证 券 研 究 报 告 稳健医疗（300888）2025 年三季报点评 强推（维持） 双轮驱动高质增长，医疗消费齐头并进 目标价：51.4 元 事项： ❖ 公司公布 2025 年三季报。前三季度，公司实现营收/归母净利润/扣非归母净利 润 79.0/7.3/6.8 亿元，YoY+30.1%/+32.4%/+43.9%；25Q3，公司实现营收/归母 净利润/扣非归母净利润 26.0/2.4/2.2 亿元，YoY+27.7%/+42.1%/+50.8%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 8,978 | 11,333 | 13,096 | 14,753 | | 同比增速(%) | 9.7% | 26.2% | 15.6% | 12.7% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 695 | 997 | 1,201 | 1,412 | | 同比增速(%) | 19.8% | 43.4% | 20.4% | 17.6% | | 每股 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company has achieved continuous high-quality growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with a revenue of 7.897 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.10%. The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 732 million yuan, up 32.36% year-on-year [4][6] - The medical segment reported a revenue of 3.83 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year growth of 44.4%, driven by rapid development in core categories such as surgical consumables and high-end dressings [4][6] - The consumer segment generated a revenue of 4.01 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, led by strong sales of specific products like sanitary napkins [4][6] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.601 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.71%, and a net profit of 240 million yuan, up 42.11% year-on-year [4] - The company’s stock performance over the past year shows a 30.4% increase, outperforming the CSI 300 index [3] Medical Segment - The medical segment's revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 was 3.83 billion yuan, with significant growth in surgical consumables (185.3% increase), high-end dressings (26.2% increase), and health personal care products (24.6% increase) [4] - International sales channels contributed 2.18 billion yuan, marking an 81.7% year-on-year growth, with a notable increase in Southeast Asia and the Middle East [4] Consumer Segment - The consumer segment's revenue reached 4.01 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, with the fastest growth seen in sanitary napkins, which generated 760 million yuan, a 63.9% increase [4] - E-commerce channels showed robust growth, achieving 2.46 billion yuan in revenue, a 23.5% increase, with significant contributions from interest e-commerce platforms [4] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 11.511 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 995 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 28% and 43% respectively [6][7] - The estimated P/E ratios for the next few years are 23.93 for 2025, 20.35 for 2026, and 17.49 for 2027, indicating a favorable valuation trend [6][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong performance in Q3 2025, with total revenue of 7.9 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 730 million yuan, up 32.4% year-on-year [7] - The consumer segment, particularly the sanitary napkin category and e-commerce channels, has driven growth, with revenue from consumer products reaching 4.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.1% [7] - The medical segment has also shown robust growth, with medical consumables revenue of 3.83 billion yuan, up 44.4% year-on-year [7] - The overall gross margin has remained stable, with a slight increase to approximately 48.3% in Q1-Q3 2025, benefiting from a higher proportion of high-margin products in the consumer segment [7] - The company maintains a positive outlook for net profit growth, forecasting net profits of 1.045 billion yuan, 1.237 billion yuan, and 1.494 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 8.185 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 27.89%, followed by a recovery in 2024 with an expected increase of 9.69% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is estimated at 580.4 million yuan, down 64.84% year-on-year, with a forecasted recovery to 695.38 million yuan in 2024, representing a 19.81% increase [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is projected at 1.00 yuan, with a forecasted increase to 1.19 yuan in 2024 [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 41.44 in 2023 to 34.59 in 2024, indicating improved valuation as earnings recover [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company reported strong growth in the third quarter of 2025, with total revenue reaching 7.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.1%, and net profit attributable to the parent company at 732 million yuan, up 32.4% year-on-year [7] - The consumer goods segment continued to show high growth, with revenue of 4.01 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a 19.1% increase year-on-year, and a significant recovery in growth rate in the third quarter compared to the second quarter [7] - The medical business also demonstrated strong performance, with revenue of 3.83 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a 44.4% increase year-on-year, driven by both organic growth and the acquisition of GRI [7] - The company's profitability remained stable, with a gross margin of 48.3% and a net profit margin of 9.3% in the first three quarters [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 10.779 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20.1% [6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 1.026 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 47.6% [6] - Earnings per share are projected to be 1.76 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 23 [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][19]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong performance in the third quarter, with revenue growth of 28% year-on-year and a 51% increase in net profit attributable to the parent company. For the third quarter of 2025, revenue is expected to reach 2.