2026年02月25日 证券研究报告 | 悦己消费产业链研究之银发经济 关注运动产业和适老化产品企业机会 行业研究 · 行业快评 纺织服饰 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师：丁诗洁 证券分析师：刘佳琪 0755-81981391 010-88005446 dingshijie@guosen.com.cn liujiaqi@guosen.com.cn S0980520040004 S0980523070003 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 核心观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 事项：随着中国正步入深度老龄化社会，老龄化既带来劳动力供给趋紧等社会挑战，也蕴含巨大的银发族的消费市场新 机遇。相关企业积极布局有望迎来发展新机遇。 • 国信纺服观点：随着中国老龄化程度逐步加深，银发经济正成为消费市场的重要增长引擎。老龄化虽带来劳动力供给趋 紧等挑战，但同时也孕育着消费新机遇，如健康意识的提升推动大众运动产业蓬勃发展，老年人口对医疗护理、适老用 品的需求持续扩容等。具体来看： 1）运动服饰：日本老龄化社会运动鞋服消费坚挺，大众运动产业逆势增长。参照日本经验，经济低迷与老龄化背景 ...

2026年02月25日 证券研究报告 | 悦己消费产业链研究之银发经济 关注运动产业和适老化产品企业机会 行业研究 · 行业快评 纺织服饰 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师：丁诗洁 证券分析师：刘佳琪 0755-81981391 010-88005446 dingshijie@guosen.com.cn liujiaqi@guosen.com.cn S0980520040004 S0980523070003 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 核心观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 事项：随着中国正步入深度老龄化社会，老龄化既带来劳动力供给趋紧等社会挑战，也蕴含巨大的银发族的消费市场新 机遇。相关企业积极布局有望迎来发展新机遇。 • 国信纺服观点：随着中国老龄化程度逐步加深，银发经济正成为消费市场的重要增长引擎。老龄化虽带来劳动力供给趋 紧等挑战，但同时也孕育着消费新机遇，如健康意识的提升推动大众运动产业蓬勃发展，老年人口对医疗护理、适老用 品的需求持续扩容等。具体来看： 1）运动服饰：日本老龄化社会运动鞋服消费坚挺，大众运动产业逆势增长。参照日本经验，经济低迷与老龄化背景 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Steady Medical, has reported rapid growth in its high-end dressing segment within its medical business, indicating a strong potential for future expansion in both domestic and international markets [1] Group 1: Business Performance - The high-end dressing category is identified as a strategic product line with significant growth [1] - The gross profit margin for this segment is relatively high, contributing positively to the company's financial health [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The overseas market for high-end dressings has reached a mature stage, suggesting established demand and competitive positioning [1] - The domestic market is still in the promotion phase, indicating substantial room for growth and market penetration in the future [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 38.08 CNY per share, indicating a positive outlook for the stock's performance in the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to capitalize on structural upgrades in both the medical and consumer sectors through a dual business model of "medical + consumer" [1][6]. - The medical industry is transitioning from basic consumables to high-value products such as advanced dressings and customized surgical packs, driven by aging populations and rising medical standards [1]. - The consumer side is focusing on high-quality, safe, and environmentally friendly products, reflecting a trend towards health and quality of life [1]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenues of 7.897 billion CNY, a 30.10% increase year-over-year, and a net profit of 732 million CNY, up 32.36% [2]. - The consumer segment generated 4.01 billion CNY in revenue, with significant growth in key product categories: 63.9% for cotton soft towels, 15.7% for high-end sanitary napkins, and 17.3% for comfortable cotton clothing [2]. - The medical segment's revenue reached 3.83 billion CNY, marking a 44.4% increase, driven by the acquisition of GRI, which boosted surgical consumables by 185.3% [2]. Growth Projections - The company is expected to continue its global expansion, focusing on high-value medical products and enhancing synergies from the GRI acquisition [3]. - The strategic plan for the next three years includes specific growth targets and an employee stock incentive program to drive internal motivation [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) projections for 2025-2027 are 1.78 CNY, 2.13 CNY, and 2.44 CNY, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 21.3, 17.9, and 15.6 [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 51.4 CNY per share [2][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 7.3 billion CNY and a net profit of 6.8 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.1% and 32.4% respectively [2]. - The medical business is experiencing robust growth driven by high-value products and expansion into overseas markets, with a revenue increase of 44.4% year-on-year [8]. - The consumer goods segment also shows strong performance, with a revenue increase of 19.1% year-on-year, led by strategic product categories [8]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 48.3%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [8]. - The company’s net profit margin for the same period was 9.3%, up by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [8]. - The projected total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 11.3 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 26.2% [4]. Business Segment Analysis - **Medical Business**: Revenue reached 38.3 billion CNY in the first three quarters, with significant growth in surgical consumables and high-end dressings [8]. - **Consumer Goods**: The segment generated 40.1 billion CNY in revenue, with notable growth in flagship products like sanitary napkins, which saw a 63.9% increase in sales [8]. Profitability and Cost Management - The company’s operating expenses have increased due to the integration of GRI, but overall profitability remains strong with a projected net profit of 10.0 billion CNY for 2025 [8]. - The report indicates a decrease in sales and management expense ratios, contributing to improved profitability metrics [8].

