Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Gold prices are expected to remain stable above the 20 - day moving average, fluctuating within the range of $5000 - 5250 with narrowing volatility. Short - term out - of - the - money call options above 1200 yuan can be held [1]. - Silver prices continue to be weakly volatile under multiple factors, testing the support of the 60 - day moving average. The silver price range is $80 - 90, and out - of - the money call options above 23000 yuan can be held [1]. - Platinum and palladium prices are suppressed by the reversal of macro - financial attributes and demand expectations. They generally follow the weak volatility of gold and silver. Platinum prices fluctuate within the range of $2000 - 2200, and palladium prices fluctuate within the range of $1590 - 1690 [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2604 contract closed at 1148.10 yuan/gram on March 12, down 0.34% from the previous day [1]. - AG2606 contract closed at 22062 yuan/kilogram on March 12, down 0.87% from the previous day [1]. - PT2606 contract closed at 564.65 on March 12, down 0.16% from the previous day [1]. - PD2606 contract closed at 416.60 yuan/gram on March 12, down 1.80% from the previous day [1]. Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold主力 contract closed at 5084.10 on March 12, down 1.93% from the previous day [1]. - COMEX silver主力 contract closed at 83.96 on March 12, down 2.28% from the previous day [1]. - NYMEX platinum主力 contract closed at 2130.70 dollars/ounce on March 12, down 1.96% from the previous day [1]. - NYMEX palladium主力 contract closed at 1638.00 on March 12, down 0.64% from the previous day [1]. Spot Prices - London gold was at 5077.94 on March 12, down 2.02% from the previous day [1]. - London silver was at 83.78 on March 12, down 2.27% from the previous day [1]. - Spot platinum was at 2150.00 dollars/ounce on March 12, down 2.49% from the previous day [1]. - Spot palladium was at 1618.90 on March 12, down 0.86% from the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange gold T + D was at 1146.26 yuan/gram on March 12, down 0.35% from the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange silver T + D was at 21851 yuan/kilogram on March 12, down 0.67% from the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum 9995 was at 553 yuan/gram on March 12, down 0.69% from the previous day [1]. Spreads - The spread of gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 was - 1.84 on March 12, with a historical 1 - year quantile of 46.10% [1]. - The spread of silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 was - 211 on March 12, with a historical 1 - year quantile of 60.60% [1]. - The spread of London gold - COMEX gold was - 9.13 on March 12, with a historical 1 - year quantile of 75.60% [1]. - The spread of London silver - COMEX silver was - 0.37 on March 12, with a historical 1 - year quantile of 21.70% [1]. Ratios - The ratio of COMEX gold/silver was 60.56 on March 12, up 0.36% from the previous day [1]. - The ratio of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver was 52.04 on March 12, up 0.54% from the previous day [1]. - The ratio of NYMEX platinum/palladium was 1.30 on March 12, down 1.33% from the previous day [1]. - The ratio of Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium was 1.36 on March 12, up 1.67% from the previous day [1]. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.27 on March 12, up 1.4% from the previous day [1]. - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.76 on March 12, up 3.3% from the previous day [1]. - The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.89 on March 12, up 2.2% from the previous day [1]. - The US dollar index was 99.74 on March 12, up 0.48% from the previous day [1]. - The offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.8821 on March 12, up 0.08% from the previous day [1]. Inventories - The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory was 105420 on March 12, up 0.49% from the previous day [1]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory was 309974 (in ten thousand) on March 12, up 23.07% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX gold inventory was 32656407 on March 12, down 0.20% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX silver inventory was 344324824 on March 12, down 0.06% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX gold registered warehouse receipt was 16697449 on March 12, down 0.17% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX silver registered warehouse receipt was 78610869 on March 12, up 0.34% from the previous day [1]. - The SPDR gold ETF holding was 1076 on March 12, down 0.13% from the previous day [1]. - The SLV silver ETF holding was 15539 on March 12, with no change from the previous day [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report Core Views - In the short term, platinum prices lack a clear driving force and will maintain a volatile trend due to the intertwining of multiple and bearish factors. In the medium to long term, the weakening of the US dollar index will help release the elasticity of platinum prices, and the price is expected to be volatile