证 券 研 究 报 告 稳健医疗（300888）2025 年三季报点评 强推（维持） 双轮驱动高质增长，医疗消费齐头并进 目标价：51.4 元 事项： ❖ 公司公布 2025 年三季报。前三季度，公司实现营收/归母净利润/扣非归母净利 润 79.0/7.3/6.8 亿元，YoY+30.1%/+32.4%/+43.9%；25Q3，公司实现营收/归母 净利润/扣非归母净利润 26.0/2.4/2.2 亿元，YoY+27.7%/+42.1%/+50.8%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 8,978 | 11,333 | 13,096 | 14,753 | | 同比增速(%) | 9.7% | 26.2% | 15.6% | 12.7% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 695 | 997 | 1,201 | 1,412 | | 同比增速(%) | 19.8% | 43.4% | 20.4% | 17.6% | | 每股 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for稳健医疗 Company Overview - **Company**: 稳健医疗 (Steady Medical) - **Industry**: Medical Supplies and Health Consumer Products Key Points and Arguments 1. **Financial Performance**: In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue increase of 30% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 32%, indicating a recovery growth phase post-pandemic driven by the synergy between the medical and consumer segments [2][3][31] 2. **Medical Segment Growth**: The high-end dressing business saw a revenue growth of 30% in 2024 with a gross margin exceeding 50%. The surgical consumables business, after consolidating GRI, experienced a growth rate close to 200%, becoming a key driver for the medical segment [2][3][31] 3. **Consumer Products Segment**: The health consumer products segment focuses on four core categories: wet and dry cotton towels, sanitary napkins, adult clothing, and children's clothing. The sanitary napkin business grew over 60%, making it the fastest-growing category in the consumer segment [2][3][31] 4. **Brand Strategy**: The company achieved significant success in the cotton towel and sanitary napkin markets through a "hit product" strategy, with products like ultra-soft cotton towels and medical-grade sanitary napkins seeing growth rates exceeding 300% and doubling, respectively [2][20][21] 5. **E-commerce Expansion**: The company is actively expanding its online channels, particularly in live-streaming e-commerce, which, although currently below the industry average, has significant growth potential and is expected to become a key driver for future performance [2][3][31] 6. **Mergers and Acquisitions**: Through acquisitions like GRI, the company has supplemented key categories and driven rapid growth in related businesses, enhancing its positioning as a one-stop procurement solution for consumables [2][15][31] 7. **Future Growth Projections**: The medical business is expected to maintain a growth rate of around 13% over the next two years, while the consumer products segment is projected to grow between 13% and 18%, indicating high-quality growth potential [3][31] 8. **Market Position**: In the low-value medical consumables industry, the company holds a competitive edge with a gross margin of 36.52%, higher than competitors like 澳美 and 正德 [10][31] 9. **International Market Strategy**: The company is enhancing its own brand development in international markets and expanding through cross-border e-commerce, focusing on both B2B and B2C channels [13][31] 10. **Product Structure**: The company’s main product categories include traditional wound care products, high-end dressings, surgical room consumables, disease control protection products, and health care products, with significant revenue contributions from each [14][31] Additional Important Insights 1. **Management and Ownership**: The actual controller, Mr. Li Jianxian, and his family hold nearly 70% of the shares, with a management team comprising experienced executives from both the medical and fast-moving consumer goods sectors [8][31] 2. **Market Dynamics**: The sanitary napkin market is experiencing significant changes, with traditional leading brands losing market share, providing opportunities for emerging brands like 奈斯公主 [28][29][30] 3. **Consumer Trends**: The company is focusing on enhancing brand image and values through various marketing strategies, including social media and live-streaming, to attract younger consumers [21][30] 4. **Challenges in Baby Clothing Segment**: The growth of the children's clothing segment is expected to be limited due to declining birth rates, with only single-digit growth projected for 2025 [19][23][31] This comprehensive summary captures the essential aspects of the conference call, highlighting the company's performance, strategic initiatives, and market positioning within the medical and consumer products sectors.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company has achieved continuous high-quality growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with a revenue of 7.897 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.10%. The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 732 million yuan, up 32.36% year-on-year [4][6] - The medical segment reported a revenue of 3.83 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year growth of 44.4%, driven by rapid development in core categories such as surgical consumables and high-end dressings [4][6] - The consumer segment generated a revenue of 4.01 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, led by strong sales of specific products like sanitary napkins [4][6] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.601 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.71%, and a net profit of 240 million yuan, up 42.11% year-on-year [4] - The company’s stock performance over the past year shows a 30.4% increase, outperforming the CSI 300 index [3] Medical Segment - The medical segment's revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 was 3.83 billion yuan, with significant growth in surgical consumables (185.3% increase), high-end dressings (26.2% increase), and health personal care products (24.6% increase) [4] - International sales channels contributed 2.18 billion yuan, marking an 81.7% year-on-year growth, with a notable increase in Southeast Asia and the Middle East [4] Consumer Segment - The consumer segment's revenue reached 4.01 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, with the fastest growth seen in sanitary napkins, which generated 760 million yuan, a 63.9% increase [4] - E-commerce channels showed robust growth, achieving 2.46 billion yuan in revenue, a 23.5% increase, with significant contributions from interest