证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 宏观深度报告 20260303 企业出海：破除内卷、提振内需与文化输出 2026 年 03 月 03 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李昌萌 执业证书：S0600524120007 lichm@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《伊朗冲突还有哪些变数？——海外 周报 20260302 》 2026-03-02 《伊朗问题对股债商汇等大类资产的 影响 》 2026-03-02 东吴证券研究所 1 / 18 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 核心观点：受国内部分行业产能过剩、全球贸易保护主义抬头以及供应 链重构等多重因素影响，近些年我国越来越多的企业选择通过出海寻求 破局的机会。一方面，高技术企业的加速出海使得我国企业利润率整体 有所提升，同时也部分缓解了国内"内卷式"竞争的局面；而另一方面， 服务和文化的加速出海正成为传播中国历史文化，向全球讲好中国故事 的重要载体。在双循环新发展格局下，出海已经成为了企业发展和竞争 增长的"必选项"。 ...

近日，山东理工大学临沂研究院签约仪式在临沂隆重举行。活动现场，山东理工大学与市委组织部签署共建临沂研究院合作协议，同时与山东临工正式签 署战略合作协议，标志着双方校企合作、产学研融合迈入全新阶段。 市委常委、组织部部长肖永涛，副市长、市政府党组成员孙德士，山东理工大学党委书记于红波，山东临工执行总经理、常务副总经理宋晓颖出席仪式并 签约。市委常委、副市长，沂河新区党工委书记苟宏水出席相关活动。 作为山东省工程机械产业链、临沂市高端工程装备产业链"双链主"企业，山东临工始终坚持创新驱动、人才强企战略，与山东理工大学保持长期稳定、深 度互信的良好合作关系。此次战略合作，将以山东理工大学临沂研究院为核心载体，聚焦行业关键技术、产业发展需求，在技术研发攻关、科研成果转 化、高端人才培养、实习实训基地建设、智能制造升级等领域开展全方位、深层次务实合作，推动高校科研优势与企业产业优势深度融合，打通"技术创 新—成果转化—产业落地"全链条，为企业高质量发展、行业技术进步、区域经济升级注入强劲动能。 活动期间，于红波书记一行先后走进山东临工智能化生产车间、临工博物馆、临工智科，实地考察企业智能制造、产品布局、数字化转型及企业 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The mechanical equipment industry is expected to benefit from accelerated industrialization in emerging markets, particularly in Brazil and Saudi Arabia, with significant demand growth in capital goods such as power equipment, construction machinery, and mining machinery. However, the import share from the US has not increased [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Investment Opportunities**: The investment opportunities in the mechanical industry for 2026 are primarily focused on two areas: equipment exports and technological leadership. Emerging markets are showing increased demand for Chinese machinery, particularly in capital goods [2]. - **Technological Growth**: Emerging sectors like AI hardware and humanoid robots are expected to continue leading the market, with a sustained upward trend in 2026. The cyclical industries such as photovoltaic equipment and general automation are closely tied to the domestic manufacturing cycle [1][2]. - **Engineering Machinery Recovery**: The engineering machinery sector is poised for recovery, with domestic demand expected to rise as the cycle bottomed out in 2024-2025. The competitiveness of Chinese engineering machinery products is increasing, facilitating further international expansion [2][5]. Additional Important Content - **Stock Selection Focus**: Investors should pay attention to emerging growth areas (AI hardware, humanoid robots), cyclical industries (photovoltaic equipment, general automation), and traditional industries at inflection points (engineering machinery) that benefit from the overseas interest rate decline [1][2]. - **AI Equipment Industry**: The AI equipment supply chain is highlighted as a highly certain industry trend, with significant performance already reflected in financial reports. Companies like Dingtai and Zhongtung are expected to benefit from overseas demand and new materials [11]. - **PCB Industry Outlook**: The PCB industry is projected to experience significant growth from 2026 to 2027, with a potential market space increase of around 10 times compared to 2025. This growth is driven by new technologies and materials [12]. - **Engineering Machinery Market Dynamics**: The engineering machinery sector is expected to see strong growth in both domestic and international markets, with leading companies like SANY and XCMG focusing on internationalization strategies [14]. Specific Investment Directions - **Emerging Sectors**: Key sectors to watch include wind and lithium batteries, general automation, and AI-related industries, which are expected to show strong performance in 2026 [15][16]. - **Recommended Stocks**: Specific companies to consider include Zhongtung, Huarui Precision, Oke Yi, and Xinxin Co., which are positioned well within the AI and manufacturing sectors [18][19]. Overall Industry Trend - The mechanical industry is characterized by technological growth and an export cycle, with AI and related sectors expected to lead the market. Export-oriented companies with product, channel, and cost advantages are likely to find more opportunities in the global market [20].