and bullish [2]. - Palladium prices currently follow the overall volatility of the precious metals sector. In the long term, the supply - demand situation is loosening, but short - term supply disturbances still exist. In the medium to long term, prices are expected to be volatile and bullish due to spot shortages and the weakening of the US dollar credit [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Platinum - On March 12, 2026, the main platinum contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange fell 0.94% to 564.65 yuan/gram [1]. - The main logic is that the US - Iran conflict provides support for precious metal prices, but high oil prices raise inflation expectations and delay the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, suppressing platinum prices. The weak US employment data in February has a weakened impact due to the US - Iran conflict. In the long run, the weakening of the US dollar index is beneficial to platinum prices, but the US - Iran conflict also has an additional impact [2]. - The outlook is volatile and bullish [2]. Palladium - On March 12, 2026, the main palladium contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange fell 2.08% to 416.60 yuan/gram [1]. - The main logic is that there is continuous uncertainty on the supply side. The US has made an anti - dumping affirmative preliminary ruling on Russian palladium, and Europe is considering new sanctions. On the demand side, palladium still faces structural pressure. Currently, it mainly follows the overall volatility of the precious metals sector [3]. - The outlook is volatile and bullish [3]. Commodity Indexes - On March 12, 2026, the comprehensive index, the commodity 20 index, the industrial products index, and the PPI commodity index of the CITIC Futures commodity index increased by 1.71%, 1.15%, 2.95%, and 1.53% respectively [49]. - The non - ferrous metals index on March 12, 2026, had a daily decline of 0.13%, a 5 - day increase of 0.88%, a 1 - month decline of 0.81%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.16% [50].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Gold's support level at $5000 on the 20-day moving average is crucial. It's advisable to wait for a clear trend before taking action. Observe the volatility of the target to see if it declines. In the short term, sell out-of-the-money call options above 1170 yuan [1] - Silver prices may still face downward pressure due to multiple factors. Pay attention to the support of the 60-day moving average. When volatility converges, the operating range is between $80 - $90. Sell out-of-the-money call options to earn time value [1] - Platinum and palladium will maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term. Platinum prices seek support around 550 yuan, and palladium may decline to around 410 yuan. Roll and sell out-of-the-money call options [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2604 contract closed at 1140.80 yuan/g, down 11.20 yuan or -0.97% from the previous day [1] - AG2604 contract closed at 21740 yuan/ten pieces, up 101 yuan or 0.47% [1] - PT2606 contract closed at 560.50 yuan/g, down 3.45 yuan or -0.61% [1] - PD2606 contract closed at 421.50 yuan, down 6.50 yuan or -1.52% [1] Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold main contract closed at $5181.30, up $88.00 or 1.73% [1] - COMEX silver main contract closed at $84.70, up $2.18 or 2.64% [1] - NYMEX platinum main contract closed at $2151.80 per ounce, up $23.60 or 1.11% [1] - NYMEX palladium main contract closed at $1657.00, up $7.00 or 0.42% [1] Spot Prices - London gold was at $5168.01, up $83.32 or 1.64% [1] - London silver was at $84.48, up $2.22 or 2.70% [1] - Spot platinum was at $2109.00, down $40.00 or -1.86% [1] - Spot palladium was at $1626.00, down $19.00 or -1.16% [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange gold T+D was at 1138.46 yuan/g, down 10.10 yuan or -0.88% [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange silver T+D was at 21350 yuan/ten pieces, up 282 yuan or 1.34% [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum 9995 was at 552 yuan/g, down 2 yuan or -0.41% [1] Basis - Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract basis was -2.34, up 1.10, with a 1-year historical quantile of 46.10% [1] - Silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract basis was -390, up 181, with a 1-year historical quantile of 60.60% [1] - London gold - COMEX gold basis was -13.29, down 4.68, with a 1-year historical quantile of 58.30% [1] - London silver - COMEX silver basis was -0.22, up 0.04, with a 1-year historical quantile of 34.60% [1] Price Ratios - COMEX gold/silver ratio was 61.18, down 0.55 or -0.88% [1] - Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver ratio was 52.47, down 0.76 or -1.43% [1] - NYMEX platinum/palladium ratio was 1.30, up 0.01 or 0.68% [1] - Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium ratio was 1.33, up 0.01 or 0.92% [1] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.15%, up 0.02 percentage points or 0.5% [1] - 2-year US Treasury yield was 3.56%, down 0.01 percentage points or -0.3% [1] - 10-year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.80%, down 