坚定出海方向，把握结构性机遇 - 医药行业 2026 年策略 20260108 摘要 2025 年创新药企凭借对外授权交易（BD）取得突破，全球前十大创新 交易中八项来自中国企业，提升市场信心，但 BD 首付款仅为部分价值 兑现，临床数据验证仍是关键。 中国创新药发展加速，从 me-too/fast follow 向 best-in-class/first- in-class 升级，出海成关键驱动力。ADC、双抗等技术积累领域已突破， 小核酸、基因治疗等新兴领域展现潜力。 医疗器械领域各细分市场表现分化：低值耗材（如丁腈手套）已具产业 话语权；IVD 疫情期间出口良好；高端医疗设备和高值耗材出海初期， 高值耗材被认为更具突破性。 医疗器械出海成绩显著，心血管支架、人工关节、心脏起搏器等增速可 观，本土企业在关节和内镜检查耗材方面实现出口突破，进入发达国家 市场，定价和利润回报可期。 高值耗材与药品差异在于其独立知识产权和创新性，可进行 license out。通过合作或自建渠道建立发达国家销售网络，有望抵消国内集采 影响，推动医疗器械板块增速回升。 Q&A 2025 年医药行业的整体表现如何？创新药在其中扮演 ...

Market Overview - In December 2025, the A-share market showed a "high-level fluctuation and structural switching" pattern, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.06% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 4.17%[7] - The average return of the stock portfolio in December was 6.20%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which rose by 2.28%[7] Stock Recommendations - **Hengrui Medicine (600276)**: Closing price at 59.57 CNY, focusing on innovative drugs with a projected EPS of 1.31 CNY for 2025[10][12] - **Luoyang Molybdenum (603993)**: Closing price at 20.00 CNY, benefiting from copper and gold business expansion, with an EPS forecast of 0.88 CNY[15][18] - **Huaxin Cement (600801)**: Closing price at 24.54 CNY, with a focus on overseas expansion and an EPS estimate of 1.42 CNY[19][22] - **Sanmei Co., Ltd. (603379)**: Closing price at 60.72 CNY, specializing in refrigerants, with an EPS forecast of 3.50 CNY[23][27] - **CATL (300750)**: Closing price at 367.26 CNY, with a valuation recovery theme and an EPS estimate of 15.00 CNY[28][31] - **Sungrow Power Supply (300274)**: Closing price at 171.04 CNY, benefiting from favorable conditions in new energy storage, with an EPS forecast of 7.12 CNY[32][35] - **Sany Heavy Industry (600031)**: Closing price at 21.13 CNY, focusing on engineering machinery with an EPS estimate of 0.99 CNY[36][39] - **Inovance Technology (300124)**: Closing price at 75.33 CNY, focusing on industrial control with an EPS forecast of 2.07 CNY[40][42] - **North Huachuang (002371)**: Closing price at 459.08 CNY, specializing in semiconductor equipment with an EPS estimate of 9.95 CNY[43][45] Risks and Considerations - The report indicates a medium to high risk level for the stock portfolio, emphasizing the need for cautious investment decisions based on the accuracy and completeness of the information provided[6][3] - Potential risks include macroeconomic fluctuations, raw material price volatility, and regulatory changes affecting industry dynamics[11][18][19]

国家药监局表示，从2026年开始，国家药监局将出台更多举措，助推我国创新药高速发展。 国家药监局药品注册管理司副司长蓝恭涛说，下一步将审评资源更多地向临床急需的重点品种倾斜，特 别是对新机制、新靶点的创新药，加大支持力度，通过突破性治疗药物、附条件批准、优先审评审批、 特别审批四条通道，加快临床急需药品上市，进一步完善药品试验数据保护制度、药品市场独占期制 度，系统强化对创新的保护。 （文章来源：央视新闻） 记者今天（1月3日）从国家药监局获悉，2025年我国已批准上市的创新药达76个，大幅超过2024年全年 48个，创历史新高。此外，2025年我国创新药对外授权交易总金额超过1300亿美元，授权交易数量超过 150笔，同样创历史新高。 据了解，2025年国家药监局批准上市的76个创新药，包括47个化学药品、23个生物制品和6个中药。47 个化学药品中，38个为国产创新药，9个为进口创新药，国产创新药占比达80.85%；23个生物制品中， 21个为国产创新药，2个为进口创新药，国产创新药占比达91.30%。 国家药监局相关负责人介绍，具有全新治疗机制的首创新药（First-In-Class）研发最为困难。20 ...

