证券研究报告·公司点评报告·中药Ⅱ 济川药业（600566） 2025 半年报点评：业绩阶段性承压，创新管 线逐步进入收获期 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 9,655 | 8,017 | 6,290 | 6,806 | 7,392 | | 同比（%） | 7.32 | (16.96) | (21.54) | 8.19 | 8.62 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2,823 | 2,532 | 1,584 | 1,782 | 2,020 | | 同比（%） | 30.04 | (10.32) | (37.42) | 12.49 | 13.32 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 3.07 | 2.75 | 1.72 | 1.94 | 2.19 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 8.63 | 9.63 | 15.38 | 13.67 | 12.07 | [Table_Tag] [Tabl ...

事件评论 收入利润明显下滑。报告期内，受终端市场需求变化，公司蒲地蓝消炎口服液、小儿豉翘清热颗粒销售 收入同比减少，以及雷贝拉唑钠肠溶胶囊受医药集采政策影响，导致公司收入及净利润下滑。 销售费用有效控制，盈利水平小幅下降。2025 年上半年公司毛利率75.68%（同比-3.89pct），归母净利 率26.35%（同比-6.82pct）。2025H1 公司销售费用9.77 亿元（同比-39.33%），销售费率35.54%（同 比-4.37pct）；管理费用2.10 亿元（同比+10.56%），管理费率7.63%（同比+2.93pct）；研发费用1.90 亿元（同比-8.79%），研发费率6.91%（同比+1.75pct）。销售费用同比下降主要是由于2025H1 市场推 广费得到有效控制。 产品具有权威认可度，研发布局逐渐均衡。 2025H1 公司西他沙星原料药上市申请获批；完成 1.1 类中 药创新药小儿便通颗粒上市申报并且药品审评中心已受理；获得JX004P搽剂临床试验批件；进入临床 三期项目1 项，累计提交中国发明专利申请8 件、PCT 国际专利申请1 件，获得中国发明专利授权2 件；蒲地蓝消炎口服液、小儿 ...

济川药业 20250824 摘要 2025 年上半年智昌药业营收同比下降 47.43%，净利润同比下降 42.39%，主要受呼吸类疾病发病率下降及渠道库存周期影响，蒲地蓝 和小儿豉翘销售额大幅下滑，集采也对雷贝拉唑肠溶胶囊收入造成负面 影响。 零售端承压，占比从去年同期的 33%降至 29%，核心产品蒲地蓝和小 儿豉翘零售占比显著下降。毛利率因成本降幅小于收入降幅而下降 4 个 百分点至 75.7%，期间费用率因收入下降而上升 2.7 个百分点至 48%。 公司积极布局新产品，小儿便通颗粒已完成三期临床并申报 NDA，柴葛 退热预计明年申报 NDA。同时，公司通过 BD 合作引入创新药管线，以 实现新老产品衔接，并拓展老龄化相关疾病领域。 普地蓝和小儿豉翘占公司整体收入的 65%-70%，受呼吸道疾病发病率 下降和渠道库存影响，零售端表现疲软。公司看好流感市场，计划通过 市场教育推广新获批的流感创新药玛西洛沙韦片，预计其终值销售额可 达 10-15 亿元。 Q&A 请介绍智昌药业 2025 年上半年的整体营收和利润情况。 2025 年上半年，智昌药业实现营收 27.49 亿元，同比下降 31.87%。归母净 ...

Core Viewpoint - The transition of control at Jichuan Pharmaceutical has led to a dramatic response from shareholders, with only 34 out of 19 billion yuan in margin deposits being accepted, highlighting the company's significant challenges in product performance and financial stability [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, Jichuan Pharmaceutical reported revenue of 8.017 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 16.96%, and a net profit of 2.532 billion yuan, down 10.32% [1] - For Q1 2025, the company experienced further declines, with revenue of 1.525 billion yuan, a 36.51% decrease year-on-year, and a net profit of 440 million yuan, down 47.91% [1] Product Challenges - The company's key products, which previously supported a compound annual growth rate of 21.49% in net profit, are now facing significant declines, particularly the flagship product, Pudilan Oral Liquid, which saw a 24% drop in sales in 2019 after regulatory changes [2] - The product has been removed from the medical insurance directories of 13 provinces, leading to a more than 20% decline in revenue from heat-clearing and detoxifying products in 2024 [2] - The digestive product, Rabeprazole Sodium Enteric-Coated Capsules, has lost market share due to price reductions from national procurement, with inventory levels rising by 23.85% in 2024 [3] Operational Efficiency - Jichuan Pharmaceutical's inventory turnover days and accounts receivable turnover days reached new highs of 114.61 days and 110.01 days, respectively, indicating a decline in operational efficiency [3] - The net cash flow from operating activities as a percentage of total revenue fell sharply from 35.88% in 2023 to 27.15% in 2024, marking a three-year low [3] Marketing vs. R&D Investment - The company has prioritized marketing over research and development, spending 2.954 billion yuan on sales expenses in 2024, which accounted for 36.85% of revenue, while R&D investment was only 445 million yuan, representing 5.55% of revenue [4] - The disparity is evident as the company distributed 5 billion yuan in dividends over five years, with the controlling family benefiting significantly, raising concerns about the sustainability of this cash distribution model [5] Future Prospects - Jichuan Pharmaceutical's pipeline includes the pediatric constipation drug, which faces multiple commercialization challenges, and other innovative drugs that are still in the application stage [6] - The company must address a significant revenue gap due to the underperformance of its key products, as new drugs may not provide immediate relief from the current downturn [6]