0.02 percentage points or -1.1% [1] - US dollar index was 98.96, down 0.09 or -0.09% [1] - Offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9093, down 0.0091 or -0.13% [1] Inventory and Positions - Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory was 105033, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory was 255952 kg, down 16769 kg or -6.15% [1] - COMEX gold inventory was 33081878, down 18415 or -0.06% [1] - COMEX silver inventory was 349145895 ounces, down 2196030 ounces or -0.63% [1] - COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 16899870, down 103591 or -0.61% [1] - COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 81733733, up 498427 or 0.61% [1] - SPDR gold ETF holdings were 1073, down 2.57 or -0.24% [1] - SLV silver ETF holdings were 15762, down 47.90 or -0.30% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Platinum: Amidst the geopolitical issues that continue to disrupt the market, platinum prices are expected to oscillate. In the short - term, due to the interplay of multiple factors, the price lacks a clear driving force. In the long - term, the weakening of the US dollar index is beneficial for the release of platinum price elasticity, with an outlook of a moderately upward trend [2]. - Palladium: The supply of palladium remains uncertain, and the demand faces structural pressure. In the long - term, the supply - demand situation tends to ease, but in the short - term, supply disruptions still exist. Currently, it mainly follows the overall fluctuations of the precious metals sector, with an outlook of a moderately upward trend [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - On March 10, 2026, the platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose 4.26% to 562.55 yuan/gram, and the palladium main contract rose 4.02% to 423.55 yuan/gram [1]. Platinum Analysis - **Main Logic**: In the short - term, the US - Iran conflict provides support for precious metal prices, but high oil prices and delayed Fed rate - cut expectations suppress platinum prices. The US February non - farm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 92,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. In the long - term, the weakening of the US dollar index is favorable for platinum prices, but the US - Iran conflict also has an impact [2]. - **Outlook**: Moderately upward. The fundamental resilience and the weakening of the US dollar credit support this view [2]. Palladium Analysis - **Main Logic**: The supply of palladium remains uncertain. The US imposed anti - dumping duties on Russian palladium, and Europe is considering new sanctions. The demand side faces structural pressure. Overall, the long - term supply - demand is loosening, and short - term supply disruptions exist, mainly following the overall precious metals market [3]. - **Outlook**: Moderately upward. The shortage of physical palladium and the weakening of the US dollar credit support this view [3]. Index Information - **Special Index**: The commodity index was 2572.74, down 0.45%; the commodity 20 index was 2930.42, down 0.23%; the industrial products index was 2509.90, down 0.69% [50]. - **Sector Index**: On March 10, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index had a daily increase of 0.25%, a 5 - day increase of 0.31%, a 1 - month decrease of 0.05%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.82% [52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Silver prices may fluctuate greatly in the range of $70 - 110 due to factors such as regulatory restrictions and macro - news sentiment. Before the holiday, institutional ETFs continued to reduce positions and wait and see, leading to a decline in liquidity. It is recommended to wait for market volatility to fall and use methods such as selling options for unilateral positions to lock in risks [1] - Platinum prices will enter a consolidation phase. It is recommended to wait for the market to adjust in place before trying to buy or conduct short - term high - selling and low - buying operations [1] - Due to short - term news and capital sentiment, the volatility risk is relatively large. Pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average. Gold can be allocated to buy at - the - money or slightly out - of - the - money call options instead of going long after the market stabilizes. Light - position participation in long gold - silver ratio arbitrage is also recommended [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2604 contract closed at 1161.42 yuan/gram on January 30, down 87.70 yuan or 7.02% from January 29 [1] - AG2604 contract closed at 27941 yuan/kg on January 30, down 2950 yuan or 9.55% from January 29 [1] - PT2606 contract closed at 714.10 on January 30, up 19.30 or 2.78% from January 29 [1] - PD2606 contract closed at 526.60 yuan/gram on January 30, up 22.60 or 4.48% from January 29 [1] Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold main contract closed at 4907.50 on January 30, down 503.30 or 9.30% from January 29 [1] - COMEX silver main contract closed at 85.25 on January 30, down 30.54 or 26.37% from January 29 [1] - NYMEX platinum main contract closed at 2178.20 dollars/ounce