六大积极因素协同显现，共同构成中国资本市场中长期价值的坚实底座。 最后是枢纽功能的日益凸显。当前，中国资本市场正在加快发挥其在宏观经济体系中的枢纽功能。从功 能定位看，所谓枢纽，是不同经济要素之间的交汇点与调节器。在这一意义上，资本市场既是信息与预 期的集中反映机制，也是影响经济行为与资源配置方向的重要传导渠道。具体来看，资本市场既是信心 的枢纽，也是消费的枢纽，更是发展的枢纽。首先，股市运行状况不仅影响居民财富预期，也通过估 值、融资环境和并购活动等渠道，影响企业的投资意愿和风险偏好。其次，资本市场所对应的财产性收 入渠道具有更高的灵活性与可调节性，有利于边际支持消费潜能的释放。此外，资本市场，特别是多层 次股权市场为代表的直接融资体系，在支持科技创新、培育新产业和推动新质生产力形成方面，具有重 要作用，特别是对于高度依赖直接融资体系和股权资本的科创型企业而言。随着经济增长质量改善、新 产业和新质生产力加快培育，企业盈利能力与现金流状况有望持续改善，这也有助于推动市场内生价值 的提升，形成资本市场与经济基本面的的良性循环。 （作者系工银国际首席经济学家） 三是外资配置的稳步扩张。在估值基础与外部环境边际改善 ...

六大积极因素协同显现，共同构成中国资本市场中长期价值的坚实底座。 "马作的卢飞快，弓如霹雳弦惊。"置身百年变局纵深演进、全球资本版图加速重构的时代背景下，中国 资本市场立足时与势，兼顾质与量，赋能实体经济的发展空间持续拓宽，服务高质量发展的时代价值愈 发凸显。六大积极因素协同显现，共同构成中国资本市场中长期价值的坚实底座。2026年，中国资本市 场稳健发展的底色更加鲜明、韧性持续提升，在服务高质量发展的实践中大有可为。守正笃行、行稳致 远，中国资本市场的2026年值得期待。 一是估值水平的潜在空间。从全球资产配置的视角观察，中国资本市场在估值层面的相对优势，既体现 在静态估值水平上，也体现在动态估值修复节奏之中。在静态层面，中国权益资产整体估值仍处于相对 偏低区间，截至2026年1月30日，沪深300指数与恒生指数的市盈率分别约为14.18倍和12.47倍。这不仅 明显低于美股主要指数，也低于欧洲、日本等主要市场，体现出估值中枢潜力空间的相对优势。在动态 层面，2023年以来，随着新冠疫情冲击的逐步消退，主要经济体货币政策转向，在盈利预期修复和风险 偏好回升的共同作用下，全球资本市场普遍经历了一轮估值修复过程 ...

Core Insights - The "Top Ten Influential Economists of 2025" list has been announced, highlighting the resilience and quality improvement of China's economy amidst multiple challenges [1][2] - The evaluation was conducted by a committee considering five dimensions: professionalism, influence, innovation, foresight, and activity level, with results based on voting and data on output and impact [2] Group 1: Award Recognition - Luo Zhiheng, Chief Economist of Yuekai Securities, has been awarded the title of "Top Ten Influential Economists of 2025" [3] Group 2: Key Perspectives by Luo Zhiheng - Insights on the export situation in China for 2026, emphasizing resilience despite pressures [3][4] - Analysis of the Chinese capital market outlook for 2026, focusing on A-shares and investment strategies [3][4] - Considerations on the impact of anti-involution on the economy and related policy implications [4] - Discussion on understanding the fiscal and tax deployment arrangements in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4] - Recommendations for optimizing holiday systems to boost consumption, highlighting its necessity [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the positive trend of China's capital market in 2026 is expected to continue, driven by both reform logic and industrial structure transformation logic [1][2] - The first dimension of development is systematic reforms in the asset, funding, and institutional aspects, with ongoing reforms in the asset side focusing on optimizing the structure of listed companies through the registration system and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [2] - The second dimension emphasizes funding reforms, particularly the orderly entry of large funds into the market, including the gradual involvement of social security funds and commercial insurance funds, along with the innovation of product tools like broad-based ETFs [2] - The third dimension highlights institutional reforms aimed at enhancing market transparency and implementing severe legal penalties for serious violations, shifting from administrative penalties to criminal and civil liabilities [2] Group 2 - The significance of these reforms lies in their ability to restore market confidence and stabilize development expectations through coordinated reforms in the asset, funding, and institutional dimensions [3] - These reforms align with the major transformation of China's economic structure, as traditional economic theories struggle to explain new phenomena, such as the dominance of high-tech enterprises, which is altering the relationship between GDP growth and labor income [3] - The changing economic structure significantly impacts the market, as high-tech and innovative enterprises, traditionally viewed as "bubbles" under conventional valuation methods, are undergoing profound changes in valuation logic due to the transformation of development models [3]

