证 券 研 究 报 告 稳健医疗（300888）2025 年三季报点评 强推（维持） 双轮驱动高质增长，医疗消费齐头并进 目标价：51.4 元 事项： ❖ 公司公布 2025 年三季报。前三季度，公司实现营收/归母净利润/扣非归母净利 润 79.0/7.3/6.8 亿元，YoY+30.1%/+32.4%/+43.9%；25Q3，公司实现营收/归母 净利润/扣非归母净利润 26.0/2.4/2.2 亿元，YoY+27.7%/+42.1%/+50.8%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 8,978 | 11,333 | 13,096 | 14,753 | | 同比增速(%) | 9.7% | 26.2% | 15.6% | 12.7% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 695 | 997 | 1,201 | 1,412 | | 同比增速(%) | 19.8% | 43.4% | 20.4% | 17.6% | | 每股 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for稳健医疗 Company Overview - **Company**: 稳健医疗 (Steady Medical) - **Industry**: Medical Supplies and Health Consumer Products Key Points and Arguments 1. **Financial Performance**: In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue increase of 30% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 32%, indicating a recovery growth phase post-pandemic driven by the synergy between the medical and consumer segments [2][3][31] 2. **Medical Segment Growth**: The high-end dressing business saw a revenue growth of 30% in 2024 with a gross margin exceeding 50%. The surgical consumables business, after consolidating GRI, experienced a growth rate close to 200%, becoming a key driver for the medical segment [2][3][31] 3. **Consumer Products Segment**: The health consumer products segment focuses on four core categories: wet and dry cotton towels, sanitary napkins, adult clothing, and children's clothing. The sanitary napkin business grew over 60%, making it the fastest-growing category in the consumer segment [2][3][31] 4. **Brand Strategy**: The company achieved significant success in the cotton towel and sanitary napkin markets through a "hit product" strategy, with products like ultra-soft cotton towels and medical-grade sanitary napkins seeing growth rates exceeding 300% and doubling, respectively [2][20][21] 5. **E-commerce Expansion**: The company is actively expanding its online channels, particularly in live-streaming e-commerce, which, although currently below the industry average, has significant growth potential and is expected to become a key driver for future performance [2][3][31] 6. **Mergers and Acquisitions**: Through acquisitions like GRI, the company has supplemented key categories and driven rapid growth in related businesses, enhancing its positioning as a one-stop procurement solution for consumables [2][15][31] 7. **Future Growth Projections**: The medical business is expected to maintain a growth rate of around 13% over the next two years, while the consumer products segment is projected to grow between 13% and 18%, indicating high-quality growth potential [3][31] 8. **Market Position**: In the low-value medical consumables industry, the company holds a competitive edge with a gross margin of 36.52%, higher than competitors like 澳美 and 正德 [10][31] 9. **International Market Strategy**: The company is enhancing its own brand development in international markets and expanding through cross-border e-commerce, focusing on both B2B and B2C channels [13][31] 10. **Product Structure**: The company’s main product categories include traditional wound care products, high-end dressings, surgical room consumables, disease control protection products, and health care products, with significant revenue contributions from each [14][31] Additional Important Insights 1. **Management and Ownership**: The actual controller, Mr. Li Jianxian, and his family hold nearly 70% of the shares, with a management team comprising experienced executives from both the medical and fast-moving consumer goods sectors [8][31] 2. **Market Dynamics**: The sanitary napkin market is experiencing significant changes, with traditional leading brands losing market share, providing opportunities for emerging brands like 奈斯公主 [28][29][30] 3. **Consumer Trends**: The company is focusing on enhancing brand image and values through various marketing strategies, including social media and live-streaming, to attract younger consumers [21][30] 4. **Challenges in Baby Clothing Segment**: The growth of the children's clothing segment is expected to be limited due to declining birth rates, with only single-digit growth projected for 2025 [19][23][31] This comprehensive summary captures the essential aspects of the conference call, highlighting the company's performance, strategic initiatives, and market positioning within the medical and consumer products sectors.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][6]. Core Insights - The company has shown a strong performance in Q3 2025, with revenue, net profit attributable to the parent company, and net profit excluding non-recurring items reaching 2.6 billion, 240 million, and 220 million yuan respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 27.7%, 42.1%, and 50.8% [4][11]. - Short-term outlook indicates that consumption is expected to accelerate in Q4 due to increased investment in new products and marketing, with strong momentum in elastic single products and stable growth from the medical segment [2][11]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company's revenue grew by 19%, with Q3 showing a sequential acceleration. The growth in revenue is attributed to the fading of public sentiment issues and the impact of new endorsements. Revenue growth rates for sanitary napkins, cotton soft towels, and adult apparel were 64%, 16%, and 17% respectively [11]. - The medical segment reported a year-on-year revenue increase of 44% for Q1-Q3 2025, with core products such as surgical consumables, high-end dressings, and health personal care items growing by 185.3%, 26.2%, and 24.6% respectively [11]. Profitability - The gross margin improved by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year and 0.