证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2025-07-31 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观点评 20250730：增强政策灵活性预见性——学习 7 月政治局会议精 神 7 月 30 日，中共中央政治局召开会议，会议分析研究当前经济形势，部 署下半年经济工作。会议决定今年 10 月在北京召开中国共产党第二十届 中央委员会第四次全体会议，研究关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五 个五年规划的建议。 会议决定 10 月召开二十届四中全会，研究制定"十 五五规划"。参考"十四五"时间线，预计今年 10 月四中全会审议通过 《建议》，明年 3 月全国人大批准实施《纲要》。2020 年 10 月 29 日，十 九届五中全会审议通过《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十四 个五年规划和二〇三五年远景目标的建议》；2021 年 3 月，根据《建议》 编制的《中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十四个五年（2021－2025 年）规划和 2035 年远景目标纲要》由全国人大批准实施。 会议充分肯 定上半年的经济成绩，同时看到"当前我国经济运行依然面临不少风险挑 战"。上半年经济增长 5.3% ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, with significant growth in high-voltage direct current and industrial control sectors [8] - Revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 8.347 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.43%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.964 billion yuan, up 14.19% year-on-year [8] - The company is expected to maintain a revenue growth rate of over 40% in the high-voltage direct current relay segment due to increased sales from domestic and international clients [8] - The industrial relay segment is also anticipated to see growth as overseas clients begin to replenish inventory, particularly in Europe [8] - The company is experiencing strong demand in the new energy, automotive, and signal relay markets, with expectations of continued growth in these areas [8] - The company's strategic focus on high-quality development and diversification is expected to drive long-term growth [8] - The financial outlook remains positive, with projected net profits of 1.985 billion yuan, 2.316 billion yuan, and 2.689 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 21.72%, 16.67%, and 16.12% [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to reach 16.679 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 18.27% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is expected to be 1.36 yuan per share in 2025, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 17.36 [1] - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable around 36.27% in 2025, with a net profit margin of 11.90% [9]

宏发股份 20250729 摘要 宏发股份 2025 年上半年整体业务增长约 1%，其中新能源汽车领域表 现突出，高压直流继电器业务增速超预期，主要受益于车载继电器竞争 优势加强及新车型采用，而家电业务保持稳定增长。 高压直流继电器上半年出货 26 亿，同比增长超 40%，高压控制盒增长 接近 200%，主要得益于竞争对手工况不稳定及新车型首选宏发产品， 预计未来一两年内高压控制盒业务规模将达 8-10 亿元。 欧洲市场高压直流继电器增速较快，收入占比逐渐提高，主要受益于欧 洲电动化加速渗透及成功进入雷诺等主机厂供应链，德国工厂已布局高 压直流产品生产线。 工业继电器市场呈现恢复性增长，上半年出货同比增长 26.9%，主要受 益于新能源相关工业客户需求快速增长，海外市场特别是欧洲和美国需 求增加明显。 低压开关产品上半年发货小幅增长，其中元器件部分增长约 10%，但成 套设备受地产行业影响下降约 20%。 Q&A 宏发公司在 2025 年上半年的整体经营状况如何？ 2025 年上半年，宏发公司在复杂的宏观环境下实现了高质量增长。各主要业 务板块表现良好，特别是在新能源、汽车和工业领域，增长率分别达到 20%、 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance met market expectations, with revenue of 39.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.35%, and a net profit of 4.11 billion yuan, up 15.47% year-on-year [8] - The company benefits from the growth in high-voltage direct current and automotive products, with expected growth rates of over 30% and 15% respectively for 2025 [8] - The "75+" strategy is entering a new phase, diversifying growth drivers through new product categories and markets, with a projected business scale of 500 million yuan [8] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.985 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.72% [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is forecasted to reach 16.679 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 18.27% [1] - The diluted EPS is expected to be 1.90 yuan per share in 2025, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 17.58 [1] - The company's net profit is projected to grow to 2.316 billion yuan by 2026, with a growth rate of 16.67% [1][9]