quantifying AI's Impact - The quantification of AI's impact on employment faces three main challenges: the inability to isolate AI as an independent factor, the difficulty in clearly defining the scope of AI, and the unpredictability of future technological developments [8][9][10]. - AI's influence on employment is intertwined with various macroeconomic factors, making it challenging to isolate its effects in a meaningful way [8]. - The dynamic nature of AI and its integration into various sectors complicates the ability to define its impact clearly, as AI is often embedded in existing technologies and applications [9]. Group 3: Limitations of Data in Employment Studies - Data used in employment studies can be influenced by subjective factors and may not always reflect objective reality, leading to potential biases in the findings [12]. - The pursuit of accurate data is often hindered by practical challenges, such as funding and sampling issues, which can result in distorted outcomes [12]. - The inherent limitations of data mean that predictions about the future labor market based solely on past data are often unreliable, as unforeseen changes can significantly alter employment landscapes [12].

Core Viewpoint - Four-dimensional Intelligent Connectivity (Nanjing) Technology Co., Ltd. is preparing for an IPO in Hong Kong, despite facing significant financial challenges, including continuous losses and a low market share in the intelligent cockpit sector [1][5]. Company Overview - Four-dimensional Intelligent Connectivity was established in 2018 as a spin-off from the A-share listed company Four-dimensional Tushin, focusing on providing comprehensive software and hardware solutions for intelligent cockpits, including AI assistants and interactive systems [1][2]. - The company ranks tenth among domestic primary intelligent cockpit solution providers with a market share of 0.1% and is the third largest software-driven supplier globally [2]. Financial Performance - The company has reported revenues of 5.39 billion yuan in 2022, 4.77 billion yuan in 2023, and an estimated 4.79 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a decline in total revenue [5][6]. - Net losses have increased from 2.04 billion yuan in 2022 to an estimated 3.78 billion yuan in 2024, with cumulative losses reaching approximately 8.47 billion yuan over three years [5][6]. - Adjusted net losses have surged approximately 8.8 times, from 13.59 million yuan in 2022 to 133 million yuan in 2024 [5][6]. Revenue Sources - The company heavily relies on a limited number of clients for revenue, with the top five clients contributing 85.9%, 96.2%, and 92.2% of total revenue from 2022 to 2024 [5][6]. - The largest client, Four-dimensional Tushin Beijing, accounted for nearly half of the company's revenue in the previous year [6]. R&D Investment - R&D expenditures have been significant, with amounts of 1.13 billion yuan, 1.03 billion yuan, and 2.1 billion yuan over the past three years, representing 21%, 21.7%, and 43.8% of revenue, respectively [6][7]. - The company has established a research team of 377 employees, making up 83% of its total workforce, indicating a strong focus on R&D despite financial losses [6][7]. Market Position and Challenges - The company faces challenges in achieving profitability, with a low market share and high dependency on a few major clients for revenue [5][6][7]. - Despite having prominent investors such as Tencent and Didi, the company has struggled to turn a profit, raising concerns about its long-term sustainability [5][6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Siwei Zhiliang, a subsidiary of Siwei Tuxin, has submitted an application for a mainboard listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to raise funds to establish independent production capacity and enhance R&D capabilities [2] - Siwei Zhiliang was established in 2018 and specializes in providing full-stack solutions for intelligent cockpit software and hardware, including AI assistants and interactive systems [2] - The company ranks tenth among domestic first-tier suppliers in 2024 with a market share of 0.1%, while its integrated cockpit solution service volume ranks second nationwide [2] Group 2 - Siwei Zhiliang's financial performance has been under pressure, with revenues of 539 million yuan, 477 million yuan, and 479 million yuan from 2022 to 2024, accumulating losses of 847 million yuan over three years [2] - The net loss is expected to widen to 378 million yuan in 2024, primarily due to an increase in R&D expenditure from 21% to 43.8% and high outsourcing costs for hardware [2] - The top five customers contributed 92.2% of Siwei Zhiliang's revenue in 2024, with Siwei Tuxin and Didi being the largest contributors [2] Group 3 - Industry analysts believe that Siwei Zhiliang is facing three pressures: ongoing operational losses, upstream chip monopolies, and excessive reliance on major customers [3] - Balancing high R&D investment with the exploration of profitable pathways is seen as crucial for Siwei Zhiliang's potential success in its IPO [3]

Core Viewpoint - Four-dimensional Zhihui, a subsidiary of Four-dimensional Tuxin, has submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to navigate the reshuffling in the intelligent connected vehicle industry while facing significant financial challenges [2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Four-dimensional Zhihui, established in 2018, focuses on providing comprehensive software and hardware solutions for intelligent cockpits, including AI assistants and navigation systems [3]. - The company ranks tenth among domestic primary intelligent cockpit solution providers, with a market share of only 0.1% [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - From 2022 to 2024, Four-dimensional Zhihui is projected to incur cumulative losses of 847 million yuan, averaging annual losses of 280 million yuan, with an operating cash flow of only 89.88 million yuan in 2024 [2][4]. - Revenue figures for Four-dimensional Zhihui from 2022 to 2024 are 539 million yuan, 477 million yuan, and 479 million yuan, respectively, while losses increased from 203 million yuan to 378 million yuan during the same period [4]. Group 3: Customer Dependency - The company has a high customer concentration, with the top five clients contributing to 92.2% of revenue by 2024, including major shareholders like Four-dimensional Tuxin and Didi [4]. - Didi alone contributed approximately 1.726 billion yuan to Four-dimensional Zhihui's revenue in 2024, accounting for 37.2% of total revenue [4]. Group 4: Research and Development - Four-dimensional Zhihui's R&D expenditures from 2022 to 2024 were 113.1 million yuan, 103.4 million yuan, and 209.6 million yuan, with R&D spending as a percentage of revenue rising from 21% to 43.8% [5]. - The company is focusing on solutions based on computing power chips, indicating a commitment to maintaining high R&D investments amid increasing competition in the intelligent cockpit sector [5]. Group 5: Supply Chain and Production - Four-dimensional Zhihui relies heavily on external suppliers for hardware production, which affects its profitability and production quality [6]. - The company aims to establish its own assembly factory to enhance control over production processes and reduce dependency on external suppliers, thereby lowering production costs and supply chain risks [7].