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 48.3%. This improvement is driven by a higher proportion of high-margin products and stable discount rates [11]. - The report notes a decrease in the sales expense ratio by 1.8 percentage points, attributed to scale effects, reduced public relations expenses, and refined internal operations [11]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to the parent company of 1.0 billion, 1.2 billion, and 1.4 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 24, 20, and 17 times [2][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company has achieved continuous high-quality growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with a revenue of 7.897 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.10%. The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 732 million yuan, up 32.36% year-on-year [4][6] - The medical segment reported a revenue of 3.83 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year growth of 44.4%, driven by rapid development in core categories such as surgical consumables and high-end dressings [4][6] - The consumer segment generated a revenue of 4.01 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, led by strong sales of specific products like sanitary napkins [4][6] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.601 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.71%, and a net profit of 240 million yuan, up 42.11% year-on-year [4] - The company’s stock performance over the past year shows a 30.4% increase, outperforming the CSI 300 index [3] Medical Segment - The medical segment's revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 was 3.83 billion yuan, with significant growth in surgical consumables (185.3% increase), high-end dressings (26.2% increase), and health personal care products (24.6% increase) [4] - International sales channels contributed 2.18 billion yuan, marking an 81.7% year-on-year growth, with a notable increase in Southeast Asia and the Middle East [4] Consumer Segment - The consumer segment's revenue reached 4.01 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, with the fastest growth seen in sanitary napkins, which generated 760 million yuan, a 63.9% increase [4] - E-commerce channels showed robust growth, achieving 2.46 billion yuan in revenue, a 23.5% increase, with significant contributions from interest e-commerce platforms [4] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 11.511 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 995 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 28% and 43% respectively [6][7] - The estimated P/E ratios for the next few years are 23.93 for 2025, 20.35 for 2026, and 17.49 for 2027, indicating a favorable valuation trend [6][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong performance in Q3 2025, with total revenue of 7.9 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 730 million yuan, up 32.4% year-on-year [7] - The consumer segment, particularly the sanitary napkin category and e-commerce channels, has driven growth, with revenue from consumer products reaching 4.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.1% [7] - The medical segment has also shown robust growth, with medical consumables revenue of 3.83 billion yuan, up 44.4% year-on-year [7] - The overall gross margin has remained stable, with a slight increase to approximately 48.3% in Q1-Q3 2025, benefiting from a higher proportion of high-margin products in the consumer segment [7] - The company maintains a positive outlook for net profit growth, forecasting net profits of 1.045 billion yuan, 1.237 billion yuan, and 1.494 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 8.185 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 27.89%, followed by a recovery in 2024 with an expected increase of 9.69% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is estimated at 580.4 million yuan, down 64.84% year-on-year, with a forecasted recovery to 695.38 million yuan in 2024, representing a 19.81% increase [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is projected at 1.00 yuan, with a forecasted increase to 1.19 yuan in 2024 [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 41.44 in 2023 to 34.59 in 2024, indicating improved valuation as earnings recover [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company reported strong growth in the third quarter of 2025, with total revenue reaching 7.