on January 30, down 458.70 or 17.40% from January 29 [1] - NYMEX palladium main contract closed at 1701.00 on January 30, down 334.00 or 16.41% from January 29 [1] Spot Prices - London gold was at 4880.03 on January 30, down 497.13 or 9.25% from the previous value [1] - London silver was at 85.26 on January 30, down 30.61 or 26.42% from the previous value [1] - Spot palladium was at 2300.00 dollars/ounce on January 30, down 492.00 or 17.62% from the previous value [1] - Spot rhodium was at 1820.00 on January 30, down 286.00 or 13.58% from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 1163.99 yuan/gram on January 30, down 79.41 or 6.39% from January 29 [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D was at 27530 yuan/kg on January 30, down 2468 or 8.23% from January 29 [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum 9995 was at 638 yuan/gram on January 30, down 9.31% from the previous value [1] Basis - The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract was 2.57, up 8.29 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 46.10% [1] - The basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract was - 411, up 482 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 60.60% [1] - The basis of London gold - COMEX gold was - 27.47, up 6.17 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 28.70% [1] - The basis of London silver - COMEX silver was 0.01, down 0.07 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 74.10% [1] Price Ratios - The ratio of COMEX gold/silver was 57.57 on January 30, up 10.83 or 23.18% from the previous value [1] - The ratio of SHFE gold/silver was 41.57 on January 30, up 1.13 or 2.80% from the previous value [1] - The ratio of NYMEX platinum/palladium was 1.28 on January 30, down 0.02 or - 1.18% from the previous value [1] - The ratio of GZFE platinum/rhodium was 1.36 on January 30, down 0.02 or - 1.63% from the previous value [1] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.26% on January 30, up 0.02 or 0.5% from the previous value [1] - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.52% on January 30, down 0.01 or - 0.3% from the previous value [1] - The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.90% on January 30, up 0.01 or 0.5% from the previous value [1] - The US dollar index was 97.12 on January 30, up 0.95 or 0.99% from the previous value [1] - The offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9589 on January 30, up 0.0107 or 0.15% from the previous value [1] Inventory and Positions - The SHFE gold inventory was 103029 on January 30, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The SHFE silver inventory was 455068 (in ten - grams) on January 30, down 26940 or - 5.59% from the previous value [1] - The COMEX gold inventory was 35748596 on January 30, down 128604 or - 0.36% from the previous value [1] - The COMEX silver inventory was 405886807 on January 30, down 2366533 or - 0.58% from the previous value [1] - The COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 19038541 ounces on January 30, up 253295 or 1.35% from the previous value [1] - The COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 104879945 on January 30, down 3277493 or - 3.03% from the previous value [1] - The SPDR gold ETF position was 1087 tons on January 30, up 0.57 or 0.05% from the previous value [1] - The SLV silver ETF position was 15523 on January 30, unchanged from the previous value [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) has announced an increase in margin requirements for gold, silver, and other precious metal futures contracts following significant price declines, aiming to ensure adequate collateral coverage amid heightened market volatility [1][10]. Margin Requirement Adjustments - CME has raised margin requirements for gold futures from 6% to 8% for non-high-risk accounts and from 6.6% to 8.8% for high-risk accounts [3][4]. - Silver futures have seen a similar increase, with non-high-risk accounts' margin rising from 11% to 15% and high-risk accounts from 12.1% to 16.5% [5][6]. Market Context and Mechanism Changes - The margin increase is part of a broader trend of risk management enhancements by CME, transitioning from fixed margin amounts to a dynamic percentage of contract value [6][8]. - This change means that during periods of market turbulence, higher collateral will be automatically required, increasing the cost of leverage for traders [8][9]. Historical Precedents and Market Impact - Historical data suggests that when exchanges raise margin requirements, it often indicates the end of bullish trends or the beginning of significant corrections [11][12]. - The increased margin requirements may marginally push out traders who cannot quickly meet the new collateral demands, potentially leading to reduced market liquidity [12][13]. Systemic Risk Management - CME's actions reflect a consensus among global exchanges to prioritize the suppression of systemic risk over allowing leverage expansion, especially in the context of heightened volatility in precious metals [15][16].