贵金属日报 | 2025-07-31 美联储维持利率水平不变 贵金属仍陷震荡格局 策略摘要 今日凌晨，美联储议息会议上宣布维持利率在4.25%-4.50%不变，但理事沃勒、鲍曼投下反对票并主张降息。可见 美联储内部对于未来利率路径走向仍有分歧。此外，主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上避免了就9月降息给出指引，称当 前货币政策立场处于有利位置，强调依赖数据、通胀的目标比就业遥远，合理推测是关税对通胀的影响是短暂的。 而倘若降息与通胀走高在短时内均无法实现，则黄金的震荡格局或将延续。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-07-30，沪金主力合约开于772.70元/克，收于773.78元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动0.30%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于771.30元/克，收于770.68元/克，较昨日午后收盘下降0.32%。 2025-07-30，沪银主力合约开于9193.00元/千克，收于9192.00元/千克，较前一交易日收盘变动-0.03%。当日成交量 为689866手，持仓量为392370手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于9,145元/千克，收于9,090元/千克，较昨日午后收盘 ...

Group 1: Silver Market Overview - Silver prices have reached a nearly 13-year high, surpassing $39 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 35%, making it one of the best-performing asset classes this year [1] - The rise in silver prices is attributed to a combination of heightened geopolitical tensions and strong industrial demand, particularly from the photovoltaic and electric vehicle sectors [1] - The recent surge in silver prices is also linked to the correction of previously high gold-silver ratios, which had exceeded 100 in April-May, indicating that silver was previously undervalued [1] Group 2: Investment Trends - There is a new wave of consumer interest in silver investment products, with sales of silver bars and coins increasing by over 40% year-on-year [2] - Investors, particularly those who missed opportunities in gold, are now looking to capitalize on the rising silver market [2] - The Silver Institute's report suggests that silver prices are expected to accelerate further, potentially surpassing gold in investment value by 2025 due to geopolitical risks and inflation concerns [2] Group 3: Related Companies - China Silver Group (00815) is a major silver producer with a comprehensive business model covering silver manufacturing and trading, but reported a 20.97% decline in revenue to 4.319 billion yuan in 2024 [3] - Zijin Mining (02899) benefits from rising prices of silver, copper, and zinc, showing strong growth with a 5.55% increase in revenue to 78.928 billion yuan and a 62.39% rise in net profit to approximately 10.167 billion yuan [3] - Jiangxi Copper (00358) is a significant silver producer in China, with its silver business accounting for about 3.25% of total operations, which could yield additional profits if silver prices continue to rise [3]

2025 年 6 月，国际贵金属市场上演 "金银分化" 行情。伦敦现货白银价格今日暴力拉升，突破每盎司 37 美元关口，创 2012 年 3 月以来 13 年新高，年内累计涨幅逼近 30% ；而伦敦金现表现相对平淡，徘徊 于 3400 美元 / 盎司下方，金银走势分化态势显著，其价格波动也正深度影响着多元市场。 白银飙升：估值修复与多重因素共振，搅动市场生态 白银此番大涨，本质是一场迟到的估值修复。今年 4 月，金银比一度飙升至 106 的历史极值，远高于 40 - 80 的百年均值区间，白银成贵金属市场 "价值洼地"。随着黄金突破 3300 美元后陷入震荡，投机资 金大举涌入白银市场，COMEX 白银期货净多头持仓两周内激增，机构押注金银比向均值回归，推动白 银价格快速补涨。 黄金震荡：避险驱动但受资金分流影响，牵动投资布局 黄金牛市虽受国际政治格局、逆全球化趋势和去美元化需求驱动，但其避险属性带来的资金吸引力，短 期被白银分流。当市场交易逻辑从单纯避险，转向金银比价修复、押注白银工业与金融属性共振时，资 金更青睐处于 "洼地" 的白银，导致黄金涨幅受限。不过，黄金独特的货币金融属性，仍使其在长期具 备支撑 ...