资产配置 | 动态跟踪 大类资产风险可控，短期关注交易特征 ——"2+1"思维在大类资产中的应用初探 股债跷跷板的成因、影响和策略应对 2025-09-17 基于风险因子择时的动态全天候思路 2025-08-18 全天候策略需要择时吗：——风险均衡策 略新思路 2025-07-09 风险提示 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 021-63326320 研究结论 报告发布日期 2025 年 09 月 29 日 | 王晶 | 执业证书编号：S0860510120030 | | --- | --- | | | wangjing@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63325888*6072 | | 周仕盈 | 执业证书编号：S0860125060012 zhoushiying@orientsec.com.cn | ⚫ 证券研究"2+1"思维在大类资产投资过程中同样有效。"2+1"思维也即预期思 维、交易思维与边际思维。在资产配置中，我们通常以战略配置定中期仓位中枢， 以战术配置做短期仓位调整 ...

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange situation in China has shown resilience amidst complex external challenges, with positive trends in foreign investment and a stable currency exchange rate [1][2][3]. Group 1: Foreign Investment Trends - From January to May, net inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) in equity reached $31.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16% [1][3]. - Net inflows of foreign securities investment were approximately $33 billion, reversing the net outflow trend observed in the second half of the previous year [1][3]. - In the first half of the year, foreign investors increased their holdings of domestic stocks and funds by $10.1 billion, marking a turnaround from the net reduction seen over the past two years [4]. Group 2: Currency Exchange Rate Stability - The RMB appreciated by 1.9% against the USD in the first half of the year, with the exchange rate fluctuating between 7.15 and 7.35 [2]. - Market expectations for the RMB remain stable, with no significant unilateral appreciation or depreciation anticipated [2][6]. Group 3: International Balance of Payments - The current account surplus has shown steady growth, maintaining a reasonable balance, while the non-reserve financial account has recorded a deficit roughly equivalent to the current account surplus [3][6]. - In the first half of the year, net inflows of cross-border funds from non-bank sectors reached $127.3 billion, continuing the net inflow trend from the second half of the previous year [3]. Group 4: Foreign Asset Allocation - Foreign investment in RMB-denominated bonds has increased, with holdings exceeding $600 billion, reflecting a historically high level [4]. - The proportion of foreign investors holding domestic bonds and stocks is currently between 3% and 4%, indicating potential for stable and sustainable growth in foreign asset allocation [4]. Group 5: Policy Environment and Market Resilience - The financial market's high-quality development has created a favorable policy environment for foreign investment in China [5]. - The Chinese economy's robust fundamentals and ongoing high-level opening-up policies are expected to support the stable operation of the foreign exchange market [6][7]. - The RMB's market-oriented formation mechanism has improved, enhancing its ability to respond to external pressures and maintain supply-demand balance [7].

Group 1 - Recent foreign investment enthusiasm for RMB assets has increased significantly [6][7] - In April, foreign investors net increased their holdings of domestic bonds by 10.9 billion USD, indicating a strong willingness to invest [7] - By late April, foreign investment in domestic stocks turned into net buying, reflecting growing confidence in the Chinese market [7] Group 2 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission reported that foreign investors hold approximately 3 trillion CNY in A-share market, highlighting their importance [7] - As China's economy continues to develop, the capital market is expected to provide more opportunities for foreign investors to share in China's growth [7] - Joohee An from Future Asset Global Investment noted that foreign institutions are gradually increasing their asset allocation to China, anticipating limited downside risks in corporate earnings [7] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley's managing director highlighted that foreign investors, particularly long-term capital, have shown patience and enthusiasm, with net inflows since Q4 2024 [9] - Over 80% of investors at Morgan Stanley's recent conference indicated a likelihood of increasing their exposure to Chinese stocks [9] - The current valuation of the CSI 300 index is around 12 times earnings, making the Chinese market's valuation attractive [9] Group 4 - A survey by Bank of America revealed that more investors are seeking opportunities in China, with only 16% looking elsewhere, down from 26% the previous month [9] - 10% of investors have fully invested in China, indicating a strong commitment to the market [9]