碧桂园（02007.HK）正在对9只境内债券进行重组。10月11日，智通财经获悉，有8只债券的持有人会 议通过了重组方案，余额合计为134.1669亿元。截至目前，仅H16腾越2仍未通过。 截至6月底，9只债券余额为138.5828亿元，包括H16碧园5、H19碧地3、H20碧地3、H20碧地4、H1碧地 01、H1碧地02、H1碧地03、H1碧地04、H16腾越2。 此前智通财经曾报道碧桂园境内债务重组的方案，重组主体拟调整重组债券的本息偿付安排，并提供重 组方案其他选项，包括购回选项、碧桂园控股股票选项及一般债权选项。 关于现金提前偿付安排即同意费，方案显示，对在持有人会议中全部议案投同意票的持有人，按持有张 数的0.1%提前兑付并注销债券，同时豁免全部利息。 碧桂园给出的本息兑付安排调整显示，本金兑付延长至2035年9月2日。以H16碧园5为例，2031年9月2 日起分9期逐步兑付，每半年兑付一次，前四年每次兑付1%、2%、3%、4%，自2034年3月2日起兑付比 例分别为15%、15%、20%、30%。截至2025年9月2日（基准日）的未付利息按1%年利率重新计算；基 准日起按1%年单利计息，利息于2 ...

资产配置 | 动态跟踪 大类资产风险可控，短期关注交易特征 ——"2+1"思维在大类资产中的应用初探 股债跷跷板的成因、影响和策略应对 2025-09-17 基于风险因子择时的动态全天候思路 2025-08-18 全天候策略需要择时吗：——风险均衡策 略新思路 2025-07-09 风险提示 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 021-63326320 研究结论 报告发布日期 2025 年 09 月 29 日 | 王晶 | 执业证书编号：S0860510120030 | | --- | --- | | | wangjing@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63325888*6072 | | 周仕盈 | 执业证书编号：S0860125060012 zhoushiying@orientsec.com.cn | ⚫ 证券研究"2+1"思维在大类资产投资过程中同样有效。"2+1"思维也即预期思 维、交易思维与边际思维。在资产配置中，我们通常以战略配置定中期仓位中枢， 以战术配置做短期仓位调整 ...