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.7%, and net profit is projected at 240 million yuan, up 42.1% year-on-year [1][3]. - The growth is driven by both external acquisitions and internal optimization, with a significant increase in surgical consumables revenue due to the acquisition of GRI, which saw a year-on-year growth of 185.3% to 1.15 billion yuan. The company is also focusing on high-value, high-margin products, which are becoming a key support for organic growth [2][19]. - The company maintains a strong cash flow, supporting a good dividend level, and is expected to achieve net profits of 1.01 billion, 1.17 billion, and 1.35 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 44.7%, 16.1%, and 15.5% respectively [3][19]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the third quarter, the company achieved a gross margin of 48.3%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin attributable to the parent company increased by 1.3 percentage points to 8.4% [1][2]. - The company’s inventory increased by 9.3% year-on-year to 2.14 billion yuan, with inventory turnover days decreasing by 11 days to 136 days [1]. Revenue Breakdown - For the first three quarters, total revenue reached 3.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.4%. The third quarter alone is expected to contribute 1.39 billion yuan, up 47.2% year-on-year [2]. - The overseas revenue significantly improved, with a year-on-year increase of 81.7% to 2.18 billion yuan, accounting for 57% of the medical segment [2]. Product Performance - High-end dressings generated revenue of 720 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.2%, while health personal care products reached 360 million yuan, up 24.6% [2]. - The company’s consumer products, particularly the cotton sanitary napkins, showed strong growth, with revenue increasing by 19.1% to 4.01 billion yuan in the first three quarters [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][19]. Core Views - The company has shown strong performance in the third quarter, with revenue and profit accelerating. Revenue increased by 28% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders (excluding non-recurring items) grew by 51% [1][3]. - The company is benefiting from both external acquisitions and internal optimization, with a significant increase in revenue from surgical consumables due to the acquisition of GRI, which saw a year-on-year growth of 185.3% [2][19]. - The company is expected to maintain strong growth, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 1.01 billion, 1.17 billion, and 1.35 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 44.7%, 16.1%, and 15.5% respectively [3][20]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the third quarter, the company reported a revenue of 2.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.7%, and a net profit of 240 million yuan, up 42.1% year-on-year. The gross margin was 48.3%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points [1][2]. - For the first three quarters, the company achieved a revenue of 3.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.4%, with the third quarter alone contributing 1.39 billion yuan, up 47.2% [2][19]. Product and Market Dynamics - The acquisition of GRI has significantly boosted the company's overseas performance, with international revenue increasing by 81.7% to 2.18 billion yuan, accounting for 57% of the medical segment [2][19]. - The company has also optimized its product structure, with high-value, high-margin products becoming a key driver of organic growth. High-end dressings generated 720 million yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 26.2% [2][19]. Future Outlook - The company maintains a target price of 48-52 yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 24-26x for 2026, indicating confidence in continued strong performance [3][19]. - The company is expected to sustain a good dividend level supported by robust cash flow, reflecting its strong growth potential [3][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][18]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.6 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 28%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 240 million yuan, up 42% year-on-year [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 7.9 billion yuan, reflecting a 30% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 730 million yuan, an increase of 32% year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 48.3%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin also improved by 0.2 percentage points to 9.3% [1]. - The medical segment saw a revenue of 3.8 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a significant increase of 44% year-on-year, with notable growth in key product categories [2]. - The consumer segment generated 4 billion yuan in revenue during the same period, marking a 19% year-on-year increase, driven by strong performance in e-commerce channels [3]. Financial Performance Summary - The company adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 11.2 billion, 13.2 billion, and 15 billion yuan respectively, with net profits projected at 1.04 billion, 1.23 billion, and 1.46 billion yuan [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.79, 2.12, and 2.50 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 22, 19, and 16 times [5]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing brand and channel development, with successful marketing campaigns and the opening of flagship stores to boost brand image and customer loyalty [4]. - The overseas market is becoming increasingly important, with foreign sales channels generating 2.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 81.7%, and accounting for 57% of the medical segment's revenue [2].

Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue reaching 7.897 billion and net profit attributable to shareholders at 732 million, reflecting year-on-year growth of 30.10% and 32.36% respectively [1] - The consumer segment, particularly the ToC brand "Cotton Era," has been a key driver of growth, achieving revenue of 4.01 billion with a year-on-year increase of 19.1% [1] - The medical segment has also shown strong performance, with revenue of 3.83 billion, marking a substantial year-on-year growth of 44.4% [2] Consumer Segment Performance - The "Cotton Era" brand has focused on core categories and strategic products, leading to differentiated growth advantages [1] - Notable products include the "Princess Nais" sanitary napkins, which generated 760 million in sales, a remarkable increase of 63.9% [1] - Other core categories such as wet and dry cotton soft towels and adult apparel also maintained steady growth, with revenues of 1.17 billion and 750 million, reflecting year-on-year growth of 15.7% and 17.3% respectively [1] Channel Development - The company has established a synergistic online and offline sales strategy, with e-commerce channels generating 2.46 billion in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 23.5% [2] - Interest e-commerce platforms, particularly Douyin, have seen nearly 80% growth, becoming a new growth engine for online sales [2] - The supermarket channel has expanded rapidly, achieving 360 million in revenue, a significant increase of 53.4% [2] Medical Segment Performance - The medical segment has optimized its product structure, with core categories such as surgical consumables and high-end dressings showing rapid growth [3] - Surgical consumables achieved revenue of 1.15 billion, a staggering increase of 185.3% [3] - High-end dressings and health personal care products also contributed positively, with revenues of 720 million and a year-on-year growth of 26.2% and 24.6% respectively [3] Future Strategy - The company aims to continue its strategy of "product leadership, excellent operations, and global vision," focusing on core areas and expanding both domestic and international markets [3] - Ongoing product innovation, channel penetration, and brand upgrades are expected to enhance the company's core competitiveness in the health sector [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1]. Core Insights - The company achieved a high-quality growth in Q3 2025, with revenue reaching 7.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 730 million yuan, up 32.4% year-on-year [5][9]. - The medical and consumer sectors both contributed significantly to the revenue growth, with the medical segment growing by 44.4% and the consumer segment by 19.1% in the first three quarters of 2025 [6][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenues of 2.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 27.7%. The net profit for the same quarter was 240 million yuan, reflecting a 42.1% increase year-on-year [5][6]. - The company's gross margin improved to 48.3%, up 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the expense ratio decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 35.7% [8]. Revenue Breakdown - The medical business generated 3.83 billion yuan in revenue in the first three quarters, accounting for 48.5% of total revenue, with a notable growth in key categories such as surgical consumables and high-end dressings [6]. - The consumer business achieved 4.01 billion yuan in revenue, representing 50.8% of total revenue, with significant growth in products like sanitary napkins and adult products [7]. Profitability and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 1.019 billion yuan, 1.214 billion yuan, and 1.431 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.75 yuan, 2.08 yuan, and 2.46 yuan [9][11]. - The company is expected to trade at a P/E ratio of 22, 18, and 16 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [9][11].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Steady Medical, reported strong financial performance for Q3 2025, with significant year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit, leading to a stock price increase of over 5% following the earnings announcement [1] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Steady Medical achieved revenue of 7.897 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.10%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 732 million yuan, up 32.36% [1] - The company's Q3 single-quarter revenue reached 2.6 billion yuan, reflecting a 28% year-on-year growth, while the net profit was 240 million yuan, marking a 42% increase [1] - The non-recurring net profit for Q3 was 220 million yuan, showing a substantial growth of 51% year-on-year [1] Business Segments - The consumer segment, primarily driven by the All-Cotton Era brand, generated 4.01 billion yuan in revenue for the first three quarters, a 19.1% increase, accounting for approximately 51% of total revenue [3] - The Princess Nais sanitary napkin line saw remarkable sales growth, reaching 760 million yuan, a 63.9% increase year-on-year, becoming a key growth driver [3] - The medical segment reported revenue of 3.83 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a significant increase of 44.4%, with surgical consumables showing a dramatic growth of 185.3% [4] Market Expansion and Strategy - The company has been focusing on optimizing its store network, closing underperforming locations while enhancing the profitability of core stores, leading to a 1.7 percentage point increase in gross margin for the All-Cotton Era brand [4] - Steady Medical's international expansion strategy is evident, with overseas sales contributing 2.18 billion yuan, an 81.7% increase, now accounting for 57% of the medical segment's revenue [4] - The company aims to increase the share of its own brands in international markets from 10% to 90% over the next five years, transitioning from OEM to brand export [5]