RE FOTI 202 2025年，生物医药正迎来历史性跨越，无论是国内获 批上市的创新药数量再创新高，还是中国创新药对外授权 总金额突破1000亿美元,其背后离不开政策制定者的顶层 设计、产业从业者的深耕细作,以及普通大众的坚定信 心。这份比金子更珍贵的精神财富,共同铸就了改写国人 健康答案的关键瞬间。 每经记者 | 林姿辰 陈星 定调 政府工作报告再提"创新药" 品 阿尔茨海默病新药开出中国 首方 直销 三生制药与辉瑞授权交易额高 达60.5亿美元 中国侵入式脑机接口进入临床 试验阶段 甜气 创新药龙头百济神州首次实现 扭亏为盈 创新药临床申请审批开"2倍速" ←←弹幕：定调了！这是给创新药打了信心"强心剂"。 2025年的中国医药行业步履铿锵、亮点纷呈，而作为行业发展的核心引擎，生物医药正迎来属于自己的历史性跨越。截至12月7日，今年国内获批上市的 创新药数量达到69个，较去年全年的48个实现大幅跃升，创新研发成果呈现井喷之势。 在创新药市场，今年另一大核心关键词非BD（商务拓展）莫属。 医药魔方发布的《2025Q1—Q3医药交易趋势分析》显示，2025年前三季度，中国医药领域对外授权交易总金额已达92 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a mixed performance after stabilizing, with a focus on dividend stocks showing significant gains while technology indices are retreating, indicating a return to defensive strategies as year-end approaches [1] Market Outlook - Concerns over a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan are leading to cautious market sentiment, with expectations of reduced trading activity as year-end approaches. However, the market has the potential for upward movement due to improved supply-demand conditions in the manufacturing sector by mid-2026, which could boost the earnings growth of A-share companies [2] - Key focus areas for December include the impact of the 14th Five-Year Plan on industries, event-driven dynamics in the technology sector, and price recovery driven by anti-involution trends, suggesting multiple sectors may act as catalysts for a sustained upward trend in the market [2] Hot Sectors - In December, sectors benefiting from dividends and price increases are expected to outperform, with short-term attention on banking, public utilities, coal, and non-ferrous metals. Consumer sectors may also gain traction due to event-driven factors [3] - Technology remains a primary focus for 2026, with particular attention on AI, lithium batteries, military industry, and robotics. The trend of AI hardware is solidifying, with increasing token usage indicating a peak in AI applications by 2026 [3] - The domestic production of robots is anticipated to grow, expanding from humanoid robots to quadrupedal and functional robots, creating opportunities in related sectors such as sensors and controllers [3] - The trend towards semiconductor localization continues, with a focus on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [3] - The military sector is expected to see a recovery in orders by 2026, with signs of bottoming out in the performance of various military sub-sectors [3] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is entering a recovery phase after nearly four years of adjustment, with positive net profit growth expected to continue into 2026 [3]

Group 1: Military Industry ETF (512710.SH) - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality advancement of national defense and military modernization, with a projected defense budget of 1.81 trillion yuan for 2025, a 7.2% increase year-on-year, marking a historical high [3][4] - The defense budget as a percentage of GDP remains below 1.3%, significantly lower than the US (3.5%) and Russia (6.3%), indicating potential for future increases in defense spending [3] - The ETF tracks the China Securities Military Leading Index, focusing on leading companies in aerospace equipment, military electronics, missiles, and drones, which are expected to benefit from a new round of military procurement cycles [4] Group 2: Healthcare Industry ETF (159892.SZ) - Domestic policies are increasingly supportive of innovative drug development, including a multi-tiered payment system and improved commercialization mechanisms, facilitating the transition from generic to innovative drugs [6][7] - As of January 2025, China has 7,041 drug pipelines under research, accounting for 29.5% of the global total, with a year-on-year growth of 15.1%, outpacing the global average [7] - The ETF tracks the Hang Seng Biotechnology Index, focusing on 30 biotech companies listed in Hong Kong, which are well-positioned to capture opportunities in the rapid development and globalization of Chinese innovative drugs [7] Group 3: Automotive Industry ETF (520600.SH) - Recent policies such as vehicle purchase tax exemptions and subsidies for electric vehicles have effectively boosted domestic demand for new energy vehicles, with cumulative domestic sales reaching 10.929 million units by October 2025, a 25.7% increase year-on-year [11] - Exports of new energy vehicles have also surged, with 2.014 million units exported by October 2025, reflecting a 90.4% year-on-year growth [11] - The Ministry of Commerce has introduced measures to regulate the export of second-hand cars, aiming to promote healthy and orderly development of the automotive industry [11] Group 4: Gaming Industry ETF (159869.SZ) - In November 2025, a record number of 178 domestic online games and 6 imported games were approved, with a total of 1,624 game licenses issued from January to November, indicating a stable foundation for industry growth [13] - Chinese self-developed games generated actual sales revenue of $9.501 billion in overseas markets in the first half of 2025, reflecting an 11.07% year-on-year increase, showcasing strong international competitiveness [13] - The application of AI technology in game development is expected to lower costs and enhance efficiency, potentially leading to innovative gameplay [13]

