Group 1: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices have experienced a significant rebound, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 100% as of December 9, 2025, driven by both investment demand and physical supply shortages [1] - The global silver supply is projected to remain flat at 813 million ounces in 2025, while demand is expected to decline to 1.12 billion ounces, resulting in a supply gap of 100 to 118 million ounces for the fifth consecutive year [4][5] - Investment demand for silver is bolstered by strong inflows into silver ETFs, with the largest ETF, SLV, holding 15,900 tons of silver, reflecting a 7% year-on-year increase [4] Group 2: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices have risen approximately 60% year-to-date, supported by investment demand and central bank purchases, with global central banks acquiring 220 tons of gold in Q3 2025, a 28% increase from the previous quarter [2] - The total global gold demand reached a record high of 1,313 tons in Q3 2025, with investment demand accounting for 537.33 tons, a 47.3% year-on-year increase [2] - The potential for continued monetary easing by central banks may sustain upward pressure on gold prices, although geopolitical tensions and a decline in investment demand could limit short-term gains [2][8] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The independence of the Federal Reserve is at risk, which could exacerbate domestic inflation and undermine the dollar's purchasing power, potentially leading to increased gold purchases by global central banks [3] - The labor market shows signs of slowing, with the annualized hiring rate dropping to approximately 21.5%, indicating a shift in employee retention behavior [7] - The possibility of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in December 2025 is high, but the central bank may issue hawkish statements to prevent market dependency on automatic policy adjustments [6][7]

Group 1: Silver Market Insights - Silver prices have experienced a significant rebound, with a year-to-date increase of over 100% as of December 9, driven by strong investment demand and supply shortages [1] - The global silver supply is expected to remain flat at 813 million ounces in 2025, while demand is projected to decline to 1.12 billion ounces, resulting in a supply gap of 100 to 118 million ounces for the fifth consecutive year [4][5] - Industrial demand for silver, particularly from the photovoltaic and electric vehicle sectors, is expected to grow, with silver usage in the photovoltaic industry projected to reach 7,560 tons by 2025, significantly increasing its share of total silver demand [4] Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have risen approximately 60% year-to-date, supported by investment demand and central bank purchases, with global central banks buying 220 tons of gold in Q3 2025, a 28% increase from the previous quarter [2] - The largest gold ETF, SPDR, held about 1,049.11 tons of gold as of December 8, reflecting a 20.5% year-on-year increase despite a slight decline from October [2] - The potential for continued monetary easing by the Federal Reserve could sustain upward momentum in gold prices, although there are concerns about a possible correction following interest rate cuts [1][8] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The independence of the Federal Reserve is at risk, which could exacerbate domestic inflation and undermine confidence in the dollar, potentially leading to increased gold purchases by global central banks [3] - The labor market in the U.S. is showing signs of slowing, with the hiring rate dropping to approximately 21.5%, indicating a shift in employee retention behavior [7] - Investors are currently favoring safer assets, moving funds from riskier equities and precious metals into money market funds in response to market uncertainties [7]

"充满变化""令人激动"，这是芝加哥商业交易所集团（CME Group）董事总经理兼全球金属产品主管Jin Hennig对今年金属市场的概括。 尽管10月以来金价震荡加剧，但据Hennig观察，黄金期货交易市场整体表现"比以往更健康"。她根据未 平仓合约数据分析称，当市场过度波动或出现大规模获利了结时，往往会出现交易量大幅增加、未平仓 合约数量下降的情况。"但10月的情况并非如此。虽然确实存在一些获利了结的仓位调整，但同时市场 上也有大量新建仓活动在进行，说明市场参与度持续提升。" Hennig告诉记者，当前整个贵金属板块都保持着良好的交易活跃度。 与此同时，亚太地区的交易参与度也值得关注。据Hennig提供的数据，目前芝商所黄金期货日均名义成 交额约850亿美元，亚洲交易时段交易量从占全球总量的25%提高至今年的近三分之一。 黄金、白银、钴等多种金属迎来配置热潮。芝商所黄金期货今年以来的日均名义交易额约850亿美元， 而2024年为每天约600亿美元，与此同时，其他贵金属品种也备受关注。芝商所微型白银期货合约今年 以来的日均成交量为2.2万手，同比增长22%；而铂金期货合约历史成交量排名前十五的交易日，全部 ...