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report maintains a bullish view on the precious metals market, expecting an optimistic path for interest rate cuts. However, it suggests short - term investors to wait and watch due to uncertainties in US platinum tariffs and the actual nomination of the Fed Chairman, and to look for buying opportunities after price stabilization [5] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On January 30, 2026, due to the strengthening of the US dollar and the decline of market sentiment, platinum and palladium futures contracts on GFEX tumbled. The platinum main contract dropped 8.79% to 657 yuan per gram, and the palladium main contract dropped 7.25% to 48.85 yuan per gram. The change in market expectations due to the possible appointment of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman led to a short - term strengthening of the US dollar, suppressing precious metal prices. Also, OME's increase in margin requirements cooled market sentiment [3] Fundamental Situation - Supply: In 2026, major platinum and palladium mining companies are expected to maintain stable production with output recovery, but overall production is limited due to few new project launches. Global platinum mine and refined production are expected to rise 2.8% and 4.8% to 173.6 tons and 228.2 tons respectively, and palladium mine and refined production are expected to rise 0.3% and 2.2% to 198.9 tons and 209.4 tons respectively. Attention should be paid to short - term supply risks caused by bad weather, labor disputes, and power shortages [4] - Demand: In 2026, global economic recovery will drive the continued recovery of platinum industrial demand and an upward trend in jewelry demand, offsetting the decline in automotive catalyst demand. Platinum investment demand may be stimulated by price fluctuations and domestic futures listing, with an expected 0.7% increase to 266.1 tons. Palladium demand is under significant downward pressure, with an expected 1.7% decline to 282.4 tons [4] - Supply - demand balance: In 2026, there will be a 37.9 - ton shortage in the global platinum market and a 16.9 - ton surplus in the palladium market [4] Summary and Strategy - The short - term geopolitical tension remains unresolved, and the market expects Trump's influence on the Fed to increase. The report maintains a bullish view but suggests short - term investors to wait and watch due to uncertainties and look for buying opportunities after price stabilization [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term news and capital sentiment have a significant impact on the volatility risk of precious metals. Gold long positions should take profit on rallies, and one can buy at dips for at - the - money options. [1] - Silver price volatility remains high, institutional ETFs continue to reduce positions and stay on the sidelines. It is recommended to pay attention to risk control measures of exchanges and maintain the idea of buying on dips with light positions. [1] - The easing of the supply tightness in the London palladium spot market may limit its upside space, so short - term observation is advisable. [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Price - The AU2604 contract closed at 1249.12 on January 29, up 62.92 (5.30%) from January 28. [1] - The AG2604 contract closed at 30891 on January 29, up 1672 (5.72%) from January 28. [1] - The PT2606 contract closed at 714.10 on January 29, up 19.30 (2.78%) from January 28. [1] - The PD2606 contract closed at 526.60 on January 29, up 22.60 (4.48%) from January 28. [1] Foreign Futures Closing Price - The COMEX gold主力 contract closed at 5410.80 on January 29, down 0.20 (0.00%) from January 28. [1] - The COMEX silver主力 contract closed at 115.79 on January 29, down 0.84 (-0.72%) from January 28. [1] - The NYMEX platinum主力 contract closed at 2636.90 on January 29, down 68.20 (-2.52%) from January 28. [1] - The NYMEX palladium主力 contract closed at 2035.00 on January 29, down 60.50 (-2.89%) from January 28. [1] Spot Price - London gold was at 5377.16, down 36.65 (-0.68%) from the previous value. [1] - London silver was at 115.87, down 0.74 (-0.63%) from the previous value. [1] - Spot palladium was at 2792.00, up 121.00 (4.53%) from the previous value. [1] - Another spot palladium was at 2106.00, up 92.00 (4.57%) from the previous value. [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 1243.40, up 20.36 (5.01%) from the previous value. [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D was at 29998, up 688 (2.35%) from the previous value. [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum 9995 was at 704, up 33 (4.99%) from the previous value. [1] Basis - The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 was - 5.72, down 3.56 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 46.10%. [1] - The basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 was - 893, down 984 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 60.60%. [1] - Another basis was 5.08, up 6.87 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 99.60%. [1] - The basis of London gold - COMEX gold was not provided, and the basis of London silver - COMEX silver was - 0.02, down 0.10 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 69.00%. [1] Price Ratio - COMEX gold/silver was 