12月11日，港股三大指数集体高开，恒指涨0.66%，国指涨0.58%，恒生科技指数涨0.55%。热门ETF方 面，恒生ETF（159920）、恒生国企ETF（159850）早盘高开后窄幅震荡，此前盘中均一度涨至1%附 近。 美联储2025年12月议息会议降息25bps，符合市场预期。鲍威尔表示政策利率处于良好位置，暗示明年1 月将暂停降息，但利率方向并非是双向的。本次点阵图显示明年目标利率中枢为3.4%，与9月保持一 致，同时上调明年美国经济增速预测，下调明年通胀预测，维持失业率预测不变。中信证券预计美联储 将在1月暂停降息、剩余两次鲍威尔作为负责人的议息会议共计还有25bps降息。若哈塞特成为新任美联 储负责人，明年下半年仍有降息空间；若哈塞特以外的候选人执掌美联储，预计明年下半年美联储可能 暂停降息。市场方面，预计美联储对明年经济前景乐观的预期和对AI提高生产力的认可将给市场注入 能量，今年美股市场出现"圣诞老人行情"概率较大。 从国内基本面看，中国经济正处于转型升级的关键期。"十五五"规划明确提出壮大实体经济、推动科技 创新、发展新质生产力、扩大内需四大战略方向。从流动性的角度来看，12月10日，美联 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a notable decline, with the Hang Seng Index falling below the 26,000-point mark, influenced by internal policy focus and expectations for a year-end rally [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index opened down 0.44%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.51% [1] - Popular ETFs such as the Hang Seng ETF (159920) and the Hang Seng China Enterprises ETF (159850) also saw slight declines of around 0.5% [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The market is shifting focus from external factors to internal policies, particularly looking forward to the Central Economic Work Conference in mid-December [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to be further detailed, setting the tone for fiscal measures leading up to 2026 [1] Group 3: Global Economic Influences - The U.S. labor market showed significant cooling in September, with the unemployment rate reaching 4.4%, the highest since October 2021 [1] - Expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December have increased, which may improve market sentiment in Hong Kong [1] - A decrease in global risk-free interest rates is anticipated to release more liquidity, potentially attracting overseas funds back to the Hong Kong market [1] - The decline of the U.S. dollar index is expected to support the appreciation of the Renminbi, benefiting Hong Kong's Renminbi-denominated assets [1] Group 4: Notable Investment Targets - Key investment targets include the core broad-based Hang Seng ETF (159920), the AI and platform economy-focused Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180), and the Hang Seng China Enterprises ETF (159850) [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent pullback in Hong Kong stocks is primarily due to adjustments in both domestic and external expectations, but the medium-term liquidity easing logic remains unchanged [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the midday close on August 6, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.18%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell by 0.03%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.03% [1] - Popular ETFs such as the Hang Seng China Enterprises ETF (159850) and the Hang Seng ETF (159920) experienced slight gains [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Huatai Securities recommends focusing on sectors with improving sentiment and low valuations, particularly emphasizing the technology sector [1] - Short-term trading should revolve around mid-year performance reports, with a focus on: 1. Game and internet e-commerce leaders that have attractive valuations and improving sentiment 2. Innovative pharmaceuticals and non-bank financials that have slightly higher forward 12-month valuation percentiles but strong earnings realization [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights that Xiaomi Group reported record-high revenue and profit for Q1 2025, with total revenue reaching RMB 111.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 47.4% [1] - In terms of business segments, the revenue from the mobile and AIoT division was RMB 92.7 billion, up 22.8% year-on-year, while the revenue from the smart electric vehicle and AI innovation division was RMB 18.6 billion [1] - The adjusted net profit for the quarter was RMB 10.7 billion, marking a historical high with a year-on-year growth of 64.5% [1] Group 2 - Citic Securities predicts that macroeconomic factors, AI developments, and market structure will drive a continued reversal in the Hong Kong stock market in the second half of the year [1] - The report notes that the revenue share of Hong Kong-listed companies from the Americas has dropped to 1.8% in 2024, with a higher weight in real estate and consumer sectors, making it more attractive compared to A-shares amid domestic economic recovery [1] - The performance of Hong Kong tech giants is expected to exceed profit expectations in the second half of the year, similar to the post-ChatGPT release performance in the US stock market [1] Group 3 - Notable investment targets include the Hang Seng ETF (159920), Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180), and Hang Seng Consumer ETF (513230), among others [2]