食品饮料三季报总结及展望 20251102 摘要 整体来看，食品饮料板块在三季度由正转负。二季度同比增长 0.1%，而三季 度则下滑了 4.8%。非白酒板块依然有 0.2%的增长，但白酒板块的下滑幅度进 一步扩大，二季度下滑 55.1%，三季度下滑 18.5%。剔除茅台影响后，其他 白酒的消耗幅度更大，利润也随之下降。二季度利润下滑 7.5%，三季度则下 降 22.2%。非白酒板块的保健品、乳制品、软饮料和啤酒等增幅较大。 白酒行业在禁酒令后的表现如何？ 三季度是禁酒令后的第一个旺季，实际需求相对较弱，加上渠道库存杠杆进一 步调整，使得报表真实反映市场需求和渠道进货情况。整体来看，三季度收入 不下滑的上市公司仅有茅台、汾酒和酒鬼酒，其中茅台保持平稳并且收入占比 高。前三季度收入增长的只有茅台和汾酒两家，这反映出今年（2025 年）白 保健品板块汤臣倍健和仙乐健康三季度超预期，渠道和产品优化改善。 速冻食品板块企稳，竞争格局趋稳，龙头公司费用投入收缩，利润有所 修复。 零食量贩渠道保持快速增长，商超新渠道贡献增量。肉制品行业双汇发 展和万洲国际表现稳健，股息率较高。啤酒板块结构升级，成本下行， 盈利能力改善。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the liquor sector, indicating a bottoming out phase with potential for recovery in the future [2]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing a significant decline in sales, with an expected drop of over 20% in overall sales volume. However, there are signs of month-on-month improvement, and the decline is narrowing [5][9]. - Major liquor companies like Moutai and Wuliangye are showing strong recovery in payment collection, with over 80% collection rates, while regional brands are performing adequately [5][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-quality liquor brands that are likely to recover faster, such as Moutai and Fenjiu, while also highlighting the need to monitor companies undergoing significant changes [6][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Liquor Sector: Q3 Accelerated Decline and Bottoming Out - The liquor sector is facing a 20%+ decline in sales due to external demand shocks, with a gradual improvement expected in the coming months [5][9]. - High-end liquor brands are expected to show resilience, with Moutai projected to achieve a 3% revenue growth in Q3, while Wuliangye is expected to see a 20% revenue decline [10][11]. - The report indicates that companies are adjusting their strategies to reduce channel pressure and improve operational efficiency [9][10]. 2. Consumer Goods Sector: Overall Demand Weakness, Structural Resilience - The consumer goods sector is experiencing overall weak demand, but segments like snacks and beverages are showing higher resilience [17][24]. - The report notes that while the demand for dairy and beer remains stable, the restaurant supply chain is still under pressure [17][24]. - Raw material prices are generally declining, which may provide some cost relief to companies in the sector [24][25]. 3. Investment Recommendations: Focus on Liquor Bottoming Catalysts and Selective Consumer Goods Trends - The report suggests focusing on liquor companies that are at the bottom of their cycles, with Moutai and Fenjiu being primary recommendations [6][9]. - For consumer goods, the report highlights the potential of snack and beverage companies, recommending brands that are well-positioned to benefit from current trends [6][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the liquor industry, indicating a positive outlook for the mid-term [1]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing continued pressure, with a focus on quality over speed in growth. The recovery in demand is showing signs of being uneven, leading companies to prioritize prudent growth strategies [12][18]. - The high-end liquor segment is seeing stable pricing control, while the mid-range segment is under pressure, indicating a divergence in performance across different price tiers [1][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Demand Recovery and Quality Focus - The liquor sector's revenue for FY 2024 grew by 8.2% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 7.2%. For Q1 2025, revenue growth slowed to 2.3% and net profit to 2.6% [12][18]. - Consumer confidence remains weak, particularly in the mid to low-end segments, while high-end banquet consumption is showing signs of recovery from a low base [12][18]. 2. Revenue Trends - Revenue growth is gradually bottoming out, with increasing differentiation among companies. The high-end segment remains relatively stable, while the mid-range segment faces significant challenges [18][27]. - The report highlights that many liquor companies are tightening control over distributors and focusing on core products to drive sales [18][27]. 3. Profitability Analysis - The gross profit margin for the liquor sector in FY 2024 was 82.93%, a slight increase from the previous year. However, many companies are facing pressure on their gross margins due to pricing and product mix challenges [2][3]. - Sales and management expense ratios have seen slight increases, indicating a cautious approach to spending amid a challenging market environment [2][3]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that leading liquor companies are expected to show resilient growth, supported by effective channel management and digital tracking strategies. Companies like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu are recommended for their solid performance and valuation safety margins [3][12].