当世界被简化为一张张资产负债表，当国际政治被视为一桩桩可以精确计算的买卖，灾难的种子便已悄然埋下。精明商人出身的特朗普，似乎就正沉溺于这 种"交易思维"的陷阱之中。他自诩擅长成本控制，但在委内瑞拉问题上，他却一反常态地拒绝了马杜罗递来的"投降方案"，转而选择投入巨额资金，豪赌一 场风险极高的战争，这背后究竟隐藏着怎样的逻辑？ 在特朗普的眼中，委内瑞拉拥有的3038亿桶石油储备，无疑是一块巨大的肥肉，一块他渴望吞并的优质资产，更是扼制中国能源命脉的关键筹码。为了达成 这一目标，11艘军舰和15000名士兵被派往加勒比海，福特号航母犹如一把悬在空中的利剑，闪耀着冰冷的金属光泽。 他或许认为，这又是一场可以精确计算的"收购"，但他却忽略了政治这门生意中最难量化的因素——人心与尊严。马杜罗曾递交了两份"投降方案"，包括主 动下台和开放石油资源，这在纯粹的商业逻辑下，无疑是一笔稳赚不赔的买卖。然而，特朗普想要的并非合作，而是百分之百的控制权，一个任他摆布的傀 儡政权。 然而，就连美国的铁杆盟友也私下里算了一笔账，这场战争每日消耗的资金，远远超过短期内从石油中榨取的利润。更关键的是，中国早已实现了能源进口 多元化，委内瑞 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the application of the "2+1" thinking model, which includes expectation thinking, trading thinking, and marginal thinking, in the investment process of major asset classes [6][9][10] - The overall risk of major assets is controllable, with domestic stocks, gold, commodities, domestic bonds, and US stocks being suitable for strategic allocation based on expectation perspectives [6][10][11][13] - The report highlights the need for tactical adjustments in asset positions, particularly in domestic stocks and gold, which suggest a cautious short-term approach but a relatively optimistic medium-term outlook [6][10][39] Group 2 - The trading characteristics of major assets show differentiation, with domestic stocks and gold experiencing a significant strengthening in trading trends since September, while other assets remain relatively stable [6][22][26] - The report indicates that trading sentiment for domestic stocks and gold has increased in the short term, but medium-term uncertainties are decreasing [22][30][39] - The report suggests that the trading trends for commodities and US stocks have weakened since September, with a neutral outlook for domestic bonds [39][20] Group 3 - Domestic stocks are supported by the DDM model, reflecting expectations of earnings and growth, while the risk evaluation has been improving [10][11] - Domestic bonds face uncertainties due to interest rate and inflation expectations, but the risks are still manageable [11][19] - Gold remains optimistic based on expectations of US real interest rates and global monetary system restructuring, with a neutral to slightly positive outlook for commodities [13][17][19]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of global stock markets, the implications of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, and the behavioral patterns of retail investors that often lead to losses during bull markets. Group 1: Market Performance - Global stock market indices experienced an overall increase this week [2] - The US stock market rose by 1.2% this week [3] - Non-US markets saw a slight increase [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has positively impacted the market [5] - However, the benefits of rate cuts are often anticipated before the actual announcement [6] - Markets had already priced in the expectation of rate cuts in July and August, leading to significant gains in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [8] Group 3: Retail Investor Behavior - The statement that bull markets are a primary reason for retail investor losses may seem counterintuitive but reflects reality [13] - Investors tend to open accounts and invest during bull markets, often at high prices, leading to losses when the market corrects [20][21] - The tendency to chase rising stocks and sell during downturns contributes to retail investor losses [25] Group 4: Trading Frequency and Investment Strategy - Frequent trading can lead to missed opportunities, especially in a structurally bullish market where different sectors lead at different times [26] - Investors who trade based on short-term movements may find themselves losing money despite overall market gains [32] - A shift from a trading mindset to a business ownership mindset is recommended for better long-term investment outcomes [36] Group 5: Global Stock Market Valuation - The article includes a star rating system for global stock markets, indicating periods of undervaluation [37] - Following a significant drop in April 2025, the global stock market rebounded but remains at a lower valuation [38] Group 6: Investment Products - There are currently no global stock index funds available in mainland China, but a simulated global index investment strategy is offered through a diversified portfolio [40] - The company has launched a "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" that includes various stock market index funds [41] Group 7: Book Release - A new edition of the book "The Intelligent Investor" has been released, which has gained significant popularity [46][48] - The book emphasizes the long-term benefits of stock investments and provides insights into various asset classes [50][51]