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.1%, and net profit attributable to the parent company at 732 million yuan, up 32.4% year-on-year [7] - The consumer goods segment continued to show high growth, with revenue of 4.01 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a 19.1% increase year-on-year, and a significant recovery in growth rate in the third quarter compared to the second quarter [7] - The medical business also demonstrated strong performance, with revenue of 3.83 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a 44.4% increase year-on-year, driven by both organic growth and the acquisition of GRI [7] - The company's profitability remained stable, with a gross margin of 48.3% and a net profit margin of 9.3% in the first three quarters [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 10.779 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20.1% [6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 1.026 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 47.6% [6] - Earnings per share are projected to be 1.76 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 23 [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][19]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong performance in the third quarter, with revenue growth of 28% year-on-year and a 51% increase in net profit attributable to the parent company. For the third quarter of 2025, revenue is expected to reach 2.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.7%, and net profit is projected at 240 million yuan, up 42.1% year-on-year [1][3]. - The growth is driven by both external acquisitions and internal optimization, with a significant increase in surgical consumables revenue due to the acquisition of GRI, which saw a year-on-year growth of 185.3% to 1.15 billion yuan. The company is also focusing on high-value, high-margin products, which are becoming a key support for organic growth [2][19]. - The company maintains a strong cash flow, supporting a good dividend level, and is expected to achieve net profits of 1.01 billion, 1.17 billion, and 1.35 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 44.7%, 16.1%, and 15.5% respectively [3][19]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the third quarter, the company achieved a gross margin of 48.3%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin attributable to the parent company increased by 1.3 percentage points to 8.4% [1][2]. - The company’s inventory increased by 9.3% year-on-year to 2.14 billion yuan, with inventory turnover days decreasing by 11 days to 136 days [1]. Revenue Breakdown - For the first three quarters, total revenue reached 3.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.4%. The third quarter alone is expected to contribute 1.39 billion yuan, up 47.2% year-on-year [2]. - The overseas revenue significantly improved, with a year-on-year increase of 81.7% to 2.18 billion yuan, accounting for 57% of the medical segment [2]. Product Performance - High-end dressings generated revenue of 720 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.2%, while health personal care products reached 360 million yuan, up 24.6% [2]. - The company’s consumer products, particularly the cotton sanitary napkins, showed strong growth, with revenue increasing by 19.1% to 4.01 billion yuan in the first three quarters [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][19]. Core Views - The company has shown strong performance in the third quarter, with revenue and profit accelerating. Revenue increased by 28% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders (excluding non-recurring items) grew by 51% [1][3]. - The company is benefiting from both external acquisitions and internal optimization, with a significant increase in revenue from surgical consumables due to the acquisition of GRI, which saw a year-on-year growth of 185.3% [2][19]. - The company is expected to maintain strong growth, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 1.01 billion, 1.17 billion, and 1.35 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 44.7%, 16.1%, and 15.5% respectively [3][20]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the third quarter, the company reported a revenue of 2.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.7%, and a net profit of 240 million yuan, up 42.1% year-on-year. The gross margin was 48.3%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points [1][2]. - For the first three quarters, the company achieved a revenue of 3.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.4%, with the third quarter alone contributing 1.39 billion yuan, up 47.2% [2][19]. Product and Market Dynamics - The acquisition of GRI has significantly boosted the company's overseas performance, with international revenue increasing by 81.7% to 2.18 billion yuan, accounting for 57% of the medical segment [2][19]. - The company has also optimized its product structure, with high-value, high-margin products becoming a key driver of organic growth. High-end dressings generated 720 million yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 26.2% [2][19]. Future Outlook - The company maintains a target price of 48-52 yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 24-26x for 2026, indicating confidence in continued strong performance [3][19]. - The company is expected to sustain a good dividend level supported by robust cash flow, reflecting its strong growth potential [3][19].