报告仅供4创证券有限责任公司的客户使用，本公司不会因接收人权到本报告而阅其为客户。华创证券的这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，提告中的内容和意见仅供参考，并不构成本公风对所述证券买 卖的出价或海价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免费声明。 部分 行情回顾 01 证券研究报告 | 医药生物 | 2025年12月12日 www.hczq.com 华创医药投资观点&研究专题周周谈 · 第154期 2025Q3实体药店市场分析 本周专题联系人: 高初营 | 华创医药团队: | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 首席分析师 郑辰 | 执业编号: S0360520110002 邮箱: zhengchen@hcyjs.com | | | 联席首席分析师 刘浩 | 执业编号: S0360520120002 | 邮箱:liuhao@hcyjs.com | | 医疗器械组组长 李婵娟 | 执业编号: S0360520110004 | 邮箱:lichanjuan@hcyjs.com | | 中药和流通组组长 高初营 | | 执业编号: S ...

NO.2国金证券：看好券商板块估值修复 ｜2025年12月9日星期二｜ 12月9日，国金证券研报表示，在监管的引导下，未来证券公司的经营将更具备韧性，优质券商有望进 一步打开杠杆上限、提高ROE水平。当前板块PB估值仅1.36倍，年初至12月5日跑输上证指数15pct，根 据历史利润增速及板块涨跌幅、ROE水平及对应PB倍数来看，板块股价、估值表现仍显著落后于业绩 表现，看好板块估值修复。 NO.1中金：当前A股市场估值合理且上行的底层逻辑并未发生动摇 NO.3中信建投：创新药国谈成功率创新高商保创新药目录提供增量 12月9日，中金研报指出，2024年9月以来A股震荡上行已超一年，防范市场波动是未来需要考虑的问 题。中金尝试结合A股历史经验教训复盘及当前新形势，构建市场"顶部"判别的方法论，与前期关 于"底部"判别研究共同形成"稳市"监测框架。从其构造的"顶部"信号打分体系来看，当前市场相对健 康，估值合理且上行的底层逻辑并未发生动摇。 12月9日，中信建投（601066）指出，2025年12月7日，国家医保局发布《国家基本医疗保险、生育保险 和工伤保险药品目录(2025年)》及首个《商业健康保险创新药品目录 ...

谈判成功率创7年新高，药物保障能力不断提升 本次目录调整共有127个目录外药品参与谈判和竞价，其中114个药品谈判或竞价成功，总体成功率达 88%。2019年至2024年历次医保谈判成功率分别为65%、73%、80%、82%、85%和76%，本次医保谈判 成功率88%，创7年新高。 在最终114个成功纳入的品种里，有50种是1类创新药，充分体现了对创新的支持。有29种临床已被替代 或长期未生产供应的药品被调出，维持目录的健康发展。本轮调整后，国家医保目录中药品总数达到 3253种，其中西药1857种，中成药1396种。新版目录自2026年1月1日起正式执行。 2025年12月7日，国家医保局发布《国家基本医疗保险、生育保险和工伤保险药品目录(2025年)》及首 个《商业健康保险创新药品目录》 2025年医保目录更新，114种药品新增纳入目录，包括慢性病、肿瘤、抗感染、罕见病、新冠感染治疗 用药等，有其中50种是1类创新药。经调整后目录内药品总数达到3253种，其中西药1857种、中成药 1396种。本次基本目录，共有127个目录外产品参与谈判竞价，最终114个成功纳入，成功率为88%，谈 判成功率创近7年新高 ...

2025创新药高质量发展大会在广州举行 创新药发展迎新机遇 中新网广州12月7日电 (记者 蔡敏婕)2025创新药高质量发展大会7日在广州举行。 发展创新药关系医药产业发展，关系人民健康福祉。国家医保局党组书记、局长章轲在会上表示，回望 过去的10年，在社会各界的共同努力下，中国医药创新从远观、紧跟到齐头并进，并在部分领域实现了 反超、领跑，展现了强劲的活力。1月至10月，中国创新药的海外授权超过了100笔，金额突破了1000亿 美元。产业的发展也带来临床用药水平、医疗保障效能和群众健康产出的明显提升。 医保部门对通过"港澳药械通"引入的临床急需创新药，开辟赋码、采购绿色通道，支持指定医疗机构加 快临床转化。目前已有48家指定医疗机构引入超过166种港澳药械通药品。既为内地患者提供了国际先 进治疗选择，也形成了国际创新药械内地使用的"广东窗口"。 肖学指出，在保障危重患者需求的同时，广东为创新药应用提供了包容审慎的支付环境。构建创新药多 层次保障格局，积极推广重特大疾病补充医疗保险，实现城市定制型商保"全覆盖"，2024年全省共投保 1,791万人，赔付金额为9.76亿元，减轻了患者用药负担。 各方对创新药发 ...