46.73, up 0.33 (0.72%) from the previous value. [1] - Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold/silver was 40.44, down 0.16 (-0.40%) from the previous value. [1] - NYMEX platinum/palladium was 1.30, up 0.00 (0.38%) from the previous value. [1] - Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum/palladium was 1.36, down 0.02 (-1.63%) from the previous value. [1] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.24, down 0.02 (-0.5%) from the previous value. [1] - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.53, down 0.03 (-0.8%) from the previous value. [1] - The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.89, down 0.01 (-0.5%) from the previous value. [1] - The US dollar index was 96.16, down 0.19 (-0.19%) from the previous value. [1] - The offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9482, up 0.0049 (0.07%) from the previous value. [1] Inventory and Position - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory was 103029, unchanged (0.00%) from the previous value. [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory was 482008, down 26360 (-5.19%) from the previous value. [1] - The COMEX gold inventory was 35877200, unchanged (0.00%) from the previous value. [1] - The COMEX silver inventory was 408253340, down 3431295 (-0.83%) from the previous value. [1] - The COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 18785246, down 47826 (-0.25%) from the previous value. [1] - The COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 108157437, up 482886 (0.45%) from the previous value. [1] - The SPDR gold ETF position was 1087, down 3.43 (-0.31%) from the previous value. [1] - The SLV silver ETF position was 15523, down 112.76 (-0.72%) from the previous value. [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [6] Core Viewpoints - The inflation narrative trend remains unchanged, and future price recovery paths depend on supply - side policy directions [2] - There is a certain divergence in domestic and overseas economic outlooks. Overseas economic prosperity has declined since October, while China's exports and new orders are still positive [4] - In the short - term, attention should be paid to the rotation possibility of low - valuation sectors in the commodity market [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized boosting consumption and anti - "involution" competition, and the central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points on January 15th [2] - The Ministry of Finance released 5 important policy documents on January 20th to support multiple loan fields, aiming to expand domestic demand [2] - Geopolitical tensions between Iran and Venezuela have tightened, and Trump's actions have strained US - European relations, accelerating the global de - dollarization trend [2] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) adjusted the margin parameters of some silver, platinum and palladium futures contracts on the 27th [2] - On January 28th, the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%, with two members opposing and preferring a 25 - point rate cut [3] - After the Fed's decision, the US dollar index rose and spot gold reached $5500 per ounce [3] - The US Treasury Secretary said that Trump's candidate for Fed Chairman may be announced in about a week [3] Domestic and Overseas Economic Conditions - Since October, overseas economic prosperity has declined, but China's exports and new orders are positive. In December, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year, and imports increased by 5.7% [4] - China's GDP growth target of 5% in 2025 was achieved. In December, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales slowed to 0.9%, and the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.2%. The annual fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8%, and real estate development investment decreased by 17.2% [4] - China's official manufacturing PMI in December was 50.1, returning to the expansion range, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.2, both better than expected. The US ISM manufacturing index in December dropped slightly to 47.9, and the European manufacturing PMI in January slightly exceeded expectations [4] - The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged, with one member supporting a rate increase. The US Treasury Secretary affirmed the strong - dollar policy and denied intervention in the yen exchange rate [4] Commodity Market - In the non - ferrous sector, the long - term supply restriction has not been alleviated, but the short - term upward trend may slow down [5] - In the energy sector, the US will "distribute" Venezuelan oil, Trump hopes to lower oil prices to $50 per barrel, and the US Energy Secretary called for doubling global crude oil production [5] - In the chemical industry sector, the "anti - involution" and stock - commodity linkage space of methanol, PTA and other varieties are worthy of attention [5] - In the agricultural products sector, attention should be paid to weather forecasts and short - term pig diseases [5] - In the black metal sector, attention should be paid to domestic policy expectations and the possibility of low - valuation repair [5] - In the precious metals sector, the accelerating de - dollarization trend has opened up room for the rise of gold [5] Strategy - The strategy for commodities and stock index futures is overall neutral [6] Important News - The Shanghai Gold Exchange adjusted the margin level and price limit ratio of the silver deferred contract on January 30th [7] - Trump downplayed the risk of US dollar depreciation, and the euro - US dollar exchange rate broke through 1.20 [7] - On January 28th, Iran expressed its willingness to negotiate but would defend its interests if pressured. Trump sent a fleet to Iran and threatened more severe strikes [7] - Iran's Supreme Leader's defense advisor warned that any US military action would lead to an immediate, comprehensive and unprecedented response from Iran [7] - The Fed's FOMC interest rate decision was in line with expectations, and Fed Chairman Powell suggested that the next Fed Chairman should be separated from politics [7] - US Treasury Secretary Besent discussed multiple topics, including the Fed Chairman candidate, monetary policy, exchange rate and the S&P 500 index breakthrough [7]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Future market is more affected by geopolitical situation, and attention should be paid to the Fed's decision early on Thursday. In general, the short - term market is affected by news and capital sentiment, and the market maintains a relatively strong volatile trend. Gold long positions should take the opportunity to take profits at high prices, and one - sided trading can buy out - of - the - money call options instead of long positions [1]. - For silver, rising raw material costs may accelerate enterprises to replace silver with other metals, suppressing industrial demand, while new demand in fields such as AI is expected to support the silver price. Regulatory restrictions have cooled speculative sentiment, and ETF holdings have continued to decline. Short - term silver prices may still experience large - scale fluctuations, and it is recommended to pay attention to risk control measures of exchanges and maintain the idea of buying on dips with light positions [1]. - Platinum and palladium are supported by their macro - financial attributes and tight supply patterns, and their prices are linked to the rise of gold, with the price center continuously rising. However, the easing of supply tightness in the London spot market may limit the upside space, and it is recommended to buy on dips and sell on rallies within a day [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Domestic Futures Closing Prices - On January 27, the AU2604 contract closed at 1148.38 yuan/gram, up 0.44% from the previous day; the AG2604 contract closed at 28300 yuan/kilogram, up 4.02%; the PT2606 contract closed at 705.70 yuan/gram, down 5.24%; the PD2606 contract closed at 523.00 yuan, down 2.21% [1]. 2. Foreign Futures Closing Prices - On January 27, the COMEX gold主力 contract closed at 5179.60, up 3.49%; the COMEX白银主力 contract closed at 112.35, up 8.14%; the NYMEX铂金主力 contract closed at 2645.10, up 2.70%; the NYMEX palladium主力 contract closed at 1950.50, down 2.11% [1]. 3. Spot Prices - The current price of London gold is 5180.23, up 3.40%; London silver is 111.91, up 7.73%; spot platinum is 2642.50, down 5.99%; spot palladium is 1932.00, down 7.65%. The Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D is 1142.89 yuan/gram, down 0.12%; silver T + D is 28732 yuan/kilogram, up 4.43%; platinum 9995 is 751 yuan/gram, down 6.48% [1]. 4. Basis - The current value of gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 is - 5.49, down 6.43% from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 46.10%; silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 is 432, up 126, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 60.60%; London gold - COMEX gold is 5.08, up 6.87, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 99.60%; London silver - COMEX silver is - 0.02, down 0.10, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 69.00% [1]. 5. Price Ratios - The current value of COMEX gold/silver is 46.10, down 4.30%; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold/silver is 40.58, down 3.44%; NYMEX platinum/palladium is 1.36, up 4.91%; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum/palladium is 1.35, down 3.10% [1]. 6. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.24, up 0.5%; the 2 - year US Treasury yield is 3.53, down 0.8%; the 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield is 1.90, unchanged; the US dollar index is 95.77, down 1.32%; the offshore RMB exchange rate is 6.9336, down 0.22% [1]. 7. Inventory and Positions - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory is 103029, unchanged; silver inventory is 544244 (in ten - grams), down 5.15%; COMEX gold inventory is 35941502, unchanged; COMEX silver inventory is 415146297, down 0.02%; COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts are 18847080 ounces, up 0.01%; COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts are 113269767, down 0.87%; SPRD gold ETF holdings are 1087, up 0.08%; SLV silver ETF holdings are 15848, down 0.79% [1].