Summary of the Conference Call for稳健医疗 Company Overview - The conference call discusses the performance and strategic direction of稳健医疗, particularly focusing on its consumer and medical business segments. Key Points Industry and Company Performance - **Consumer Products Growth**: The strategic categories such as sanitary napkins (up 55.9%), cotton soft towels (benefiting from endorsement by Sun Yingsha), and adult apparel (up 13%) showed outstanding performance, with online channels, especially e-commerce and Douyin, growing by 25% and 42% respectively, significantly boosting sales [2][3][5] - **Medical Business Growth**: The medical segment saw a revenue increase of 47.2%, with high-end dressings growing by 26%, surgical consumables by 15%, and health clients by 25% [4][16] Strategic Initiatives - **International Expansion**: The company’s overseas business grew significantly, with self-owned brands in Southeast Asia and the Middle East increasing by 24%, and cross-border e-commerce growing by 45%. High-end dressings performed particularly well on Amazon [2][7][22] - **Integration and Optimization**: Following the GIA acquisition, the company faced initial profit challenges due to tariffs but has since seen recovery in the supply chain, with plans for organizational restructuring and smart manufacturing upgrades [2][9][24] Product Development and Innovation - **New Product Launches**: The company plans to continue innovating in strategic categories, particularly in sanitary napkins and cotton soft towels, focusing on user needs and product upgrades [3][21] - **Market Adaptation**: The company is adapting its product offerings to different demographics and usage scenarios, ensuring a diverse range of products for various consumer needs [21] Channel Strategy - **E-commerce and Douyin**: The company is leveraging high-quality content to attract traffic on Douyin, with a focus on rapidly growing categories such as maternal and infant products [10][11] - **Retail Expansion**: The company plans to expand into key accounts like Sam's Club and is upgrading existing offline stores to enhance efficiency and sales performance [11][12] Financial Performance - **Profit Margin Improvement**: The third quarter saw a significant increase in profit margins due to supply chain recovery, cost control, and synergy across business segments, with gross margins rising by 2.5-3 percentage points [12][13] - **Future Outlook**: The company aims for a growth target of 13% to 18% in its equity incentive plan, with confidence in achieving its annual goals [20][24] Challenges and Risks - **Tariff Impact**: The GIA acquisition initially led to lower profits due to tariffs, but recovery is underway as supply chains stabilize [9][24] - **Market Conditions**: The company is navigating a challenging economic environment but remains focused on sustainable growth and long-term strategies [24] Additional Insights - **Consumer Trends**: The company is observing shifts in consumer behavior, particularly in the maternal and infant segments, and is preparing for potential increases in demand as birth rates fluctuate [19] - **Global Supply Chain Strategy**: The company is enhancing its global supply chain strategy to ensure efficient resource allocation and market responsiveness [8][22] This summary encapsulates the key insights and strategic directions discussed during the conference call, highlighting the company's performance, growth strategies, and market challenges.

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 7.897 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.10% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached 732 million yuan, up 32.36% year-on-year, with a basic earnings per share of 1.26 yuan [1] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.6 billion yuan, a 27.7% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 240 million yuan, up 42.1% year-on-year [1] Revenue Breakdown - The medical segment generated a total revenue of 3.83 billion yuan in the first three quarters, reflecting a growth of 44.4% year-on-year [1] - Core categories such as surgical consumables, high-end dressings, and health personal care products achieved revenues of 1.15 billion yuan, 720 million yuan, and 360 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 185.3%, 26.2%, and 24.6% [2] Market Expansion - The international sales channel reported a revenue of 2.18 billion yuan, marking an 81.7% increase year-on-year, with Southeast Asia and the Middle East showing significant growth [2] - The company's overseas sales accounted for 57% of the medical segment, indicating a strong international market presence [2] - The C-end business, including domestic pharmacies and e-commerce channels, grew by 25.8%, with cross-border sub-brands on Amazon seeing over 45% growth year-on-year [2] Strategic Focus - The company is optimizing its product structure, increasing the proportion of high-value, high-margin products, and enhancing its competitive advantage in high-end dressing development [1] - The company is expanding its market presence in both domestic and international surgical consumables while fostering growth in health personal care categories such as home wound care and medical aesthetics [1]