Core Insights - The metal market in 2023 is characterized as "full of changes" and "exciting," with significant trading activity in gold, silver, and cobalt, driven by various market dynamics [1][4]. Trading Activity - CME Group's gold futures have seen an average daily nominal trading volume of approximately $85 billion in 2023, with projections of around $60 billion per day for 2024 [1]. - The trading volume for micro silver futures has increased by 22% year-on-year, averaging 22,000 contracts per day [1]. - Overall, CME's gold futures and options trading volume has increased by 20% compared to last year, reaching record levels [2]. Retail Investor Participation - Retail investors are significantly returning to the gold market, with micro gold futures and newly launched one-ounce gold futures seeing trading volumes more than doubling [2]. - The average daily trading volume for micro gold futures exceeds 1 million contracts, while one-ounce gold futures average around 180,000 contracts [2]. Central Bank Demand - Continuous gold purchases by global central banks, including those from China, the U.S., Europe, and Japan, are driving demand for physical gold, which also positively impacts other precious metals like silver and platinum [2]. Market Health and Activity - Despite increased volatility in gold prices since October, the overall performance of the gold futures market is described as healthier than before, with new positions being established alongside some profit-taking [3]. - The participation rate in the precious metals market remains strong, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, where the trading volume during Asian hours has increased from 25% to nearly one-third of the global total [3]. Cobalt Market Dynamics - The cobalt market has experienced significant fluctuations due to export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of Congo, leading to a rise in cobalt prices [4]. - The demand for cobalt is driven by companies looking to lock in costs and hedge risks, with current positions in CME's cobalt products reaching approximately 20,000 contracts [4]. Risk Management Tools - The frequency of black swan events has increased the demand for risk management tools, prompting CME to introduce short-term options for gold and silver [5]. Chinese Market Participation - Chinese clients are increasingly influential in CME trading, showing a preference for regulated trading environments and contributing significantly to global demand, particularly in copper, where they account for over 40% of global consumption [6]. - The ongoing transition to carbon neutrality is expected to sustain long-term demand for both industrial and precious metals, with a focus on infrastructure and energy storage needs [6]. - The recycling of metals is anticipated to gain momentum, with China making notable progress in enhancing resource utilization efficiency through large-scale recycling initiatives [6].

"充满变化""令人激动"，这是芝加哥商业交易所集团(CME Group)董事总经理兼全球金属产品主管Jin Hennig对今年金属市场的概括。 黄金、白银、钴等多种金属迎来配置热潮。芝商所黄金期货今年以来的日均名义交易额约850亿美元， 而2024年为每天约600亿美元，与此同时，其他贵金属品种也备受关注。芝商所微型白银期货合约今年 以来的日均成交量为2.2万手，同比增长22%；而铂金期货合约历史成交量排名前十五的交易日，全部 出现在今年的5月、6月和9月。 Hennig近日接受中国证券报记者专访时表示，今年以来贸易紧张局势、关税问题等挑战此起彼伏，但碳 中和转型背景下，能源结构调整带来的基础设施、储能需求，使金属市场长期前景总体依然积极。 ● 本报记者葛瑶 散户重回黄金市场 从整体来看，芝商所今年的黄金期货和期权交易数据再创新高，在去年已达到创纪录水平的基础上,今 年整体交易量增加了20%。 交易量激增的背后，最引人注目的现象是散户投资者正在大规模重返黄金市场。"从芝商所的合约交易 数据来看，面向散户的微型黄金期货合约(10盎司)和今年1月新推出的一盎司黄金期货合约，交易量均 增长了一倍以上。"Hennig ...

"充满变化""令人激动"，这是芝加哥商业交易所集团（CME Group）董事总经理兼全球金属产品主管Jin Hennig对今年金属市场的概括。 黄金、白银、钴等多种金属迎来配置热潮。芝商所黄金期货今年以来的日均名义交易额约850亿美元， 而2024年为每天约600亿美元，与此同时，其他贵金属品种也备受关注。芝商所微型白银期货合约今年 以来的日均成交量为2.2万手，同比增长22%；而铂金期货合约历史成交量排名前十五的交易日，全部 出现在今年的5月、6月和9月。 ● 本报记者 葛瑶 除黄金外，白银作为既是贵金属又是工业金属的特殊品种，同样表现亮眼。"白银往往跟随黄金上涨， 但节奏略有滞后。"Hennig称，从10月初开始，印度不断增加对白银实物的购进。此外，金价偏高令部 分投资者转向白银，这一行为进一步推升了价格。 钴市场今年也经历显著波动。受刚果（金）出口限制影响，钴价大幅上行。芝商所当前钴产品组合的持 仓量升至约2万手。Hennig告诉记者，企业为锁定成本、对冲风险，提前建仓的需求明显增强。 Hennig近日接受中国证券报记者专访时表示，今年以来贸易紧张局势、关税问题等挑战此起彼伏，但碳 中和转型背景下，能源 ...