Core Insights - The industrial value added by the top ten provinces, including Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Zhejiang, accounts for over 60% of the national total, positioning them as the economic "ballast" of China [1] - The future development paths of these provinces will define the new battlefield for Chinese manufacturing and provide key directions for industrial product marketing [1] Group 1: Transition from Scale to Quality - The core planning of each province is shifting from scale expansion to quality enhancement, with Guangdong focusing on empowering pillar industries through technologies like "AI + robotics" and planning for future industries such as quantum technology and biomanufacturing [3] - Jiangsu aims to advance its "Digital Jiangsu" initiative, having ranked first in the national integration development index for ten consecutive years, with a focus on integrating research and product development through "AI+" actions [3] - Shandong has set specific goals for coastal steel production capacity, aiming to transform its "volume advantage" into "quality superiority," indicating that industrial product marketing must align with the real demands of industrial chain upgrades and technological transformations [3] Group 2: Regional Collaborative Development - Regional collaboration is highlighted, with Anhui viewing the 14th Five-Year Plan as a critical period for catching up, leveraging shared technological innovation resources and industrial chain division within the Yangtze River Delta [3] - Hubei aims to accelerate its development as a strategic support point for the rise of the central region, while Guangdong is committed to collaborating with Hong Kong and Macau to make the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area a powerful engine for broader regional influence [3] - This collaboration breaks regional boundaries, requiring industrial product marketing to have a broader vision and find positioning within cross-regional industrial ecosystems [3] Group 3: Global Competitive Landscape - Top industrial clusters are targeting the global stage, with Hunan's engineering machinery cluster being cultivated as a world-class example, transitioning from "national" to "world-class" through collaboration among Changsha, Zhuzhou, and Xiangtan [4] - Jiangsu has established a strategic framework of "one center, one base, one hub" (industrial technology innovation center, advanced manufacturing base, and bidirectional open hub) to become a crucial site for new productive forces and global resource allocation [4] - This indicates that the competitive coordinates for industrial product marketing are now global, necessitating companies to consider how their products and technologies can integrate into and even lead the global industrial chain's value creation [4] Group 4: Platforms for Industrial Product Innovation - In this context, platforms aimed at promoting efficient connections for industrial products and showcasing innovative value are becoming increasingly important, such as the "Vision Factory - National Industrial Product Live Streaming Base," which aims to create a centralized selection space for global industrial products [5] - This platform provides a year-round display space for innovative products, with policies supporting innovation by allowing companies to apply for free entry into the offline exhibition area if their products possess core creativity and competitiveness [5] - The base is equipped with over a hundred professional hosts familiar with the industrial field, offering free live explanations, short video production, and multi-channel content promotion, with costs incurred only upon actual sales through the platform [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant growth in China's construction machinery import and export trade, indicating a recovery in the industry, particularly in exports, which have seen substantial increases in recent months [1][2]. Import and Export Data - In December 2025, China's construction machinery trade amounted to $6.63 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26%, with imports at $0.212 billion (down 1.79%) and exports at $6.417 billion (up 27.2%) [1][2]. - For the entire year of 2025, the cumulative trade value reached $62.743 billion, reflecting a 13.2% increase year-on-year, with imports totaling $2.575 billion (down 0.63%) and exports at $60.169 billion (up 13.8%) [2]. Monthly Trade Trends - Monthly trade data shows fluctuations in both imports and exports throughout 2025, with notable increases in export values in December compared to previous months [2]. - For instance, in November 2025, the trade value was $5.4 billion, with exports at $5.23 billion (up 16.6%) and imports at $0.17 billion (down 11.9%) [2]. Industry Insights - The article discusses the potential recovery of the construction machinery industry, with a focus on the transition to "National IV" standards starting December 1, 2025 [5]. - It also notes a significant increase in exports, which have surged over 70% despite a continuous decline in domestic sales for 13 months [5]. - The article mentions an improvement in construction activity in February, suggesting a warming outlook for the industry [10]. Market Dynamics - The article emphasizes the positive market dynamics, including improved operating rates and a strong expectation for domestic demand recovery, driven by increased credit availability in January [10]. - It also highlights expert opinions on the industry's development and the push for new energy solutions in construction machinery [10].