Group 1 - Jichuan Pharmaceutical's "Children's Constipation Granules" has received a registration application acceptance notice, marking it as the first innovative traditional Chinese medicine specifically for treating pediatric constipation [1] - The product is expected to be the first Class 1 pediatric-specific drug for constipation following the release of the clinical research guidelines in 2024 [1] Group 2 - Innovent Biologics' drug Daberat® has become the first KRAS G12C inhibitor approved in Macau, providing a new targeted therapy for patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer [2] - In a Phase II clinical trial, Daberat® demonstrated an objective response rate (ORR) of 49.1%, a median progression-free survival (PFS) of 9.7 months, and a 12-month overall survival (OS) rate of 54.4% [2] Group 3 - Sinovac Biotech's special shareholders meeting approved the election of 10 new directors proposed by SAIF Partners, who committed to support the company's dividend distribution plan [3] - The new board members aim to work closely with management to restore trading of the company's common stock and enhance long-term shareholder value [3] Group 4 - Ganli Pharmaceutical expects a net profit increase of 100.73% to 114.12% for the first half of 2025, with projected profits between 600 million to 640 million yuan [4] - The company achieved market share expansion through two rounds of insulin procurement, with a significant 32.6% increase in agreement volume during the 2024 procurement [4] Group 5 - Ascentage Pharma's new Bcl-2 inhibitor, Lisangtuo® (APG-2575), has been conditionally approved for marketing in China, becoming the first Bcl-2 inhibitor for chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma [5] - This marks Ascentage Pharma's second innovative drug to be approved and enter the commercialization stage [5] Group 6 - United Biomedical's UBT37034 injection has received FDA approval for clinical trials, showing significant weight reduction effects when combined with GLP-1 analogs in preclinical studies [6] - The combination therapy demonstrated superior weight loss effects compared to other investigational drugs [6]

Core Viewpoint - Jichuan Pharmaceutical is facing significant challenges with declining sales and profits from its core products, leading to a search for new growth opportunities through innovative drug development [2][10]. Group 1: Company Performance - Jichuan Pharmaceutical's revenue and net profit are projected to decline in 2024, with a revenue drop of 16.96% to 8.017 billion yuan and a net profit decrease of 10.32% to 2.532 billion yuan [6][7]. - The company's flagship product, Pudilan Anti-inflammatory Oral Liquid, has seen a significant decline in sales due to regulatory changes and removal from various medical insurance lists, contributing to the overall revenue drop [4][6]. - The sales volume of Pudilan Anti-inflammatory Oral Liquid fell by 24% in 2019 compared to the previous year, marking the first decline in revenue and net profit since its listing [4]. Group 2: Product Challenges - The core product, Rebeprazole Sodium Enteric-coated Capsules, has been impacted by price reductions due to national procurement policies, leading to a significant drop in market share and sales [8][10]. - Pediatric product, Xiaer Chiqiao Qingre Granules, is also experiencing sluggish growth, further straining the company's revenue [8][10]. Group 3: Innovation and Future Prospects - Jichuan Pharmaceutical is pinning hopes on the innovative drug Xiaer Biantong Granules, which has received a notice of acceptance for market application, potentially filling a gap in the pediatric constipation treatment market [2][10]. - The company has invested approximately 51.42 million yuan in the development of Xiaer Biantong Granules, which is based on a patented formula aimed at treating pediatric constipation [10][12]. - Other innovative drugs in development include a flu treatment and a long-acting growth hormone, both of which have received regulatory acceptance [12]. Group 4: R&D Investment - Jichuan Pharmaceutical has been criticized for its historically low R&D investment, which was only 5.55% of total revenue in 2024, compared to over 8% for some competitors [12][13]. - The company’s sales expenses were significantly higher at 36.85% of total revenue, indicating a need for a more balanced approach between marketing and research and development [12].