Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company Zhejiang Natural (605080) with a target price based on the last closing price of 31.97 [1][7]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 performance exceeded expectations, driven by new product launches and capacity releases, with a revenue of 3.6 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.4%, and a net profit of 0.96 billion yuan, up 148.3% year-on-year [4][7]. - The outdoor sports industry is experiencing rapid growth, with the company positioned to benefit from the increasing penetration of TPU materials over PVC products and the emergence of new product categories [7]. - The company has established three core business segments: inflatable mattresses, waterproof/thermal bags, and water sports products, with a focus on expanding into new markets and customer bases [7]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.7%, and a net profit of 190 million yuan, up 41.7% year-on-year [4][9]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 33.7%, with a net profit margin of 18.5%, reflecting significant improvements in profitability due to effective cost control and operational efficiency [6][9]. - The company expects continued growth in net profit, projecting 270 million yuan in 2025, 380 million yuan in 2026, and 494 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 17, 12, and 9 [7][9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating for the company, Zhejiang Natural [1] Core Views - The company has shown strong performance with a continuous expansion of its product matrix, achieving a revenue of 1 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 21.7%, and a net profit of 190 million yuan, up 41.7% year-on-year [6][17] - The company is actively expanding its market share and optimizing its product structure, with significant growth in overseas production capacity [6][30] - The outdoor equipment market is expected to grow steadily, providing ample opportunities for the company [16] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 1002.35 million yuan, 1380.00 million yuan, 2009.16 million yuan, and 2439.80 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 21.75%, 37.68%, 45.59%, and 21.43% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 185.13 million yuan in 2024A, increasing to 471.49 million yuan by 2027E, with growth rates of 41.67%, 51.24%, 37.55%, and 22.43% [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 1.31 yuan in 2024A to 3.33 yuan in 2027E [2] Product and Market Insights - The company has a diverse product matrix, with significant revenue contributions from inflatable mattresses, outdoor bags, and other main businesses, achieving respective revenue growth rates of 13.9%, 30.9%, and 48.0% in 2024 [6][27] - The company has established long-term stable partnerships with over 200 global brands, including Decathlon and REI, enhancing its market presence [7][18] - The overseas sales accounted for 79.8% of total revenue in 2024, reflecting the company's strong international market position [18] Growth Strategy and Outlook - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas production capacity, particularly in Cambodia and Vietnam, which is expected to contribute significantly to revenue and profit in the coming years [29][30] - The outdoor equipment market is projected to grow from approximately 26.29 billion USD in 2024 to 34.9 billion USD by 2029, indicating a favorable market environment for the company [16][19] - The company aims to maintain high growth rates in its key product categories, with expectations of continued revenue and profit increases driven by its global expansion strategy [30][47]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong revenue and profit growth for 2024, with significant improvements in various financial metrics, driven by market expansion and optimization of product structure [1][2][5] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.002 billion yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders of 185 million yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 171 million yuan, representing year-over-year increases of 21.75%, 41.67%, and 25.04% respectively [1] - For Q4 2024, the company recorded revenue of 212 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 39.44%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 22 million yuan, reversing a loss from the previous year [1][2] - The gross margin for 2024 was 33.72%, with a slight decrease of 0.12 percentage points year-over-year, while the net profit margin increased by 2.6 percentage points [2] Product Performance - The company saw significant growth in overseas production capacity, particularly in the luggage segment, with production and sales increasing by 83.6% and 56.3% year-over-year respectively [3] - Revenue from various product categories for 2024 included air beds at 586 million yuan, luggage at 204 million yuan, headrest cushions at 70 million yuan, and others at 134 million yuan, with respective year-over-year growth rates of 13.9%, 30.9%, 15.7%, and 48% [2] Cost Management - The company maintained stable gross and expense ratios throughout the year, with a notable increase in profit margins in Q4 2024 [2] - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 357 million yuan and net profit attributable to shareholders of 96 million yuan, reflecting year-over-year increases of 30.4% and 148.29% respectively [3] Inventory and Dividends - The company experienced an increase in accounts receivable, inventory, and accounts payable in 2024, with inventory turnover days decreasing year-over-year [4] - The proposed dividend for 2024 is 0.197 yuan per share, with a cash dividend rate of 15.06%, up from 10.09% in 2023 [4] Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued improvement in overseas profit margins as production capacity ramps up, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 of 260 million yuan and 352 million yuan respectively, indicating year-over-year growth of 40.6% and 35.1% [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market index [7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth in 2024, with a projected revenue of CNY 1.0 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 22%, and a net profit of CNY 190 million, reflecting a 42% increase [1]. - The company is actively expanding its product categories, with new products anticipated to drive rapid growth in 2025 [3]. - The company has a competitive advantage due to its integrated domestic supply chain and successful international production base expansion [4]. - The financial forecasts for 2025 to 2027 indicate strong growth in both revenue and net profit, with net profit expected to reach CNY 272 million in 2025, a 47.1% increase year-on-year [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is projected to have a gross margin of 33.7%, with a net profit margin of 18.9% [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of CNY 360 million, a 30% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 100 million, marking a 148% increase [2]. - The company plans to distribute cash dividends totaling CNY 28 million in 2024, with a payout ratio of approximately 15% [1]. Product and Market Expansion - The company has established stable long-term partnerships with major clients, including Decathlon, and expects its international sales to grow significantly [3]. - The revenue breakdown for 2024 shows that inflatable mattresses, bags, and other categories are expected to contribute significantly, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 14%, 31%, and 48% [3]. Operational Efficiency - The company is enhancing its production capabilities in various regions, including China, Vietnam, and Cambodia, which is expected to improve profitability [4]. - Inventory levels have increased, with a year-on-year rise of 34.4% by the end of 2024, but inventory turnover days have decreased, indicating effective inventory management [4]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued strong growth in its core inflatable mattress business and expects production capacity in overseas subsidiaries to ramp up smoothly [5]. - The financial projections suggest a robust growth trajectory, with expected revenues of CNY 1.37 billion in 2025, a 36.7% increase from 2024 [6].