十月初的资产市场直接上演"冰火两重天"：黄金跟开了加速挂似的往4000美元/盎司冲，比高盛预期提 前了一整年；比特币刚在5月破了11万美元新高；可曾经的香饽饽科技板块，却挤得像爆满的游戏副 本，到底哪些资产是真机会，哪些藏着"坑"？ 黄金创下新高 进入十月份，黄金的价格再创新高，截至10月6日，金价都快摸到4000美元/盎司了。之前高盛还说，预 计2026年黄金能到4000美元/盎司，年底甚至能冲4900美元/盎司。 可现在才2025年10月，照这速度，说不定今年就能把4000美元/盎司给破了，比预想的快多了。 为啥黄金这么猛？其实就跟咱们玩游戏遇着危险往安全区躲一样，现在全球不太平，逆全球化的味儿越 来越浓，每次全球化卡壳，比如俄乌冲突、巴以冲突，或者有些国家搞加税把供应链弄乱，大家就觉得 钱放别的地方不踏实，往黄金里挪。 再加上美国没以前那么强了，还总想着自己玩自己的，各国央行也不怎么爱囤美债了，转而买黄金，黄 金的分量自然就重了。 美股和加密领域 最后聊聊美股和加密领域，这俩就像游戏里的高风险副本，玩好了能赚不少，玩不好也容易亏，美股那 边，标普指数突破6800点后，美托（就是美股相关的指数基金）就有点 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs believes that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) stock price is significantly undervalued due to the structural boost from southbound capital, despite underperforming major indices in the past month [1][2]. Group 1: Southbound Capital Impact - Southbound capital is driving unprecedented growth in the average daily trading volume of cash stocks, which is a key profit driver for HKEX [2][3]. - The average daily trading volume has reached 318 billion HKD in September, surpassing 279 billion HKD in August and 254 billion HKD year-to-date [3]. - Southbound capital contributes approximately 30% to 40% of the year-on-year growth in total trading volume, accounting for about 25% of the total trading volume in the Hong Kong market [3]. Group 2: Earnings Forecast Adjustments - Goldman Sachs has raised its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for HKEX for the years 2025-2027 by 3% to 4% [4][5]. - The updated EPS forecasts are as follows: 2025 from 12.63 HKD to 12.97 HKD, 2026 from 13.05 HKD to 13.61 HKD, and 2027 from 13.96 HKD to 14.45 HKD [5]. Group 3: Valuation and Price Target - The target price for HKEX has been increased from 524 HKD to 544 HKD, reflecting a 4% upward adjustment based on the revised earnings forecasts [2][4]. - Historical valuation comparisons indicate that the current stock price is slightly below the median level of historical cycles, while the earnings growth outlook remains strong [6][7]. - A 20-year regression model suggests that the theoretical stock price should be around 590 HKD based on current trading activity levels, indicating significant potential for price correction [7].

摩根资产管理首席全球策略师David Kelly表示，市场普遍预计美联储本周会降息，如果此举被认为是出 于政治压力，而与央行对经济的预测不相符，则将加大股票、债券和美元面临的风险。 Kelly在报告中 写道，华尔街债市和股市投资者近期因预计美联储将在暂停九个月后重启降息而欢呼，但在市场近期的 大涨之后，投资者应转持谨慎立场，寻求多元化配置。 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong government is focusing on enhancing its asset and wealth management sector, with plans to expand the "Cross-Border Wealth Management Connect" program to increase the range of products and participants [1][3] - Global investors are increasingly recognizing the need for diversified asset allocation, particularly in the Chinese market, leading to a surge in investment activities in Hong Kong [1][2] - The Hong Kong stock market has shown significant growth, with the Hang Seng Index rising 18% last year and nearly 30% this year, alongside substantial increases in IPO fundraising and bank deposits [1][2] Group 2 - The total assets managed in Hong Kong increased by 13% year-on-year to over 35 trillion HKD, with net inflows reaching 705 billion HKD, reflecting a strong growth in asset management business [2] - The Greater Bay Area, with a population exceeding 87 million and a GDP over 14.5 trillion RMB, is expected to be a key growth driver for wealth management services [2] - The Hong Kong government is implementing various measures, including tax incentives, to attract family offices and enhance its position as an international hub for wealth management [3] Group 3 - The private equity and venture capital ecosystem in Hong Kong is robust, managing nearly 230 billion USD, making it the second-largest in Asia after mainland China [4] - Hong Kong is cautiously promoting the opening of more private funds to retail investors, which will diversify their investment options and support industry development [4]