Group 1 - The 2025 Weibo Finance Night and Beijing Financial Influencer Alliance Annual Meeting will be held on January 15, 2026, in Beijing, featuring prominent figures from the finance sector and engaging discussions on hot topics [1][41] - Keynote speakers include Sina Finance CEO Deng Qingxu, Tsinghua University’s Professor He Ping, Morgan Stanley's Chief Economist Xing Ziqiang, and others, who will share insights on the current economic landscape [1][41] - The event will include a peak dialogue session and a roundtable forum focusing on the impact of AI and new production capabilities in the finance sector [1][41] Group 2 - Deng Qingxu emphasized the need for reliable voices in the market and the importance of making finance accessible to the public, stating that the bull market should rise steadily and sustainably [4][42] - He Ping highlighted two significant changes in the Chinese capital market: the shift from a policy-driven market to a more effective market and the increasing influence of international capital flows [6][46] - Xing Ziqiang pointed out that China is expected to maintain a growing share in the global export market, with current exports accounting for one-seventh of the global total, projected to rise to over 17% in five years [7][50] Group 3 - Song Xuetao discussed the importance of "investing in people" to enhance consumer spending, suggesting increased transfer payments and improved public services to encourage spending [11][52] - Former economist Fu Peng stated that the discussion around whether AI is a bubble is less important than the potential for investment returns, advocating for risk-taking in early-stage investments [14][55] - Wu Qilun expressed optimism about China's economic growth driven by a large domestic market and high-level openness, supported by government initiatives to boost consumer income [17][58] Group 4 - Li Daxiao expressed a positive outlook for the A-share market, emphasizing the importance of good companies contributing positively to various stakeholders [21][59] - Lin Yixiang raised concerns about the impact of high-frequency trading on retail investors, suggesting that halting such practices could benefit the market [25][63] - Niu Wenxin stressed the need for better capital liquidity in the stock market to ensure long-term stability [27][66] Group 5 - The roundtable discussion on AI highlighted the potential of embodied intelligent robots, with estimates suggesting a market value reaching trillions of dollars [31][71] - Wan Zhe pointed out that the concept of embodied intelligence should be clarified, emphasizing the importance of emotional value in technology adoption [36][73] - The discussion underscored that the AI sector is far from saturated, with ongoing transformations in societal and work structures due to AI advancements [38][75]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's capital market is transitioning from a policy-driven market to a more effective market, with increasing influence from international capital flows, making it an important part of global asset allocation [1][3][4] - Over the past few decades, China has continuously promoted market-oriented reforms, transitioning from administrative pricing to inquiry-based pricing and from approval systems to registration systems, marking the entry into a market-oriented era [1][3] - The primary goal of market-oriented construction is to enhance market effectiveness, allowing quality assets to be reasonably priced and resources to be effectively allocated, which is also the foundation for market openness [1][3] Group 2 - The opening of the capital market and market-oriented reforms have increased the impact of international capital flows on China's capital market, with rapid growth in the capital market and stock indices closely related to international capital trends over the past year [1][3] - Five current international factors influencing China's capital market have been summarized: 1) Decline of dollar credit 2) Overvaluation of the dollar exchange rate 3) Weakness in the European economy 4) Recovery of the Japanese economy 5) Bubble in the US stock market [1][3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that despite overall macroeconomic uncertainties, there are localized opportunities that are certain [1][3] - The speaker expresses optimism regarding the global competitiveness of Chinese enterprises and the investment opportunities within Chinese assets [1][3] - The Chinese capital market is highlighted as a new area of focus, serving as a crucial channel for resolving existing issues and a key support for incremental growth [1][3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the steady development of China's capital market, driven by the recovery of the real economy, the acceleration of new productivity cultivation, and clearer policy expectations [1][2] - The recovery of market confidence is closely linked to the structural upgrade of the real economy, with increasing demand for capital markets from high-tech industries and new productivity [1] - The bond market is operating steadily, while the stock market is expected to experience long-term growth momentum, indicating a positive outlook for the capital market in 2026 and beyond [1] Group 2 - International investors are increasingly optimistic about Chinese assets, with 2025 being a pivotal year for reassessing these investments, influenced by advancements in technology and industry upgrades [1][2] - The understanding of China's cyclical policies among overseas investors has deepened, leading to a reduced sensitivity to short-term fluctuations and a greater focus on long-term strategic layouts and structural opportunities [2] - The development of China's capital market relies on institutional support and theoretical guidance, with a call for a domestic theoretical framework that aligns with China's unique conditions and market characteristics [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese capital market has undergone fundamental changes over the past year, particularly since the "924" market rally, leading to a restoration of market confidence [1] Group 1: Market Reforms - The capital market requires three key reforms: asset side (restructuring of listed companies), investment side (expansion of market liquidity), and regulatory side (enhancing transparency and fairness of rules) [1] - Emphasis on removing "landmines" in the capital market, with severe penalties for those who create or assist in creating fraudulent listings [1] Group 2: Enforcement and Penalties - Proposed shift from administrative penalties to criminal prosecution and civil compensation for fraudulent activities in the capital market [1] - Equal penalties for intermediary institutions that assist in fraudulent activities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese capital market has undergone fundamental changes over the past year, particularly since the "924" market rally, leading to a restoration of market confidence [1] Group 1: Market Reforms - The capital market requires three key reforms: asset-side reform (restructuring of listed companies), investment-side reform (expansion of market liquidity), and institutional reform (enhancing transparency and fairness of rules) [1] - Emphasis on removing "hidden risks" in the market, with severe penalties for those who create or assist in concealing these risks [1] Group 2: Regulatory Measures - Proposed shift from administrative penalties to criminal prosecution and civil compensation for fraudulent activities, including false listings [1] - Equal penalties for intermediary institutions that assist in fraudulent activities, ensuring accountability across the board [1]