Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious investment outlook for the Chinese traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) industry, highlighting short-term pressures and long-term quality improvement opportunities [2]. Core Insights - The TCM industry is experiencing stable demand due to an aging population, with the market size expected to exceed 700 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 6.6% [4][11]. - The financial performance of TCM listed companies is under pressure, with high sales expenses eroding profits and increasing internal differentiation among companies [11][25]. - The competitive landscape is characterized by a high concentration of revenue and profits among the top tier of companies, which hold over half of the industry's income and profits due to proprietary formulas and brand advantages [20][22]. Industry Overview - The TCM industry has a well-established supply chain, with stable demand driven by an increasing elderly population, projected to reach 220 million by the end of 2024, a 1.36% increase from 2023 [4]. - The industry is facing significant price fluctuations due to inventory destocking, upstream capacity changes, and downstream procurement policies [4][5]. - The TCM manufacturing sector consists of approximately 5,000 companies, primarily located in regions such as Jilin, Guangdong, Anhui, and Henan [4]. Financial Performance of TCM Companies - As of 2024, there are 70 listed TCM manufacturing companies, with an average annual revenue of about 340 billion yuan and an average profit of around 34 billion yuan [11][13]. - The overall profit margin for TCM companies is below 20%, indicating a challenging financial environment [11]. - The sales gross margin for sample companies remains stable at around 55%, while the sales expense ratio is approximately 24% [14][18]. Competitive Landscape - The first tier of TCM companies, including Yunnan Baiyao and Tongrentang, dominate the market, accounting for over 52% of total revenue and profits [22][25]. - The second tier includes regional leaders with a more diverse product range, while the third tier consists of smaller companies with concentrated product lines [23][24]. - The financial data shows that the first tier companies have significantly higher equity scales, providing a solid foundation for market expansion and R&D [26]. Industry Policies - Recent policies emphasize innovation and quality improvement in the TCM sector, with initiatives aimed at enhancing regulatory frameworks and promoting high-quality development [27][28]. - The government has outlined plans to establish national laboratories and improve the quality of TCM products through stricter regulations [28][29]. TCM Procurement Situation - The gradual implementation of TCM procurement policies has led to significant price reductions, with the average price drop reaching 68% in recent rounds of procurement [31][34]. - The procurement process is designed to promote standardization and quality control, which may lead to increased market concentration among leading companies [31][40]. - The report notes that the procurement policies have created challenges for TCM companies, particularly regarding profitability due to cost pressures [40]. TCM Innovation Drug Development - The TCM sector has seen a surge in innovation, with a notable increase in clinical trial applications and new drug approvals, particularly in areas such as digestion and respiratory health [41][42]. - The number of IND applications for TCM has grown significantly, indicating a robust pipeline for future product development [42][43].

同时，依法严厉打击不明码标价、价格欺诈、哄抬价格等各类价格违法行为。近年来，全省共查处相关 违法案件17起，没收违法所得6117.62元，罚款6.32万元，形成有力震慑。为全面掌握药品流通环节价格 情况，省市场监管局组建4个专项调研组，深入西宁市、海南藏族自治州、海西蒙古族藏族自治州、海 北藏族自治州等地开展实地调研，指导药品经营单位合理确定进销差价，推动价格回归合理区间，减轻 群众用药负担。 此外，聚焦药品价格监管中的难点堵点，打破部门壁垒，强化协同联动，积极推动建立与医保、药监等 部门的信息共享机制、线索移送机制和联合执法机制。通过定期会商、数据互通、联合检查等方式，打 通监管链条中的"梗阻"，形成"横向协同、纵向贯通"的监管合力，推动药品价格治理从"单兵作 战"向"协同共治"转变，提升治理效能。全省市场监管部门将持续加大药品价格执法监管力度，强化部 门协作，深化源头治理，加大典型案件曝光和违法惩处力度，以更高标准、更实举措、更强担当，坚决 维护药品市场价格秩序稳定。 去年以来，全省各级市场监管部门聚焦群众刚需药品价格动态，紧盯零售药店等关键环节，持续强化监 管举措、创新监管方式、提升监管效能，推动药品价 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue of 3.932 billion yuan, down 32.27% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.022 billion yuan, down 46.27% year-on-year [3][9]. - The third quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 1.183 billion yuan, a decrease of 33.17% year-on-year, and a net profit of 298 million yuan, down 47.19% year-on-year [3][9]. - Despite the decline, the company is expected to see a recovery in Q4 2025 [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first nine months of 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 77.68%, a decrease of 0.86 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 25.19%, down 6.69 percentage points year-on-year [9]. - Sales expenses were effectively controlled, amounting to 362 million yuan in Q3 2025, a decrease of 37.65% year-on-year, with a sales expense ratio of 30.57% [9]. - The company has a diversified product portfolio with several products recognized in authoritative medication guidelines and clinical textbooks [9]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for the company's net profit for 2025-2027 is 1.443 billion yuan, 1.567 billion yuan, and 1.641 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.57 yuan, 1.70 yuan, and 1.78 yuan [9].