Core Viewpoint - China Longgong (03339) anticipates a significant increase in net profit for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, with projections between RMB 1.25 billion and RMB 1.33 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 23% to 31% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The expected net profit increase is primarily driven by steady growth in both domestic and international sales, particularly the contribution from export business [1] - The company has successfully developed new high-value-added products, which have become the main drivers of profit growth [1] - Efforts in quality improvement, cost control, and efficiency enhancement have resulted in a further increase in overall gross profit margin [1]

全年来看，2025年我国工程机械进出口贸易额累计为627.43亿美元，同比增长13.2%。其中进口金额 25.75亿美元，同比下降0.63%；出口金额601.69亿美元，同比增长13.8%。 按照以人民币计价的出口额计算，12月份出口额454.77亿元，同比增长25.5%。全年累计出口额4303.88 亿元，同比增长14.5%。 中国工程机械工业协会发布2025年12月工程机械产品进出口快报。数据显示，2025年12月我国工程机械 进出口贸易额为66.3亿美元，同比增长26%，其中：进口额2.12亿美元，同比下降1.79%；出口额64.17 亿美元，同比增长27.2%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The escalating trade tensions between the US and EU, particularly regarding tariffs on goods, are destabilizing global supply chains and creating opportunities for the Chinese construction machinery industry [1][9]. Group 1: Impact on European and American Markets - European manufacturers are facing direct impacts, with a projected 19% drop in sales for 2024, and the US being their largest export market, accounting for over 25% of their exports [4][11]. - The imposition of US tariffs could lead to a cost increase of 15% to 50% for European products, significantly reducing their competitiveness [4][11]. - Conversely, the EU's countermeasures will also raise sales and operational costs for American brands in Europe, indicating a mutual weakening of both markets [12]. Group 2: Opportunities for Chinese Construction Machinery - Chinese construction machinery is well-positioned with three key advantages: 1. Exceptional cost-performance ratio, particularly in the electrification sector, making it an attractive option for budget-conscious European customers [5][13]. 2. A robust compliance system that has been tested through multiple trade disputes, allowing Chinese firms to navigate regulatory challenges effectively [5][13]. 3. A deep localization strategy, with leading companies like XCMG and SANY establishing comprehensive value chains overseas, enhancing their responsiveness to local markets [5][13]. Group 3: Strategic Approaches - In Europe, the focus should be on targeting small to medium-sized rental companies and contractors most affected by the tariff conflict, while aligning with the EU's green infrastructure investment plans [6][14]. - In the US, opportunities may arise from market segments vacated by European brands due to rising costs, as well as from the potential for supply chain replacements, leveraging China's efficient component supply chains [6][14]. - Establishing a strong foothold in South America, particularly through Brazil's significant investment plans, is crucial for mitigating fluctuations in the US and European markets [6][14]. Group 4: Overall Market Dynamics - The current geopolitical tensions are not merely a chance for opportunistic gains but serve as a stress test for the global competitiveness and strategic resilience of the Chinese construction machinery sector [7][15]. - The market's vulnerabilities will favor well-prepared and capable entrants, as Chinese equipment with unmatched cost-performance and integrated service ecosystems can become the optimal solution for clients facing challenges [7][15].

