股价表现的催化剂：公司先进制程设备国产替代验证；中国主流晶圆厂资本开支上修；AI 驱动算力存 力投资上行；公司加码产业整合与外延并购。 关键假设点：1）在地缘关系复杂化背景下，中国预计将在"十五五"开局阶段加大半导体自主可控投 入，各地专项基金有望持续落地，有望为公司提供关键工艺设备国产替代所需政策、资金支持与客户验 证环境。2）我们假设2025–2027 年大陆市场设备价值量结构为刻蚀26%、薄膜沉积27%、清洗6%、氧 化/扩散6%、外延7%、热处理5%、去胶4%、其他辅助2%。 刻蚀与薄膜沉积环节价值量占比提升，主要受先进制程与新型封装需求双驱动：①FinFET、GAA 及3D NAND 层数增加、结构复杂度提升，带动刻蚀工序增多；②AI 芯片与HBM 封装对薄膜精度和均匀性要 求提高，叠加2.5D/3D 封装与多重图案化普及，共同推升刻蚀与沉积设备的工艺密度与价值量。 有别于市场的认识：市场普遍认为晶圆厂扩产节奏趋缓，短期设备招标进入平缓期，同时认为公司"多 点开花"的平台化战略可能分散资源、削弱在先进制程上的突破力。我们认为，公司通过横向扩展设备 品类、纵向贯通工艺流程，持续向系统集成平台商转型，在 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [6][22]. Core Insights - The company has achieved record high revenues and profits in Q3 2025, driven by the continued growth in etching and film deposition equipment, with Q3 revenue reaching 31.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.62% [6][7]. - The company’s revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 80.63 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 46.40%, with etching equipment contributing 61.01 billion yuan, a growth of approximately 38.26% [6][7]. - High R&D investment of 25.23 billion yuan in the first three quarters, representing 31.29% of revenue, supports accelerated technology iteration and strengthens competitive advantages [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company reported a net profit of 5.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.50% [6][7]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 37.89%, down 5.84 percentage points year-on-year [6][7]. - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 187.87 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 62.61 million shares [3][6]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for total revenue is projected to reach 119.53 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 31.9% [7]. - The expected net profit for 2025 is revised to 19.41 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease from previous estimates due to ongoing high R&D expenditures [6][7]. Market Position and Competitive Edge - The company has made significant breakthroughs in advanced etching and film deposition equipment, enhancing its market coverage in core semiconductor manufacturing processes [6][7]. - The ongoing domestic semiconductor equipment localization trend is expected to further benefit the company, particularly as demand for etching and film deposition equipment increases with the transition from 2D to 3D storage technologies [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and implications of vertical integration in the semiconductor industry, highlighting the risks of unfair competition and the need for collaboration rather than internal competition [1][5]. Industry Overview - The semiconductor manufacturing and equipment sectors are characterized by a high degree of specialization, with major manufacturers like TSMC, Samsung, and GlobalFoundries representing chip makers, while ASML, Applied Materials, and Lam Research represent equipment suppliers [2]. - In China, leading semiconductor manufacturers include SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and JCET, while equipment suppliers include AMEC, North Huachuang, and Shanghai Semei [2]. Competition and Collaboration - Vertical integration is seen as a source of unfair competition, as it can lead to the leakage of proprietary knowledge and trade secrets between chip manufacturers and equipment suppliers [3]. - The historical failures of vertically integrated companies in the semiconductor space underscore the importance of maintaining a clear division between manufacturing and equipment supply [3]. Domestic Semiconductor Equipment Development - The domestic semiconductor equipment industry has made progress in localization, with the highest domestic production rate of 90% achieved in the photoresist stripping equipment [6]. - Other equipment categories, such as thermal processing, etching, and cleaning, have a domestic production rate of around 20%, while CMP and PVD equipment are at approximately 10% [6]. - The development of semiconductor equipment requires significant funding and time, with R&D costs potentially exceeding the sale price of the equipment by multiples [6]. Industry Challenges - The semiconductor micro-processing equipment industry faces ten major challenges, including severe competition and various forms of internal competition [5]. - Encouragement for collaboration between smaller equipment companies and larger firms is suggested to reduce internal friction and promote healthy industry development [6]. Product Launches - At the recent semiconductor equipment exhibition, the company launched six new semiconductor equipment products, showcasing its technological capabilities in critical processes such as plasma etching, atomic layer deposition, and epitaxy [7].

Core Viewpoint - On September 4, during the 13th Semiconductor Equipment and Core Components and Materials Exhibition (CSEAC2025), the company announced the launch of six new semiconductor equipment products, highlighting its commitment to innovation in the semiconductor industry [1] Group 1: New Product Launch - The new products cover key processes such as plasma etching (Etch), atomic layer deposition (ALD), and epitaxy (EPI) [1] - A standout product is the 12-inch atomic layer deposition product, Preforma Uniflash metal gate series, which is a significant highlight in the thin film deposition field [1] - The Preforma Uniflash series includes three major products designed to meet the application needs of advanced logic and advanced memory devices in metal gate technology [1]