旭辉控股集团(00884)发布公告，境内债券重组方案已获得相关债券持有人会议表决通过。境内债券重 组方案涉及对旭辉中国发行的七笔存续公司债券的本息偿付安排进行调整，并提供包括债券购回、股票 经济收益权、以资抵债及一般债权等重组选项。旭辉中国将根据债券持有人会议议案的相关约定，安排 相关债权人就其持有的债券在重组选项中进行选择及分配。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Yuanyang Group, has introduced a preliminary restructuring plan for its domestic bonds, involving approximately 18.07 billion yuan in bonds, with four repayment options available to creditors, potentially reducing the domestic bond balance by up to 69% [1][2][8]. Summary by Sections Domestic Bond Restructuring Plan - The restructuring plan offers four repayment options: cash buyback, stock economic rights, asset debt settlement, and long-term debt retention [2][6]. - The bonds involved include seven company bonds and three bank financing tools, with a total outstanding principal amount of approximately 18.07 billion yuan as of the end of 2024 [4][5]. Repayment Options 1. **Cash Buyback Option**: The company plans to buy back up to 4 billion yuan of bonds at 20% of their remaining face value, resulting in a repayment rate of 20% [6]. 2. **Stock Economic Rights Option**: The company will issue up to 2.8 billion new shares to repay part of the bonds, with an estimated repayment rate of around 20% [6][7]. 3. **Asset Debt Settlement Option**: This option is divided into residential and commercial project income rights, with repayment rates of 30% and 100% respectively, although actual cash recovery depends on project income stability [7]. 4. **Long-term Debt Retention Option**: The maturity of the bonds will be extended by 10 years to September 30, 2035, with an interest rate adjustment to 1% per year, which dilutes the value of creditors' claims [6][8]. Impact of Restructuring - If the first three options are fully subscribed, the estimated remaining domestic bond scale could be over 5.6 billion yuan, leading to a potential 69% reduction in the domestic bond balance, significantly lowering the company's leverage and facilitating a quicker return to healthy operations [8]. Comparison with Overseas Debt Restructuring - The overseas debt restructuring plan involves approximately 4 billion yuan in debt, utilizing structured debt reduction and legal enforcement mechanisms, with new notes issued at a lower interest rate of 3% [10][14]. - The overseas plan has a more rigid structure, ensuring a one-time resolution of debts, while the domestic plan offers more flexibility and options for creditors [14].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry in 2025 is facing significant challenges, including financing difficulties and the need for debt restructuring among property companies, while the government is implementing more proactive fiscal policies to stabilize the market [1][2][3]. Financing and Debt Restructuring - Financing difficulties remain prominent, with property companies' financing in the first half of 2025 reaching 184.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 30% [7]. - The approval of "white list" loans for real estate has increased, with 6.7 trillion approved by May 2025, indicating some marginal improvement in financing support [3][5]. - The cost of offshore bond financing for property companies in the first half of 2025 was 8.60%, while domestic bond financing costs decreased to 2.71% [9][10]. - The total debt maturity for property companies in 2025 is projected to be 532.7 billion, with the third quarter being a peak repayment period [14]. Government Policies and Market Stabilization - The government is maintaining a loose monetary policy and has proposed a special bond issuance of 4.4 trillion for local governments, aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [3][5]. - Urban renewal is a key focus for 2025, with significant progress in the renovation of old urban areas, with 5,679 projects initiated in the first four months [4][17]. - The government emphasizes the need for a new sustainable development model in the real estate sector, with urban renewal as a critical strategy [17]. Industry Outlook and Opportunities - The successful debt restructuring of companies like Xiexin and Jinke provides a model for other struggling firms, indicating a potential path for industry-wide risk mitigation [13][16]. - The ongoing urban renewal efforts are expected to create new opportunities for capable property companies, encouraging them to enhance housing quality and competitiveness [17].

Group 1 - Recent foreign investment enthusiasm for RMB assets has increased significantly [6][7] - In April, foreign investors net increased their holdings of domestic bonds by 10.9 billion USD, indicating a strong willingness to invest [7] - By late April, foreign investment in domestic stocks turned into net buying, reflecting growing confidence in the Chinese market [7] Group 2 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission reported that foreign investors hold approximately 3 trillion CNY in A-share market, highlighting their importance [7] - As China's economy continues to develop, the capital market is expected to provide more opportunities for foreign investors to share in China's growth [7] - Joohee An from Future Asset Global Investment noted that foreign institutions are gradually increasing their asset allocation to China, anticipating limited downside risks in corporate earnings [7] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley's managing director highlighted that foreign investors, particularly long-term capital, have shown patience and enthusiasm, with net inflows since Q4 2024 [9] - Over 80% of investors at Morgan Stanley's recent conference indicated a likelihood of increasing their exposure to Chinese stocks [9] - The current valuation of the CSI 300 index is around 12 times earnings, making the Chinese market's valuation attractive [9] Group 4 - A survey by Bank of America revealed that more investors are seeking opportunities in China, with only 16% looking elsewhere, down from 26% the previous month [9] - 10% of investors have fully invested in China, indicating a strong commitment to the market [9]

国家外汇管理局副局长、新闻发言人李斌就2025年一季度外汇收支形势回答了记者提问：主要渠道跨境 资金流动平稳有序。一是货物贸易资金净流入较快增加。一季度，我国外贸克服外部压力呈现较强韧 性，货物贸易项下跨境资金净流入2063亿美元，同比增长1.2倍。二是外资配置人民币债券增多。2-3月 外资净增持境内债券269亿美元，同比增长84%，4月1日至18日净买入332亿美元，保持较高规模。三是 服务贸易、外资企业利润汇出总体平稳。一季度，服务贸易跨境资金净流出同比增长25%，其中旅行项 下资金净流出增长12%。外资企业利润汇出处于季节性低位，同比下降7%。(国家外汇管理局) ...