Core Viewpoint - Jichuan Pharmaceutical reported a significant decline in both revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, primarily due to changes in end-market demand affecting sales of key products [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved an operating revenue of 3.932 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 32.27% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.022 billion yuan, down 46.27% year-on-year [1] Sales Impact - Sales revenue for key products such as Pudilan Anti-inflammatory Oral Liquid and Children's Chiqiao Qingre Granules decreased compared to the previous year, contributing to the overall decline in net profit [1]

Summary of Jichuan Pharmaceutical Conference Call Company Overview - Jichuan Pharmaceutical is currently positioned with a high cost-performance ratio, indicating a favorable future trend for investors to focus on and allocate resources towards [2][3] Key Products and Sales Strategies - The company launched the product "Jike Shun" in July 2025, which has received online sales permission from JD Health. An increase in flu incidence in Q4 is expected to boost its sales [2][4] - Key products include: - "Pudilan Oral Liquid" focusing on expanding the outpatient market - "Children's Chiqiao Qingre Granules," an exclusive pediatric product - The company also has secondary products such as "Huanglong Cough Granules," "San'ao Tablets," and "Chaihu Granules," forming a strong product matrix in the respiratory field, reinforcing its leading position in OTC channels and pediatrics [5] Research and Development Pipeline - The company has ongoing research pipelines, including PDE4 and long-acting growth hormone products, which are in the late stages of development and warrant attention for their progress [2][4] Financial Performance and Cash Flow - As of now, the company has nearly 10 billion in cash reserves, with a projected dividend payout ratio of 76% for 2024. This financial strength supports the investment case for Jichuan Pharmaceutical [6] Regulatory Environment and Market Impact - The recent revisions to the national essential drug management measures are expected to advance in Q4 or after the next National People's Congress, potentially enhancing inpatient volumes. The market's expectations in this regard are not yet fully realized, making it a point of interest for investors [7] Overall Market Outlook - Despite a significant decline in the first half of 2024 due to high comparative bases, the third quarter showed improvement, indicating a positive trend for the company's overall profitability moving forward [3]

Core Viewpoint - Jichuan Pharmaceutical is focusing on enhancing its brand and offline coverage for its daily chemical products, with significant progress in terminal store coverage and product approvals [1] Group 1: Product Development and Approval - Pudilan Oral Liquid has been approved in 2024 as a dual-category drug, allowing it to be classified as both a prescription and an over-the-counter medication. The OTC packaging is now available in major retail pharmacies nationwide [1] - The new chemical drug, Marcilosavir Tablets, developed in collaboration with Nanjing Zhengxiang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., received approval in July 2025. This product is designed to alleviate flu symptoms with a single oral dose, although it will require a market development period before launch [1] Group 2: Market Strategy - The company emphasizes brand building and offline coverage for its daily chemical products by precisely targeting core markets, deepening existing customer engagement, and expanding new customer acquisition through a replicable benchmark model [1] - The offline terminal coverage has reached thousands of stores, indicating a strong commitment to increasing market presence [1]

Core Insights - The 18th Health Industry Ecological Conference recognized Jichuan Pharmaceutical's products, Pudilan Xiaoyan Oral Liquid and Children's Chiqiao Qingre Granules (Tongbei), in the "2025 Healthy China Brand List" and "2025 Healthy China Brand Value List" for their outstanding quality and consumer trust [1] Group 1: Product Recognition - Pudilan Xiaoyan Oral Liquid is widely applicable for both children and adults, consistently ranking among the top brands in the market for heat-clearing and detoxifying traditional Chinese medicine [2] - The product has received numerous accolades, including "Highest Recommended Brand by Pharmacy Staff" and "Top 10 Best-Selling Drug Brands in Healthy China," reflecting its strong market presence and consumer approval [2] - Starting in 2024, Pudilan Xiaoyan Oral Liquid will be approved as a dual-category drug, allowing consumers to purchase it over-the-counter without a prescription, enhancing accessibility [2] Group 2: Children's Chiqiao Qingre Granules (Tongbei) - Children's Chiqiao Qingre Granules, based on the experience of renowned traditional Chinese medicine practitioner Professor Li Shaochuan, is a leading medication for children's colds [4] - The product has achieved high market share in urban public hospitals, retail pharmacies, and online platforms, earning multiple awards such as "Most Recommended Children's Medicine Brand" and "Top-Selling Brand in the Retail Drug Market" [5] - The recent approval of the syrup formulation of Children's Chiqiao Qingre Granules meets the differentiated medication needs of children, enhancing patient experience [5]