e-commerce platforms [4] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 11.511 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 995 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 28% and 43% respectively [6][7] - The estimated P/E ratios for the next few years are 23.93 for 2025, 20.35 for 2026, and 17.49 for 2027, indicating a favorable valuation trend [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Steady Medical has experienced fluctuations, with a current price of 40.09 CNY per share and a market capitalization of 23.346 billion CNY, reflecting a year-to-date decline of 3.12% [1] Company Overview - Steady Medical, established on August 24, 2000, and listed on September 17, 2020, is located in Longhua District, Shenzhen, Guangdong Province. The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of cotton products [1] - The main revenue sources include consumer products such as wet and dry cotton towels (19.87%), medical consumables like surgical room products (18.15%), and traditional wound care products (13.88%) [1] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Steady Medical reported a revenue of 7.897 billion CNY, marking a year-on-year growth of 30.10%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 732 million CNY, reflecting a 32.36% increase compared to the previous year [2] - Since its A-share listing, the company has distributed a total of 2.875 billion CNY in dividends, with 1.729 billion CNY paid out in the last three years [3] Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased by 15.06% to 32,100, with an average of 18,048 shares held per shareholder, up by 186.92% [2] - The top shareholders include Huabao Zhongzheng Medical ETF, holding 6.5935 million shares, and Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 4.8997 million shares, with notable changes in their holdings compared to the previous period [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong performance in Q3 2025, with total revenue of 7.9 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 730 million yuan, up 32.4% year-on-year [7] - The consumer segment, particularly the sanitary napkin category and e-commerce channels, has driven growth, with revenue from consumer products reaching 4.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.1% [7] - The medical segment has also shown robust growth, with medical consumables revenue of 3.83 billion yuan, up 44.4% year-on-year [7] - The overall gross margin has remained stable, with a slight increase to approximately 48.3% in Q1-Q3 2025, benefiting from a higher proportion of high-margin products in the consumer segment [7] - The company maintains a positive outlook for net profit growth, forecasting net profits of 1.045 billion yuan, 1.237 billion yuan, and 1.494 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 8.185 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 27.89%, followed by a recovery in 2024 with an expected increase of 9.69% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is estimated at 580.4 million yuan, down 64.84% year-on-year, with a forecasted recovery to 695.38 million yuan in 2024, representing a 19.81% increase [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is projected at 1.00 yuan, with a forecasted increase to 1.19 yuan in 2024 [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 41.44 in 2023 to 34.59 in 2024, indicating improved valuation as earnings recover [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Steady Medical has shown a positive trend recently, with a notable increase in trading volume and a significant rise in stock price over the past few weeks, indicating investor interest and confidence in the company's performance [1][2]. Company Overview - Steady Medical, established on August 24, 2000, and listed on September 17, 2020, is located in Longhua District, Shenzhen, Guangdong Province. The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of cotton products [1]. - The main revenue sources for Steady Medical include consumer products such as wet and dry cotton towels (19.87%), medical consumables like surgical room products (18.15%), and traditional wound care products (13.88%) [1]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Steady Medical reported a revenue of 7.897 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.10%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 732 million yuan, marking a 32.36% increase compared to the previous year [2]. - Since its A-share listing, Steady Medical has distributed a total of 2.875 billion yuan in dividends, with 1.729 billion yuan paid out in the last three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Steady Medical reached 32,100, an increase of 15.06% from the previous period. The average number of circulating shares per person rose to 18,048, up by 186.92% [2]. - The top shareholders include Huabao Zhongzheng Medical ETF, holding 6.5935 million shares, and Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, with 4.8997 million shares, showing changes in their holdings compared to the previous period [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company reported strong growth in the third quarter of 2025, with total revenue reaching 7.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.1%, and net profit attributable to the parent company at 732 million yuan, up 32.4% year-on-year [7] - The consumer goods segment continued to show high growth, with revenue of 4.01 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a 19.1% increase year-on-year, and a significant recovery in growth rate in the third quarter compared to the second quarter [7] - The medical business also demonstrated strong performance, with revenue of 3.83 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a 44.4% increase year-on-year, driven by both organic growth and the acquisition of GRI [7] - The company's profitability remained stable, with a gross margin of 48.3% and a net profit margin of 9.3% in the first three quarters [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 10.779 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20.1% [6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 1.026 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 47.6% [6] - Earnings per share are projected to be 1.76 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 23 [6]

Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue reaching 7.897 billion and net profit attributable to shareholders at 732 million, reflecting year-on-year growth of 30.10% and 32.36% respectively [1] - The consumer segment, particularly the ToC brand "Cotton Era," has been a key driver of growth, achieving revenue of 4.01 billion with a year-on-year increase of 19.1% [1] - The medical segment has also shown strong performance, with revenue of 3.83 billion, marking a substantial year-on-year growth of 44.4% [2] Consumer Segment Performance - The "Cotton Era" brand has focused on core categories and strategic products, leading to differentiated growth advantages [1] - Notable products include the "Princess Nais" sanitary napkins, which generated 760 million in sales, a remarkable increase of 63.9% [1] - Other core categories such as wet and dry cotton soft towels and adult apparel also maintained steady growth, with revenues of 1.17 billion and 750 million, reflecting year-on-year growth of 15.7% and 17.3% respectively [1] Channel Development - The company has established a synergistic online and offline sales strategy, with e-commerce channels generating 2.46 billion in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 23.5% [2] - Interest e-commerce platforms, particularly Douyin, have seen nearly 80% growth, becoming a new growth engine for online sales [2] - The supermarket channel has expanded rapidly, achieving 360 million in revenue, a significant increase of 53.4% [2] Medical Segment Performance - The medical segment has optimized its product structure, with core categories such as surgical consumables and high-end dressings showing rapid growth [3] - Surgical consumables achieved revenue of 1.15 billion, a staggering increase of 185.3% [3] - High-end dressings and health personal care products also contributed positively, with revenues of 720 million and a year-on-year growth of 26.2% and 24.6% respectively [3] Future Strategy - The company aims to continue its strategy of "product leadership, excellent operations, and global vision," focusing on core areas and expanding both domestic and international markets [3] - Ongoing product innovation, channel penetration, and brand upgrades are expected to enhance the company's core competitiveness in the health sector [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][16]. Core Insights - The report highlights strong growth in core products both domestically and internationally, with an emphasis on brand value enhancement [3][8]. - The company achieved a revenue of 79 billion yuan in the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.1%, and a net profit of 7.3 billion yuan, up 32.4% year-on-year [8]. - The medical segment saw significant growth, with revenue reaching 38.3 billion yuan, a 44.4% increase year-on-year, driven by high-value core products and rapid channel expansion [8]. Financial Data and Valuation - Projected revenue for 2023A is 8,185 million yuan, with a growth rate of -28%. By 2027E, revenue is expected to reach 15,212 million yuan, with a growth rate of 15% [4]. - Net profit is projected to be 580 million yuan in 2023A, with a growth rate of -65%. By 2027E, net profit is expected to reach 1,448 million yuan, with a growth rate of 20% [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.00 yuan in 2023A, increasing to 2.49 yuan by 2027E [4]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 38.6 in 2023A to 15.5 in 2027E [4]. Company Dynamics - The medical segment's revenue from surgical consumables, high-end dressings, and health personal care products showed significant increases, with surgical consumables revenue growing by 185.3% year-on-year [8]. - International sales revenue reached 21.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 81.7%, with strong performance in Southeast Asia and the Middle East [8]. - The consumer goods segment also performed well, with revenue of 40.1 billion yuan, a 19.1% increase year-on-year, driven by e-commerce and supermarket channels [8]. Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 48.3%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, with expectations for further improvement due to high-value products [8]. - The net profit margin for the first three quarters was 9.3%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.2 percentage points [8]. - The report indicates that the company is optimizing its expenses, with a reduction in sales expense ratio and a slight increase in management expense ratio due to acquisitions [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1]. Core Insights - The company achieved a high-quality growth in Q3 2025, with revenue reaching 7.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 730 million yuan, up 32.4% year-on-year [5][9]. - The medical and consumer sectors both contributed significantly to the revenue growth, with the medical segment growing by 44.4% and the consumer segment by 19.1% in the first three quarters of 2025 [6][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenues of 2.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 27.7%. The net profit for the same quarter was 240 million yuan, reflecting a 42.1% increase year-on-year [5][6]. - The company's gross margin improved to 48.3%, up 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the expense ratio decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 35.7% [8]. Revenue Breakdown - The medical business generated 3.83 billion yuan in revenue in the first three quarters, accounting for 48.5% of total revenue, with a notable growth in key categories such as surgical consumables and high-end dressings [6]. - The consumer business achieved 4.01 billion yuan in revenue, representing 50.8% of total revenue, with significant growth in products like sanitary napkins and adult products [7]. Profitability and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 1.019 billion yuan, 1.214 billion yuan, and 1.431 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.75 yuan, 2.08 yuan, and 2.46 yuan [9][11]. - The company is expected to trade at a P/E ratio of 22, 18, and 16 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [9][11].