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange situation in China has shown resilience amidst complex external challenges, with positive trends in foreign investment and a stable currency exchange rate [1][2][3]. Group 1: Foreign Investment Trends - From January to May, net inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) in equity reached $31.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16% [1][3]. - Net inflows of foreign securities investment were approximately $33 billion, reversing the net outflow trend observed in the second half of the previous year [1][3]. - In the first half of the year, foreign investors increased their holdings of domestic stocks and funds by $10.1 billion, marking a turnaround from the net reduction seen over the past two years [4]. Group 2: Currency Exchange Rate Stability - The RMB appreciated by 1.9% against the USD in the first half of the year, with the exchange rate fluctuating between 7.15 and 7.35 [2]. - Market expectations for the RMB remain stable, with no significant unilateral appreciation or depreciation anticipated [2][6]. Group 3: International Balance of Payments - The current account surplus has shown steady growth, maintaining a reasonable balance, while the non-reserve financial account has recorded a deficit roughly equivalent to the current account surplus [3][6]. - In the first half of the year, net inflows of cross-border funds from non-bank sectors reached $127.3 billion, continuing the net inflow trend from the second half of the previous year [3]. Group 4: Foreign Asset Allocation - Foreign investment in RMB-denominated bonds has increased, with holdings exceeding $600 billion, reflecting a historically high level [4]. - The proportion of foreign investors holding domestic bonds and stocks is currently between 3% and 4%, indicating potential for stable and sustainable growth in foreign asset allocation [4]. Group 5: Policy Environment and Market Resilience - The financial market's high-quality development has created a favorable policy environment for foreign investment in China [5]. - The Chinese economy's robust fundamentals and ongoing high-level opening-up policies are expected to support the stable operation of the foreign exchange market [6][7]. - The RMB's market-oriented formation mechanism has improved, enhancing its ability to respond to external pressures and maintain supply-demand balance [7].

Core Viewpoint - Foreign institutions have reduced their holdings of RMB bonds for two consecutive months due to the narrowing basis of the one-year USD against the onshore RMB, which has compressed the overall yield of interbank certificates of deposit [1] Group 1: Market Trends - In May and June, foreign institutions decreased their investments in RMB bonds primarily because of the reduced yield from interbank certificates of deposit [1] - The upcoming maturity peak of interbank certificates of deposit, which were invested in by foreign institutions last year, has also contributed to this trend [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Looking ahead, the "anti-involution" policy direction in July has reignited inflation expectations, leading to a shock in the interest rate bond market [1] - There may be investment opportunities in long-term bonds once the sentiment in the stock and commercial markets stabilizes [1] Group 3: Long-term Investment Logic - The ongoing process of RMB internationalization and the trend of "de-dollarization" are expected to drive foreign institutions' long-term demand for diversified asset allocation, leading to continued increases in RMB bond holdings over the long term [1] Group 4: Currency Stability - Despite fluctuations in foreign capital flows in the bond market, the increase in foreign investments in the equity market, stable expectations from China-US trade negotiations, and the central bank's balanced exchange rate policy suggest that the RMB exchange rate is likely to maintain resilience in the short term [1]

Group 1 - 30% of central banks surveyed plan to increase allocation to RMB assets, indicating a growing interest in diversifying investments into China [1] - The RMB has appreciated by 1.9% against the USD in the first half of the year, with a trading range between 7.15 and 7.35 [1] - Foreign investment in RMB-denominated bonds has exceeded $600 billion, reflecting a stable trend since 2025 [1] Group 2 - The RMB is experiencing structural changes, with a shift in expectations towards appreciation rather than depreciation [2] - The long-term low interest rate environment in China, with 10-year government bond yields below 2%, contrasts with the US yields above 4%, supporting RMB's internationalization [2] Group 3 - The credibility of US Treasury bonds is declining, as evidenced by increased volatility and a 5% drop in the USD index following tariff announcements [3][4] - The shift in trade dynamics due to tariffs may enhance the use of non-USD currencies, including RMB, in international trade settlements [5] Group 4 - The current low allocation of global stock assets to China (1.7%) compared to the US (54%) suggests a potential for systematic correction in the future [6] - China's manufacturing sector continues to lead globally, with a manufacturing value added of over 40.5 trillion yuan, accounting for approximately 30% of global manufacturing [7] Group 5 - The market position of the RMB is improving, with foreign investors increasingly holding RMB-denominated assets, which currently account for about 3%-4% of total market value [8] - Economic stability and the effectiveness of domestic demand policies are expected to further enhance the attractiveness of RMB assets to foreign investors [8] Group 6 - The RMB's exchange rate is expected to remain stable, supported by high-quality economic development and ongoing foreign exchange market resilience [9] - The need for the RMB to maintain appropriate elasticity in its exchange rate is emphasized to mitigate downward pressure [9] Group 7 - Recent measures to facilitate cross-border investment and financing are expected to enhance the attractiveness of RMB assets, with significant reductions in processing times for foreign investment [10] - Allowing for a moderate appreciation of the RMB could help alleviate concerns about currency depreciation among foreign investors, fostering a positive investment environment [10][11]