Summary of the Conference Call for稳健医疗 Company Overview - **Company**: 稳健医疗 (Steady Medical) - **Industry**: Medical Supplies and Health Consumer Products Key Points and Arguments 1. **Financial Performance**: In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue increase of 30% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 32%, indicating a recovery growth phase post-pandemic driven by the synergy between the medical and consumer segments [2][3][31] 2. **Medical Segment Growth**: The high-end dressing business saw a revenue growth of 30% in 2024 with a gross margin exceeding 50%. The surgical consumables business, after consolidating GRI, experienced a growth rate close to 200%, becoming a key driver for the medical segment [2][3][31] 3. **Consumer Products Segment**: The health consumer products segment focuses on four core categories: wet and dry cotton towels, sanitary napkins, adult clothing, and children's clothing. The sanitary napkin business grew over 60%, making it the fastest-growing category in the consumer segment [2][3][31] 4. **Brand Strategy**: The company achieved significant success in the cotton towel and sanitary napkin markets through a "hit product" strategy, with products like ultra-soft cotton towels and medical-grade sanitary napkins seeing growth rates exceeding 300% and doubling, respectively [2][20][21] 5. **E-commerce Expansion**: The company is actively expanding its online channels, particularly in live-streaming e-commerce, which, although currently below the industry average, has significant growth potential and is expected to become a key driver for future performance [2][3][31] 6. **Mergers and Acquisitions**: Through acquisitions like GRI, the company has supplemented key categories and driven rapid growth in related businesses, enhancing its positioning as a one-stop procurement solution for consumables [2][15][31] 7. **Future Growth Projections**: The medical business is expected to maintain a growth rate of around 13% over the next two years, while the consumer products segment is projected to grow between 13% and 18%, indicating high-quality growth potential [3][31] 8. **Market Position**: In the low-value medical consumables industry, the company holds a competitive edge with a gross margin of 36.52%, higher than competitors like 澳美 and 正德 [10][31] 9. **International Market Strategy**: The company is enhancing its own brand development in international markets and expanding through cross-border e-commerce, focusing on both B2B and B2C channels [13][31] 10. **Product Structure**: The company’s main product categories include traditional wound care products, high-end dressings, surgical room consumables, disease control protection products, and health care products, with significant revenue contributions from each [14][31] Additional Important Insights 1. **Management and Ownership**: The actual controller, Mr. Li Jianxian, and his family hold nearly 70% of the shares, with a management team comprising experienced executives from both the medical and fast-moving consumer goods sectors [8][31] 2. **Market Dynamics**: The sanitary napkin market is experiencing significant changes, with traditional leading brands losing market share, providing opportunities for emerging brands like 奈斯公主 [28][29][30] 3. **Consumer Trends**: The company is focusing on enhancing brand image and values through various marketing strategies, including social media and live-streaming, to attract younger consumers [21][30] 4. **Challenges in Baby Clothing Segment**: The growth of the children's clothing segment is expected to be limited due to declining birth rates, with only single-digit growth projected for 2025 [19][23][31] This comprehensive summary captures the essential aspects of the conference call, highlighting the company's performance, strategic initiatives, and market positioning within the medical and consumer products sectors.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][6]. Core Insights - The company has shown a strong performance in Q3 2025, with revenue, net profit attributable to the parent company, and net profit excluding non-recurring items reaching 2.6 billion, 240 million, and 220 million yuan respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 27.7%, 42.1%, and 50.8% [4][11]. - Short-term outlook indicates that consumption is expected to accelerate in Q4 due to increased investment in new products and marketing, with strong momentum in elastic single products and stable growth from the medical segment [2][11]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company's revenue grew by 19%, with Q3 showing a sequential acceleration. The growth in revenue is attributed to the fading of public sentiment issues and the impact of new endorsements. Revenue growth rates for sanitary napkins, cotton soft towels, and adult apparel were 64%, 16%, and 17% respectively [11]. - The medical segment reported a year-on-year revenue increase of 44% for Q1-Q3 2025, with core products such as surgical consumables, high-end dressings, and health personal care items growing by 185.3%, 26.2%, and 24.6% respectively [11]. Profitability - The gross margin improved by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year and 0.