Core Viewpoint - Jichuan Pharmaceutical's financial performance continues to decline, with significant drops in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, raising concerns about the company's future prospects due to challenges from core product sales and ongoing medical procurement policies [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Jichuan Pharmaceutical reported revenue of 2.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.9%, and a net profit of 724 million yuan, down 45.9% [2]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 1.22 billion yuan, a decline of 25.03% year-on-year and 19.8% quarter-on-quarter, with net profit at 284 million yuan, down 42.39% year-on-year and 35.5% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Core Products and Market Challenges - The sales of Jichuan's key products, Pudilan Anti-inflammatory Oral Liquid and Children's Chiqiao Qingre Granules, have significantly decreased, with their combined sales accounting for only 49.51% of total revenue in the first half of 2025, down from 60.12% in 2024 [2][3]. - The decline in sales is attributed to changes in market demand and the impact of medical procurement policies, which have affected the pricing and availability of these products [2][4]. Historical Context - Jichuan's revenue surged from 7.63 billion yuan in 2021 to 9.655 billion yuan in 2023 due to increased demand for respiratory disease treatments, but has since fallen to a historical low in 2025 [3]. - The company's core product, Pudilan, has been removed from several provincial medical insurance catalogs, leading to decreased patient purchasing willingness [3]. Competitive Landscape - The market for Jichuan's products is becoming increasingly competitive, with numerous alternatives available, including well-known brands that pose a threat to Pudilan's market share [4][7]. - Jichuan's other important product, Rabeprazole Sodium Enteric-Coated Capsules, faces pricing pressures from national procurement policies, which could further impact its market position [4]. Strategic Initiatives and Challenges - Jichuan is attempting to diversify by entering the personal care and innovative drug markets, but results have been limited, with personal care products generating only 89 million yuan in sales in 2023 [5][6]. - The company has initiated collaborations for innovative drug development, but faces stiff competition in these areas, making it difficult to establish a strong market presence [6][7]. Research and Development Focus - Jichuan has historically prioritized marketing over research and development, with R&D expenses constituting only 5.55% of total revenue in 2024, which raises concerns about its ability to innovate effectively [6][8]. - The company has several products in the pipeline, but the competitive nature of the market poses significant challenges to their success [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - There is a significant price discrepancy between online and offline pharmacies for the same medications, with some prices being more than three times higher in physical stores compared to online platforms [1][2][5]. Group 1: Price Discrepancy - A survey of ten pharmacies revealed that the same medication can have a price difference of over three times between online and offline sales [1][6]. - For example, the "仁和" artificial cow bile metronidazole capsules cost 8.68 yuan online but 32 yuan offline, resulting in a difference of 23.32 yuan [1][6]. - Other examples include "可益甘" artificial cow bile metronidazole capsules priced at 5.8 yuan online and 15.8 yuan offline, and "百多邦" mupirocin ointment at 19.2 yuan online versus 23.2 yuan offline [5][6]. Group 2: Reasons for Price Differences - Pharmacy staff indicated that online prices are often lower due to platform subsidies, although not all medications follow this trend [2][9]. - Consumers have the option to choose between online and offline purchases based on their preferences, but online shopping may incur additional delivery fees [2][9]. - Legal experts noted that the price difference alone does not constitute price fraud; it must be assessed in the context of whether the pharmacy transparently communicates the reasons for the price difference [11][12]. Group 3: Regulatory Responses - The National Medical Insurance Administration has issued directives to compare offline pharmacy prices with online platforms to address unreasonable pricing [10]. - Local regulations have been established, such as in Shaanxi Province, where offline prices cannot exceed 20% of the online price displayed by the same pharmacy [10]. - Zhejiang Province has mandated that online prices should not exceed 1.3 times the listed price, emphasizing the need for price consistency across different sales channels [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Jichuan Pharmaceutical is maintained as "Buy" [1][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to reach an inflection point in performance, supported by high dividends and business development catalysts [1]. - The first half of 2025 saw a significant decline in revenue and net profit due to high base effects from the flu market and price reductions from centralized procurement [7]. - The company has effectively controlled marketing expenses, leading to a 39.33% year-on-year decrease in sales expenses for the first half of 2025 [7]. - There is an expectation for sequential improvement in performance in the second half of 2025 as inventory levels normalize and terminal demand increases [7]. - The company has consistently increased its cash dividend payout ratio, reaching 75.90% in 2024, indicating a strong commitment to shareholder returns [7]. - Jichuan Pharmaceutical is focusing on enhancing its product pipeline through research and collaboration, with several new products expected to launch in the coming years [7]. - The forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is projected to be 18.03 billion, 19.86 billion, and 23.11 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.96, 2.16, and 2.51 [7]. Financial Summary - For the first half of 2025, Jichuan Pharmaceutical reported revenue of 2.749 billion (down 31.87% year-on-year) and a net profit of 724 million (down 45.87% year-on-year) [7]. - The company anticipates a revenue decline of 16.96% in 2024, followed by a further decline of 20.53% in 2025, before a recovery in subsequent years [3][7]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 13.18, 11.96, and 10.28 respectively, indicating a potential for valuation improvement as earnings recover [3][7].