Group 1 - China has reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds by $900 million in May, marking the third consecutive month of reduction, bringing its total holdings down to $756.3 billion [1][3] - The reduction is not a result of a deliberate sell-off but rather a reflection of market fluctuations, as China actually increased its holdings of long-term bonds by nearly $5 billion during the same period [3][5] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the desire for asset safety are driving China to diversify its investments away from US Treasuries towards gold, euro assets, and projects related to the Belt and Road Initiative [3][5] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy, characterized by rising bond yields and a reluctance to lower interest rates, has created a mismatch in the bond market, affecting foreign investors' willingness to hold US debt [5][8] - President Trump’s push for lower interest rates aims to alleviate the government's debt burden, which has become a significant expenditure as the national debt exceeds $36 trillion [5][6] - The conflict between Trump and Fed Chairman Powell has escalated, with Powell emphasizing that monetary policy should not be influenced by political pressures, highlighting the importance of maintaining the integrity of the dollar [6][11] Group 3 - Japan has overtaken China as the largest holder of US Treasury bonds, with holdings reaching $1.14 trillion, while the shift in rankings reflects a broader global reassessment of the attractiveness of US debt [9][11] - Canada's aggressive purchase of over $65 billion in US Treasuries in May indicates a strategic move to support the US market amidst rising financial pressures, showcasing the intertwined political and economic relationship between the two countries [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts suggest that the short-term rebound of the US dollar will not alter the overall downtrend, as investors are likely to continue withdrawing funds from US assets, leading to a long-term weakening of the dollar [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Investors are expected to diversify their asset allocations, reducing reliance on US assets due to policy uncertainty in the US [1] - Short-term demand for safe-haven assets may support a stronger dollar, but the overall selling trend is anticipated to persist [1] Group 2: Foreign Investment Behavior - Foreign investors are actively diversifying their investments away from US assets, indicating a shift in investment strategy [1] - The short-term rebound in the dollar is not expected to change the long-term downtrend in its value [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent issuance of a total of $3.08 billion in investment quotas for Qualified Domestic Institutional Investors (QDII) by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) aims to enhance the functionality of the QDII system, reflecting a significant step towards expanding overseas investment opportunities for domestic investors [1][10]. Group 1: Historical Development of QDII Quotas - The QDII system, launched in 2006, has evolved through several phases, with quota issuance closely tied to domestic and international economic conditions [2]. - The first phase (2006-2008) saw limited quota trials, but the global financial crisis led to tightened regulations and a period of reflection [2]. - The second phase (2009-2014) focused on regulatory improvements, expanding investment options beyond stocks to include bonds and REITs, while the total quota remained frozen at $90 billion [3]. - The third phase (2015-present) has been characterized by regular quota expansions, with the total reaching $170 billion by 2025, reflecting a growing demand for global asset allocation [4]. Group 2: Details of the Recent Quota Issuance - The recent quota distribution involved 82 institutions across five categories, including banks, insurance, trusts, securities, and funds, showcasing a comprehensive allocation strategy [6]. - Notable winners among fund companies include E Fund, GF Fund, and others, each receiving $50 million, while several institutions received varying amounts down to $10 million [6][7]. - The total approved QDII quota for E Fund exceeds $7 billion, indicating its leading position in the market [7]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Innovations - Following the quota announcement, many fund companies adjusted their QDII product subscription limits, with several increasing the minimum investment amounts significantly [8]. - New product innovations are emerging, such as thematic funds focusing on specific sectors like consumption and technology, indicating a shift towards more diversified investment strategies [9]. Group 4: Macroeconomic and Regulatory Context - The increase in QDII quotas is driven by the growing demand for asset diversification among domestic investors, as well as the need to enhance China's financial market participation on the global stage [10][11]. - The stable foreign exchange market conditions have created a favorable environment for the issuance of new quotas, supporting the healthy operation of the QDII system [11][13]. Group 5: Unmet Demand and Alternative Investment Channels - Despite the recent quota issuance, over 50% of the 676 QDII funds still face various subscription restrictions, highlighting a persistent gap between supply and demand [15][16]. - Alternative investment channels such as Northbound Mutual Recognition Funds and Cross-Border Wealth Management Connect are available, providing additional pathways for domestic investors to access overseas markets [17]. Group 6: Importance of Global Diversification - Expanding investment beyond domestic markets is crucial for investors to access attractive global opportunities and reduce portfolio volatility through diversification [18]. - Research indicates that combining assets with low correlation can lower overall portfolio risk, emphasizing the value of a diversified investment approach [19].