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 48.3%. This improvement is driven by a higher proportion of high-margin products and stable discount rates [11]. - The report notes a decrease in the sales expense ratio by 1.8 percentage points, attributed to scale effects, reduced public relations expenses, and refined internal operations [11]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to the parent company of 1.0 billion, 1.2 billion, and 1.4 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 24, 20, and 17 times [2][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company has achieved continuous high-quality growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with a revenue of 7.897 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.10%. The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 732 million yuan, up 32.36% year-on-year [4][6] - The medical segment reported a revenue of 3.83 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year growth of 44.4%, driven by rapid development in core categories such as surgical consumables and high-end dressings [4][6] - The consumer segment generated a revenue of 4.01 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, led by strong sales of specific products like sanitary napkins [4][6] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.601 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.71%, and a net profit of 240 million yuan, up 42.11% year-on-year [4] - The company’s stock performance over the past year shows a 30.4% increase, outperforming the CSI 300 index [3] Medical Segment - The medical segment's revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 was 3.83 billion yuan, with significant growth in surgical consumables (185.3% increase), high-end dressings (26.2% increase), and health personal care products (24.6% increase) [4] - International sales channels contributed 2.18 billion yuan, marking an 81.7% year-on-year growth, with a notable increase in Southeast Asia and the Middle East [4] Consumer Segment - The consumer segment's revenue reached 4.01 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, with the fastest growth seen in sanitary napkins, which generated 760 million yuan, a 63.9% increase [4] - E-commerce channels showed robust growth, achieving 2.46 billion yuan in revenue, a 23.5% increase, with significant contributions from interest e-commerce platforms [4] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 11.511 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 995 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 28% and 43% respectively [6][7] - The estimated P/E ratios for the next few years are 23.93 for 2025, 20.35 for 2026, and 17.49 for 2027, indicating a favorable valuation trend [6][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong performance in Q3 2025, with total revenue of 7.9 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 730 million yuan, up 32.4% year-on-year [7] - The consumer segment, particularly the sanitary napkin category and e-commerce channels, has driven growth, with revenue from consumer products reaching 4.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.1% [7] - The medical segment has also shown robust growth, with medical consumables revenue of 3.83 billion yuan, up 44.4% year-on-year [7] - The overall gross margin has remained stable, with a slight increase to approximately 48.3% in Q1-Q3 2025, benefiting from a higher proportion of high-margin products in the consumer segment [7] - The company maintains a positive outlook for net profit growth, forecasting net profits of 1.045 billion yuan, 1.237 billion yuan, and 1.494 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 8.185 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 27.89%, followed by a recovery in 2024 with an expected increase of 9.69% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is estimated at 580.4 million yuan, down 64.84% year-on-year, with a forecasted recovery to 695.38 million yuan in 2024, representing a 19.81% increase [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is projected at 1.00 yuan, with a forecasted increase to 1.19 yuan in 2024 [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 41.44 in 2023 to 34.59 in 2024, indicating improved valuation as earnings recover [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company reported strong growth in the third quarter of 2025, with total revenue reaching 7.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.1%, and net profit attributable to the parent company at 732 million yuan, up 32.4% year-on-year [7] - The consumer goods segment continued to show high growth, with revenue of 4.01 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a 19.1% increase year-on-year, and a significant recovery in growth rate in the third quarter compared to the second quarter [7] - The medical business also demonstrated strong performance, with revenue of 3.83 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a 44.4% increase year-on-year, driven by both organic growth and the acquisition of GRI [7] - The company's profitability remained stable, with a gross margin of 48.3% and a net profit margin of 9.3% in the first three quarters [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 10.779 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20.1% [6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 1.026 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 47.6% [6] - Earnings per share are projected to be 1.76 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 23 [6]