白酒行业遭遇逆周期，汾酒为何"特立独行"？ 近期飞天茅台市场销售价格跌破1499元官方指导价、茅台价格跌回十年前、"五粮液十年来首次降价"成了白酒行业的热门话题。 12月6日，继茅台价格波动后，五粮液调价的消息在行业内迅速发酵，自2026年起，第八代普五(52度、500ml)经销商开票价将由1019元下降至900元左 右，降幅接近12%。 据第一财经12月2日报道，山西汾酒集团党委书记、董事长袁清茂表示，白酒消费正在从传统的以政务和商务消费为支柱的增长模式，转向"悦人"与"悦 己"并存的新格局，后者也成为行业必须面对的新课题与新增长曲线。相较于行业中一些白酒巨头还在坚持走高端路线，袁清茂可以说给白酒行业"上了一 课"。 有业内人士指出，高端白酒的货币属性或正在消失，白酒行业整体低迷或成常态，各大酒企必须找到新的增长点才能应对业绩压力。 汾酒真的是茅台"老师傅"？ 如今世人只知道茅台是高端白酒的代表，却鲜有人知茅台源自汾酒。清代《汾州府志》明确记载"天下白酒出汾州。"汾酒与茅台的历史渊源，是中国白酒 发展史上一段"师承—演化—并立"的经典故事。二者虽分属清香与酱香两大香型，但茅台的酿造技艺最初正是源自汾酒，这一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The management of Shanxi Fenjiu emphasizes "rationality" as a key theme in response to the challenges faced by the liquor industry this year, highlighting the need for a balanced approach to consumption and pricing [1][4]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of the year, Shanxi Fenjiu achieved a revenue of 32.924 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.405 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.48% [1]. - For the third quarter alone, the company reported total revenue of 8.960 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.05%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 1.38% to 2.899 billion yuan [3]. Market Challenges - The liquor industry is currently facing significant challenges, with many companies experiencing pressure on performance. Among 20 A-share listed companies, only Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu have managed to achieve growth in both revenue and net profit [1]. - The chairman of Shanxi Fenjiu acknowledged the difficulties in the industry, noting that traditional consumption patterns driven by government and business scenarios have largely failed this year [3]. Strategic Focus - For the upcoming year, Shanxi Fenjiu plans to focus on four main areas: national expansion 2.0, youth-oriented strategies 1.0, internationalization 1.0, and precise consumer services [6]. - The company aims to optimize inventory structure, stabilize pricing systems, enhance consumer engagement, and promote the synergy of its three major brands [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Shanxi Fenjiu is focusing on optimizing its product structure and expanding its market presence, particularly in high-end liquor segments and international markets [2][3][4]. - In 2024, Shanxi Fenjiu achieved a revenue of approximately 36.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.79%, and a net profit of about 12.24 billion yuan, up 17.29%, ranking among the top three liquor stocks in A-shares [3]. - The company’s mid-to-high-end liquor products, represented by Qinghua Fenjiu, contributed over 70% of total revenue, with these products generating approximately 26.53 billion yuan in revenue, a growth of 14.35% year-on-year [3]. Group 2 - The company plans to implement a "four-wheel drive" strategy focusing on four core product series: Qinghua 30 and its combinations, Qinghua 20, Glass Fenjiu, and Lao Bai Fen, to drive future growth [4]. - The liquor industry is experiencing structural differentiation, with a significant trend towards high-end and concentrated products, which Shanxi Fenjiu aims to leverage through national expansion [4]. - The company is actively preparing for the upcoming Dragon Boat Festival by ensuring sufficient product reserves and promoting through the "Fen Enjoy Benefits" campaign [4]. Group 3 - The trend of youth engagement and internationalization is becoming increasingly important in the liquor industry, with younger consumers emerging as a new force in the market [5][6]. - Shanxi Fenjiu is focusing on a "young Fenjiu" initiative starting in 2025, which includes seven aspects of youthfulness aimed at enhancing brand appeal among younger demographics [6]. - The international market is seen as a crucial breakthrough direction for the liquor industry, with Shanxi Fenjiu successfully filling market gaps in 11 countries and organizing over 700 promotional events globally [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SH) [1][10] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 36 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, and a net profit of 12.2 billion yuan, up 17.3% year-on-year [5][10] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3.60 yuan per share for 2024, totaling 7.4 billion yuan, which accounts for 60.4% of the net profit [5][10] - The product structure continues to upgrade, with mid-to-high-end liquor revenue reaching 26.5 billion yuan in 2024, a 14% increase year-on-year [9][10] Financial Performance Summary - **2024 Financials**: - Revenue: 36 billion yuan, up 12.8% YoY - Net Profit: 12.2 billion yuan, up 17.3% YoY - Gross Margin: 76.2% [5][8][12] - **2025 Projections**: - Expected Revenue: 39.6 billion yuan, up 10.1% YoY - Expected Net Profit: 13.3 billion yuan, up 9.0% YoY [8][12] - **Key Ratios**: - ROE for 2024 is projected at 35.2% - P/E ratio for 2024 is projected at 20.2 [12][14] Market and Product Insights - The company reported stable growth in both domestic and international markets, with domestic revenue reaching 13.5 billion yuan and international revenue at 22.4 billion yuan in 2024 [9][10] - The sales channels showed resilience, with direct sales and e-commerce growing by 20% and 26% respectively in 2024 [9][10] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of 7.4 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 9.3 percentage point increase in the payout ratio compared to the previous year [5][10]