Market Overview - In December 2025, the A-share market showed a "high-level fluctuation and structural switching" pattern, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.06% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 4.17%[7] - The average return of the stock portfolio in December was 6.20%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which rose by 2.28%[7] Stock Recommendations - **Hengrui Medicine (600276)**: Closing price at 59.57 CNY, focusing on innovative drugs with a projected EPS of 1.31 CNY for 2025[10][12] - **Luoyang Molybdenum (603993)**: Closing price at 20.00 CNY, benefiting from copper and gold business expansion, with an EPS forecast of 0.88 CNY[15][18] - **Huaxin Cement (600801)**: Closing price at 24.54 CNY, with a focus on overseas expansion and an EPS estimate of 1.42 CNY[19][22] - **Sanmei Co., Ltd. (603379)**: Closing price at 60.72 CNY, specializing in refrigerants, with an EPS forecast of 3.50 CNY[23][27] - **CATL (300750)**: Closing price at 367.26 CNY, with a valuation recovery theme and an EPS estimate of 15.00 CNY[28][31] - **Sungrow Power Supply (300274)**: Closing price at 171.04 CNY, benefiting from favorable conditions in new energy storage, with an EPS forecast of 7.12 CNY[32][35] - **Sany Heavy Industry (600031)**: Closing price at 21.13 CNY, focusing on engineering machinery with an EPS estimate of 0.99 CNY[36][39] - **Inovance Technology (300124)**: Closing price at 75.33 CNY, focusing on industrial control with an EPS forecast of 2.07 CNY[40][42] - **North Huachuang (002371)**: Closing price at 459.08 CNY, specializing in semiconductor equipment with an EPS estimate of 9.95 CNY[43][45] Risks and Considerations - The report indicates a medium to high risk level for the stock portfolio, emphasizing the need for cautious investment decisions based on the accuracy and completeness of the information provided[6][3] - Potential risks include macroeconomic fluctuations, raw material price volatility, and regulatory changes affecting industry dynamics[11][18][19]

Core Viewpoint - Jifeng Technology's stock price has experienced fluctuations, with a year-to-date increase of 46.93% but a recent decline in the last 20 and 60 days [2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of December 31, Jifeng Technology's stock price was 7.89 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 3.9 billion CNY [1]. - The stock has seen a net outflow of 3.58 million CNY in principal funds, with large orders accounting for 9.24% of purchases and 27.11% of sales [1]. - Over the past five trading days, the stock has increased by 1.81%, while it has decreased by 4.25% over the last 20 days and 7.29% over the last 60 days [2]. Group 2: Company Overview - Jifeng Technology, established on December 8, 1994, and listed on October 30, 2009, is located in Chengdu, Sichuan Province [2]. - The company specializes in the sales and services of agricultural machinery, cargo vehicles, and engineering machinery, with 90.33% of its revenue coming from agricultural machinery distribution and 9.67% from manufacturing [2]. - The company is categorized under the retail trade sector, specifically in professional chains, and is associated with concepts such as smart agriculture, rural e-commerce, and rural revitalization [2]. Group 3: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Jifeng Technology reported a revenue of 2.22 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.47% [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was -7.32 million CNY, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 69.62% [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 53.61 million CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with no dividends paid in the last three years [3]. Group 4: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, Jifeng Technology had 21,300 shareholders, an increase of 9.68% from the previous period, with an average of 23,206 circulating shares per shareholder, down by 8.83% [2]. - Notably, Yongying Low Carbon Environmental Smart Selection Mixed Fund has exited the list of the top ten circulating shareholders [3].